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Terrorism Incidents Down, Disruption Up in 2015

A number of high-profile terrorism attacks worldwide have raised people’s fears this year, but the reality is that the number of attacks and deaths from such attacks actually decreased in 2015, according to Marsh’s 2016 Terrorism Risk Insurance Report.
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The report summarizes terrorism risk insurance trends, benchmarks terrorism insurance take-up rates and pricing, and offers risk management solutions for terrorism exposures.

The more current attacks, often perpetrated by a single individual or small group, are different from those carried out in the 1990s and 2000s when high profile locations were targeted. Individuals carrying out the more recent attacks may have no direct contact with a known terrorist organization, but could be drawn to them through writings and video, particularly on the internet, Marsh said.

These events can be very disruptive to operations in some companies. In the travel industry, for example:

  • About 10% of American travelers canceled booked trips due to the recent attacks in Egypt, France, Lebanon and Mali, which impacted $8.2 billion in travel spending, according to a survey by YouGov.
  • Booking losses for Air France were estimated to be €50 million ($56 million), the company said in a statement.
  • Airlines, hotel chains and travel websites experienced drops in their stock prices after this year’s airport bombing in Brussels.

In the United States, the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2015 (TRIPRA) offers businesses a federal backstop against terrorism-related losses. While the overall take-up rate for TRIPRA coverage in the U.S. increased slightly in 2015, it has remained in the 60% range since 2009, Marsh said.

Managing terrorism risk requires a combination of strategies that protect people, property and finances. On the financial side, the choice is whether to retain or transfer the risk with insurance. But the changing pattern of terrorism risk has some companies asking if they are adequately insured for business interruption and related losses. They also wonder how to prepare for potential losses from cyber terrorism and other events.

Other key takeaways from the report include:

  • As small group and “lone wolf” terrorist attacks appear to be the changing face of terrorism, many organizations are assessing their coverage for indirect losses stemming from business interruption risks.
  • Following the 2015 passage of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (TRIPRA), take-up rates in the US edged up for TRIPRA terrorism coverage embedded in property programs.
  • Among industry sectors, media organizations had the highest take-up rate for terrorism insurance in 2015.
  • Workers’ compensation markets for terrorism risks generally stabilized.
  • The number of Marsh-managed captives accessing TRIPRA increased by 17% from 2014 to 2015, but many captives that could offer a terrorism program do not.
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Workers Compensation Issues to Watch in 2014

With 2013 behind us, here are my thoughts on some workers compensation issues to watch for in 2014:

Rates Continue to Climb

In most of the U.S., rates for workers compensation insurance continue to rise. Rates are being driven by rising medical costs, the low interest rate environment, and the general unprofitability of the line of business.

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Potential Expiration of TRIPRA

Unless Congress takes action, the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (TRIPRA) will expire on Dec. 31, 2014. Companies with high employee concentrations in certain cities are already seeing fewer options, with some carriers scaling back their writings to reduce their exposure to a potential terrorism event.

Impact of the Affordable Health Care Act (AHCA)

There has been much speculation about the potential impact the AHCA will have on workers compensation. With a finite number of medical providers available to handle the increased utilization, it is imperative that workers compensation payers identify the providers who deliver the best clinical outcomes for injured workers.

Integrated Disability Management

More employers are realizing that the impact of federal employment laws, like the Americans with Disabilities Act and the Family and Medical Leave Act, must be considered on workers compensation claims. Companies are also recognizing the value of managing non-occupational disability so that valued employees can get back to the workplace and be productive. Integrated disability management programs are the next generation of claims-handling and will expand in the future.

State Legislative Issues

Several states that passed significant reform legislation in the last two years are working to implement those reforms. Passing a law is only the first step, as the rules, regulations, and implementation of those laws determine if they will achieve their intended purpose. The most significant states to watch are in California, New York, and Oklahoma.

When California passed SB 863 in 2012, the expectation from the state’s legislature was that it would increase benefits to injured workers, while lowering costs for employers in the state. Litigation and unanticipated consequences of the bill have resulted in increased complexity and continually rising insurance rates. There is currently talk of potential clean-up legislation to go along with continued efforts at implementation. We will know by the end of the year whether SB 863 will be able to produce the promised cost savings.

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New York streamlined its assessment process, resulting in a significant reduction of the assessment rate for most employers. Since these rates are adjusted annually, it remains to be seen if these assessment savings will continue into the future.

The big news in Oklahoma is the bill that allowed employers to opt-out of workers compensation starting in February 2014. There have been delays in developing the rules and regulations supporting the opt-out plans, and this has in turn delayed carriers’ development of policies to cover new benefit plans. It appears unlikely that everything will be in place in time for employers to opt out beginning in February.

Vendor consolidation

In the last few years, there has been significant vendor consolidation in the workers compensation industry. First on the third-party administrator side and most recently in medical management. All this consolidation is making buyers of these services uneasy.

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They question how this will impact the quality of the services they receive and wonder how their goals of reducing costs align with the vendors’ goals of increasing revenues.

Analytics

Despite the huge amount of premium, exposure and claims data produced by the workers compensation industry, many complain about the lack of actionable information. As an industry, we will see a continued focus on the use of more meaningful analytics that can assist in identifying savings opportunities, formulating action plans, and measuring the impact of change.

Assessing ROI for Medical Cost Management Efforts

Programs including bill review, utilization review, and nurse case-management are all necessary components of any successful workers compensation program. It is important, however, that these programs are constantly monitored to ensure they are being used appropriately.

Please join me Jan. 15, for a webinar discussing these issues and other potential legislative developments to watch in 2014.  Click here to register