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The Insurance Industry Needs More Dynamic Models

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Simpler, but more dynamic capital models are what the insurance industry needs in order to avoid suffering some of the same problems it did during the financial crisis that began in 2008, according to the Willis Economic Capital Forum (WECF), a Georgia-State-University-based initiative from the academic and analysis arm of Willis Group.

Markus Stricker, director of the WECF, said in a statement that “everyone in the industry would be interested in reducing the complexity of models, making things more transparent and thus easier to understand. We ought to have learnt in the years since the financial crisis that our economic capital models need to be more dynamic and more insightful.”

He went on, explaining that looking at economic capital models in a static manner is not very helpful. Instead, he suggests insurers develop models that are simpler, yet still useful and easier to use. Stricker suggests learning from other industries that have such models in place.

For example, airplane manufacturers run stress tests to find out how much pressure they can put on a wing before it breaks off, while pharmaceutical companies have a rigorous, structured process they must go through to get a medication validated.

“I think we need a similar set of standard procedures to validate the methods that financial companies use to calculate solvency related key figures,” said Stricker. Currently, standardized processes do not exist for validating economic capital models.

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It seems insurance companies, regulators and brokers could all benefit from a validation process that is transparent and efficient.

Groundbreaking Flood Models for Latin America

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Willis Re has introduced long-awaited flood models for Latin America through their research arm Willis Research Network (WRN). The models focused on large event scenarios for key cities such as Sao Paulo, Santiago and Bogota.

“The flood models provide South American insurance and reinsurance firms, as well as local governmental organizations, with new information that helps to identify and manage their exposure to flash floods caused by heavy rains and riverine overflow. Related results will be available for individual companies as well as the market as a whole and will have implications on planning, reinsurance and risk mitigation.”

The news was presented during the Geneva Association‘s 2nd Climate Change and Insurance meeting held in Sao Paulo last month by Dr. Juan Enlgand of Willis Re, who stated that these models might be used to consider the potential impact of climate change.

These models are greatly needed to say the least. Last year, floods and mudslides in Brazil caused 44 deaths and an estimated $1 billion in damages. In April, more than 250 died in Rio de Janeiro after torrential rains caused massive flooding and landslides. In June, more flooding in Brazil killed at least 41 and left more than 120,000 homeless. As Margo Black, CEO of Willis Re Brazil commented:

“Urban flood risk is an acute concern for Latin American re/insurers who have been challenged by growing losses and the lack of models to guide risk management.”

With Willis Re’s new models, it is hoped that future losses from almost-certain floods will be lessened in the ever-growing, major cities of South America.