Tag Archives: Satellite risk

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Galaxy Quest: Assessing Space Commercialization

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If a bunch of kids can launch a satellite into space, why can’t you?

As reported by the Washington Post, seventh-graders at St. Thomas More Cathedral School in Arlington, Texas are the first grade school students to send a satellite into orbit. The CubeSat – built by the children – was launched into space and will begin beaming photos from 200 miles above the Earth’s surface to an antenna on the school’s library.

This learning experience is remarkable for the kids, but what does it mean for the future of commercial industries in space? While commercialization of space tourism and satellite technology is already happening, is this emerging risk something that industries can afford to overlook?

The Space Foundation’s 2015 “The Space Report” found that commercial activities in space continue to increase and now make up 76% of the global space economy. The report adds that revenue from commercial space products and services was dominated by direct-to-home television services, making up more than three-quarters of the global commercial space products and services market.

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Space budgets

Allianz published an article that outlines some of the challenges of space insurance and space risks, from the pre-launch phases to in orbit operations and satellite insurance.

“Losing a spacecraft is by far not the only risk,” the article points out. “Potential interruptions of a satellite’s service in our globalized work are just as problematic for spacecraft users, individual transponders users such as TV channels and Internet providers, but also for banks, car manufacturers and large industries that use telecommunications networks.”

According to the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA / AST) Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2016, “The size of the global space industry, which combines satellite services and ground equipment, government space budgets, and global navigation satellite services (GNSS) equipment, is estimated to be about $324 billion. At $95 billion in revenues, or about 29%, satellite television represents the largest segment of activity.”

The report highlights the progress China has made with its space program, noting the number of orbital launches conducted by the country has steadily increased each year since 2010, with a peak of 19 launches in 2012. The findings highlight China’s commitment to commercial space applications, specifically stating that the data “points to a robust future in Chinese spaceflight.”

For many industries, the idea of planning for the risks involved in a space expansion might seem too far off to devote resources. But, with commercial airliners, telecommunications companies, international markets like China and even a bunch of seventh-graders already investing in opportunities in space, it might be time to reconsider the possibilities and the risks.

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The Next Frontier of Risk: Space Debris

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You may remember back in February 2009 when the Iridium 33 and Russia’s Cosmos 2251 satellites collided in orbit somewhere above Siberia. The crash of the two objects resulted in more than 600 pieces of debris larger than a tennis ball being strewn about in space, adding to what scientists and researchers call space debris or space junk.

The problem with the collision of satellites (many of which are non-working and have been abandoned in space to drift freely for eternity) is that it creates added debris in an already cluttered lower earth orbit, creating a hazard to operational satellites. The debris can also pose a threat to space stations — in March of last year, the crew of the international space station was forced to take cover in its escape capsule after learning that a piece of debris moving at 20,000 mph was heading towards them. Though the object missed the space station, it won’t be the last close call.

We covered space risk in our May 2009 issue, stating that scientists are concerned about the “dangerous and possibly irreversible cycle of wreckage.” The worst case scenario for the problem of space debris is known as the Kessler Syndrome (named after NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler), a scenario in which the volume of space debris in lower earth orbit is so high that the risk of further collisions increases to the point where launches become nearly impossible.

A space so cluttered with junk that the U.S. military (or any military for that matter), NASA or any weather, cable or GPS satellites cannot launch? Scary indeed.

The latest issue of the Economist explores the ongoing problem of space pollution, stating that:

At orbital velocity, some eight kilometers a second, even an object a centimeter across could knock a satellite out. According to the European Space Agency, the number of collision alters has doubled in the past decade.

But there are possible solutions to clearing the massive amount of space junk out there. The following are a few ideas put forth in the aforementioned article:

  1. Use ground-based lasers to change the orbits of pieces by vaporizing their surfaces. Apparently, the American armed forces claim one laser facility could complete the job in a matter of three years.
  2. Alliant Techsystems has proposed building special satellites enclosed in multiple spheres of strong, lightweight material. Debris that came into contact with the satellite would lose momentum and velocity with each collision. “As a bonus, many object large enough to cause damage would be shattered by the collision into fragments too small to cause serious harm.”
  3. Robots. That’s right — robots. Many space agencies are considering the option of sending robots into space to dock with dead satellites and fire rockets to either boost them into an uninhabited orbit or deorbit them completely.

Whatever these agencies decide, something should be done quickly to remedy the situation. For every day that passes, more space junk accumulates. Let us not come to realize the dreaded Kessler Syndrome.

From the August 21st - 27th, 2010 issue of the Economist.

From the August 21st - 27th, 2010 issue of the Economist.

Satellite Tracking Intensifies

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Back in May, I wrote a piece for the magazine about the risk of satellite collisions in space. The article told of how satellite collisions create a massive amount of debris, which creates an even greater opportunity for more collision and therefore, higher rates of insurance. Much attention was brought to this topic after the Feb. 10 collision of a defunct Russian satellite and a commercial U.S. satellite.

Since this event, the U.S. Air Force has increased its ability to predict possible collisions in space. As a recent Washington Post article stated:

Gen. Kevin Chilton, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, called the collision the “seminal event” in the satellite industry during the past year and said it destroyed any sense that space was so vast that collisions were highly improbable. He said military officials had wanted to do more thorough analysis of possible collisions in space but had lacked the resources.

Apparently, the resources are now available. The U.S. military is currently tracking 800 satellites on a daily basis and expects to add 500 more by year’s end. This is good news, however there is an estimated 20,000 satellites, spent rocket stages and other debris floating through space at high rates of speed, most of which are not tracked.

The U.S. Air Force has come a long way since the Feb. 10 collision, but much more is needed to guarantee a safe space.

The following is an amazing video from the History Channel showing the Earth’s overly polluted orbit, from the first rocket launched to now, and the satellite tracking process. It even includes actual footage of space debris. I could watch this over and over if it was possible to do so here at work.

Before the collision, he told a space conference in Omaha, the U.S. military was tracking fewer than 100 satellites a day. “It’s amazing what one collision will do to the resource spigot,” he said.Gen. Kevin Chilton, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, called the collision the “seminal event” in the satellite industry during the past year and said it destroyed any sense that space was so vast that collisions were highly improbable. He said military officials had wanted to do more thorough analysis of possible collisions in space but had lacked the resources.
Before the collision, he told a space conference in Omaha, the U.S. military was tracking fewer than 100 satellites a day. “It’s amazing what one collision will do to the resource spigot,” he said.Gen. Kevin Chilton, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, called the collision the “seminal event” in the satellite industry during the past year and said it destroyed any sense that space was so vast that collisions were highly improbable. He said military officials had wanted to do more thorough analysis of possible collisions in space but had lacked the resources.
Before the collision, he told a space conference in Omaha, the U.S. military was tracking fewer than 100 satellites a day. “It’s amazing what one collision will do to the resource spigot,” he said.