Scientists from the University of California at Berkeley, and Texas Tech University expect more wildfires throughout North America and Europe by the end of the century as temperatures continue to rise across the globe. In summing up the results of their new study, which was conducted by using 16 different climate models (something they called “one of the most comprehensive projections to date of how climate change might affect global fire patterns”), one of the researchers was not necessarily surprised by the fact the threat is increasing. But he was surprised by how quickly it is increasing.
“In the long run, we found what most fear: increasing fire activity across large parts of the planet,” said study lead author Max Moritz.
“But the speed and extent to which some of these changes may happen is surprising.
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This obviously means that regions that cities, states and nations that are already struggling to control the wildfires of today (for example, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA) need to figure out new ways to adapt to an even-riskier future. “We need to learn how to coexist with fire,” said Moritz.
And as with seemingly everything regarding climate change, it seems that the world’s poorest, most-vulnerable region’s will have the hardest time adapting.
“In Southeast Asia alone, there are millions of people that depend on forested ecosystems for their livelihoods,” said study co-author David Ganz.
“Knowing how climate and fire interact are important factors that one needs to consider when managing landscapes to maintain these ecosystem goods and services.”
There is some good news, however. Equatorial regions may actually see fewer wildfires. This is due to projected increases in rainfall in those regions as the climate changes.
Other scientists who contributed to support the study include the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the U.S. Forest Service, the National Science Foundation and The Nature Conservancy.