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The Risk Management Angle on Time’s “10 Ideas for the Next 10 Years”

Each year, Time magazine does a story on “10 ideas that are changing the world.” This year, the editors have made it a more forward-thinking feature, labeling it “10 Ideas for the Next 10 Years.” And as is the case with most everything these days, I managed to see several risk management-related angles in some of the trends they expect to shape the coming decade.

Here is a run-down with some thoughts.

time 10 ideas for the next 10 years

Time’s Idea: Remapping the World
“Good borders make good neighbors. Bad ones make wars”

This idea basically says that physically redrawing some national borders — or at least minimizing their importance over logistical factors like multi-national infrastructure — will cause less international and intra-national conflict. Obviously, the risk management benefits here would come from less political risk across the globe.

If Sudan could be divided, the civil wars there may become less intractable and economic opportunities may open up to multinationals — which could help both companies otherwise too concerned about conflict to set up shop in-country and the people living there who desire jobs and better access to goods. A world full of “good neighbors” also clearly benefits any utilities or other companies trying to lay down the transnational pipelines or internet cables that will be increasingly necessary in our increasingly globalized future.

Particularly in the Middle East.

Time’s Idea: Bandwidth Is the New Black Gold
“And it’s a scarce resource”

An under-reported risk, the dependence on bandwidth for real-time information exchange is increasingly vital to all companies and organizations. Whenever this is interrupted, so is business. Today, aside from major disaster situations, this interruption is mostly an inconvenience. But in the future, as more and more of this bandwidth is taken up by video and other resource-intensive applications, there may be real problems.

In time, the mere slowdowns we see today may be eclipsed by full-scale information traffic jams. But beyond that, the deeper problems will be with high prices and possible profiteering. As demand for bandwidth goes up, suppliers will logically be able to charge more, as happens in energy markets.

Can we rely on private industry — the cable and telephone companies — to build its way out of these problems? In a word, maybe.

It will be difficult to manage this risk individually, but organizations need to be thinking about these “information jams” in years to come. Tim Wu of the New American Foundation explains it further in this video.

Time’s Idea: In Defense of Failure
“Making mistakes is a great American freedom”

This idea centers on the idea that the great innovation that marked the United States’ ascendence to the front of the global economy in the 20th century was greatly aided by the fact that its citizens were not afraid to fail. They took big chances knowing that even if they failed, they would have a chance “to try, try again” without being entirely wiped out.

The article worries that this courageousness is waning, mainly due to macroeconomic realities, and that “rather than launch a quixotic war on failure” as the author argues has been done against complex financial instruments on Wall Street, “we should be using what we’ve learned to build a system that fails better.”

This, of course, is the new tenant of risk management: We should never try to avoid all risks — we just need to make sure we are taking calculated risks with contingencies built in for failure.

Time’s Idea: TV Will Save the World
“In a lot of places, it’s the next best thing”

Globally, the biggest impediment to better disaster preparedness and building codes is poverty. Places like Haiti and rural China just don’t have the resources to mandate and enforce developed world standards for things like foundations and reinforced concrete.

Somewhere lower on the list of challenges — but no less worth striving to overcome — is the educational gap. More so than in the developing world, the United States and Europe have learned from their past disasters. A lot of this has come from in-depth, post-mortm investigations of disasters. And a lot of the demand for such investigations has always come from the proliferation of TV news and the fact that citizens are generally outraged that such calamities could happen. People want to know why people were allowed to die or houses were permitted to burn, and the impetus behind that outrage often comes from seeing the tragic images in moving picture form on TV.

Too much TV has been associated with violence, obesity and social isolation. But TV is having a positive impact on the lives of billions worldwide, and as the spread of mobile TV, video cameras and YouTube democratize both access and content, it will become an even greater force

Sure, a lot of TV is more candy than vegetables (think Jersey Shore, SportsCenter or American Idol), but if you are still among those who erroneously think that television will rot your brain, you obviously haven’t seen The Wire. Or Spike Lee’s When the Levees Broke, which premiered on HBO.

