It was only fitting that the organizers of RIMS on the Hill, the annual legislative conference hosted by the Risk & Insurance Management Society (RIMS), invite an individual with decades of experience in politics and a respected voice when it comes to happenings on the Hill to speak at the conference. Stu Rothenberg is the editor and publisher of The Rothenberg Political Report, a non-partisan political newsletter that has become known for its rare ability to report all the political news in the nation with unbiased clarity and nonpartisan precision.
What did Rothenberg want to talk about? The impending presidential election, of course. “I continue to think the race is going to be a close one,” he said. “With past elections, if you had a “D” behind your name and barely a pulse, you had a good chance of winning. Most elections are either based on continuity, where the majority want to keep things going as they are, or based on change. We had three change elections in a row. Is this a change or a continuity election now?
How do we know? Rothenberg says it’s simple — just look at the polls (he favors the Democracy Corps and NBC/Wall Street Journal polls). For some time now, these polls have shown that a majority of Americans are unsatisfied with the current state of the nation. This in itself would presumably signal an upcoming change election. That’s understandable, but Rothenberg adds one caveat: The numbers from October of last year show an even more dissatisfied nation, meaning feelings, though still more on the dismal side, are leaning more towards the positive.
The most important players in any election are swing voters, according to Rothenberg. “Swing voters are who make the difference,” he said. “They attitudanlly and behaviorally mimicked Democrats in the 2006 election. In 2010, they behaved like Republicans. How will they vote in 2012? Most likely they will vote on how they feel the president is doing right now; they will vote on whether or not they feel the country is headed in the right direction right now.”
As for what Rothenberg thinks will happen in the upcoming election, he predicts “we’ll see the president’s approval rating slide and people leaning more towards change.” We’ll have to wait and see if he’s right.
