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Widening Wealth Gap Is Biggest Global Risk, World Economic Forum Predicts

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Wealth Disparity

According to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks 2014 report, the chronic gap between the incomes of the richest and poorest citizens is the risk most likely to cause serious global damage in the next decade. Looking forward, the 700 experts queried emphasized that the next generation will only feel this disparity more acutely if current conditions continue. Those presently coming of age face “twin challenges” of reduced employment opportunity and rising education costs, prompting the World Economic Forum to consider the impact on political and social stability as well as economic development.

“Many young people today face an uphill battle,” explained David Cole, group chief risk officer of Swiss Re. “As a result of the financial crisis and globalization, the younger generation in the mature markets struggle with ever fewer job opportunities and the need to support an aging population. While in the emerging markets there are more jobs to be had, the workforce does not yet possess the broad based skill-sets necessary to satisfy demand. It’s vital we sit down with young people now and begin planning solutions aimed at creating fit-for-purpose educational systems, functional job-markets, efficient skills exchanges and the sustainable future we all depend on.”

After a widening global wealth gap, experts predicted that extreme weather events will be the global risk next most likely to cause systemic shock on a global scale. They identified fiscal crises as the global risk with the potential to have the biggest impact over the next 10 years.

The top five most likely and most potentially impactful global risks are:

Most Likely Risks

1. Income disparity (societal risk)

2. Extreme weather events (environmental risk)

3. Unemployment and underemployment (economic risk)

4. Climate change (environmental risk)

5. Cyberattacks (technological risk)

 

Most Potentially Impactful Risks

1. Fiscal crises (economic risk)

2. Climate change (environmental risk)

3. Water crises (environmental risk)

4. Unemployment and underemployment (economic risk)

5. Critical information infrastructure breakdown(technological risk)

More Catastrophe Bonds Issued in First Half of 2012 Than Any Year Since 2007

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In the first half of 2012, there have been about $3.6 billion of catastrophe bonds issued — the most since the record-breaking volume issued in the first half of 2007, according to reinsurer Swiss Re. The first half of 2011, by contrast, only saw half as much action, with just $1.8 billion issued in cat bonds. For perspective, 2012 beat that number in just the second quarter, which had .

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1 billion in volume, the second-highest Q2 total on record for an insurance-linked securities (ILS) market that Swiss Re believes will only continue to grow.

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“We remain optimistic regarding new issuance for 2012,” writes Swiss Re in its insurance-linked securities market update. “It remains clear that sponsors view the ILS market as an important part of their risk management programs, and as a source of multi-year collateralized reinsurance protection. The broad investor base sees value in a diversifying and non-correlated asset class. Due to these factors, the ILS market is likely to continue to grow in the future.”

Hurricane risk has overwhelmingly been the most common peril (used as the trigger in 23 of the 28 tranches issued so far this year), and Swiss Re believes that this year’s uptick in interest from investors is due to their willingness to use cat bonds to diversify their portfolios due to the fact that price levels are “increasingly competitive with traditional reinsurance.”

Initial Estimates of Claims from Japan Quake

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Though it is far too early to pin down an exact number for the amount of money the Japan quake will cost insurers, initial estimates have started to surface for some of the hardest hit insurers and reinsurers.

Swiss Re, the world’s second-biggest reinsurer, has estimated it will face claims of about $1.2 billion from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

The figure is low because Japan’s government insures residential properties covered by non-life companies against earthquake and tsunami damage and this protection is not reinsured internationally, the Zurich-based company said in an e-mailed statement today. The preliminary claims figure is net of retrocession and before tax, Swiss Re said.

Eqecat, a catastrophe modeling firm, has stated that insurers and reinsurers will likely have losses of $12 billion to $25 billion. However, AIR Wolrdwide has estimated losses of up to $35 billion from the quake alone.

AIG has recently reported that it will record $1 billion in claims for the first quarter, most of which can be attributed to the Japan earthquake and tsunami.

Zurich-based ACE Ltd., a major player in the insurance and reinsurance market, said its initial loss estimates are $200 million to $250 million.

Though Lloyd’s of London has not officially released an estimate, an anonymous market source has said “$3 billion in losses for the Lloyd’s market as a whole sounds plausible.”

QBE Insurance Group Ltd. of Australia has said it estimates $125 million in claims from the quake and tsunami.

Below is a video of the always-entertaining Joe Plumeri speaking on the topic of Japan’s insured losses.

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