In related news, The Wire creator David Simon’s upcoming HBO show Treme will focus on the music scene in post-Katrina New Orleans. Expect something amazing that will speak on what was the worst “natural” disaster to hit this country.

And, yes, this was mostly just an excuse to make you watch the new trailer for Treme embedded below. (via Video Gum) (UPDATE: That trailer is no longer available … replacement video below. Don’t worry, it’s just as good. Probably even better.)

You can also view the other six “ideas for the next 10 years” over at Time.com. Let us know of any other major risk management-related concepts that stand out to you.

“Sun-ny day, chas-ing the # clouds a-way…”

Forty years ago today, the first episode of Sesame Street hit the airwaves, revolutionizing the ways in which television could be used as an educational tool, particularly for young children. I was born in 1970, so I have never known a world without this show. It was always on in my house as my brothers and I grew up, and for anybody of my generation, all I have to do is mention any show character or sing a few bars of one of its trademark songs (the pinball counting song remains a fave) and I get instant recognition. It is one of those rare cultural phenomena that has educated countless children, remained relevant over the years and seems to have many more seasons ahead of it. As a fan and as a parent of kids who also grew up on Sesame Street, I’m pretty happy to see the show hit such a milestone.

The cast of Sesame Street for its 40th anniversary season. Photo Credit: Richard Termine

The cast of Sesame Street for its 40th anniversary season. Photo Credit: Richard Termine

It hasn’t always been sure success for Sesame Street, however. In fact, its very conception, initial execution and ongoing criticism has been, in many ways, an ongoing experiment in intelligent risk-taking. For starters, the show was created at a time when people didn’t know if TV could even be used to educate, and it took some generous grants to research the premise, as well as some pretty forward-thinking corporate sponsorship to help get the entire project off the ground. During the show’s development, segements with the Muppets fared will with kids, but the live-action “street” segments did not, so the show’s creators decided to go against the advice of their experts and create street segments where live actors and Muppet characters interacted. A bold move for a show without any kind of precedent, really, but one that paid off. The show captured the imagination and the attention of its audience while also paving new ground in terms of television entertainment. True innovation at work.

But there have been other pitfalls, as well. In 1970, the show’s racially integrated cast got it banned from the airwaves (briefly) in Mississippi, its portrayal of female characters got it bad marks from the National Organization for Women, and its lack of Hispanic characters got it criticism from Latino groups. Critics such as journalist Kay Hymowitz have also rapped the show for being little more than a delivery mechanism for merchandising, and for putting on a lot of flashy programming with little educational content to back it up. The show has even gotten political flak through the decades, mainly because it receives government funding and conservatives knock the show for having a liberal bias. A recent spot where Oscar the Grouch, reporter for GNN, gets a call regarding POX News could not have helped.

Perhaps the show’s worst challenge has been obsolescence, and the greatest risk it took was reformatting to maintain its relevancy. Facing declining ratings in recent years, the show realized that it had kicked off a children’s programing revolution that changed how kids themselves watched TV. With so many shows that older kids could watch, and realizing that kids were watching the show from an early age, Sesame Street aimed its content at young pre-schoolers, a move roundly criticized by Gen-X parents who felt the show was being dumbed down. Things are still tougher for the show than before, as it is producing fewer new shows each year and currently ranks only as the 15th most popular children’s show in the United States.

But Sesame Street is still having the last laugh, longer-running by far than any other children’s programming, and with more Emmy awards (118) to its credit than any other show, period. At present, it is estimated that around 77 million Americans have watched the show, and even Oscar the Grouch is on permanent display in the Smithsonian Museum of American History. All this for a show that began so humbly four decades ago on the unproven notion that kids could actually get something worthwhile from TV, and that make-believe friends made out of colorful fur could be one’s ambassador to a world of reading, writing and arithmetic. Who says risks don’t pay off?