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What the 2015 State of the Union Means for Risk Managers

state of the union 2015

Last night, President Obama delivered the annual State of the Union. Unsurprisingly, the speech covered a variety of topics ranging from foreign affairs to civil rights to climate change. While these issues may ultimately have little impact on the insurance industry or risk management, there were two topics raised that could be of significant interest.

The first relates to tax reform:

“As Americans, we don’t mind paying our fair share of taxes, as long as everybody else does, too. But for far too long, lobbyists have rigged the tax code with loopholes that let some corporations pay nothing while others pay full freight. They’ve riddled it with giveaways the superrich don’t need, denying a break to middle class families who do,” Obama said.

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For the past few years, the Obama administration’s annual budget proposal has included a measure that would deny a tax deduction for certain reinsurance premiums paid to foreign-based affiliates by domestic insurers. While the administration and some members of Congress deem this deduction a “loophole,” it is actually a commonly used and effective risk management tool.

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Doing away with this particular “loophole” would force the industry as a whole to reduce the size and scope of its U.S. offerings. A previous economic impact study found that this proposal would reduce the net supply of reinsurance in the United States by 20%, thus increasing prices by to billion annually for the same coverage.

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If Congress does take up comprehensive tax reform, this is certainly an initiative that many in the industry will need to keep an eye on.

The other issue is cybersecurity:

“And tonight, I urge this Congress to finally pass the legislation we need to better meet the evolving threat of cyberattacks, combat identity theft, and protect our children’s information. If we don’t act, we’ll leave our nation and our economy vulnerable. If we do, we can continue to protect the technologies that have unleashed untold opportunities for people around the globe,” the president said.

Cybersecurity and the management of cyberrisks is certainly one of the hottest topics in the industry. While it remains unclear what proposed legislation will look like, we will almost certainly see at least one major piece of cybersecurity legislation introduced in the next few months. Previous efforts have focused on information-sharing. With the number of attacks and damage inflicted only increasing, however, it is quite possible that new legislation may be even broader in scope.

It is also important to note that simply including something in a State of the Union address does not always translate into real action. It is quite possible that tax reform will get tabled again as various factions are unable to agree. It’s also possible that Congress will be unable to come up with a cybersecurity bill that achieves many of its goals without undermining the privacy or personal security of individuals. It is, however, an overview of the administration’s priorities for the coming year, and that does still carry some weight.

One Reason the SEC Can’t Regulate Wall Street

Regulators, particularly those within the SEC, took a lot of criticism for their inability to prevent the financial crisis in 2008. And rightly so. The complex CDOs and credit default swaps were all poorly regulated and this whole cottage industry that arose to, in essence, gamble on the real estate industry brought the global economy to the brink.

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So feel free to continue piling on the regulators.
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I’m sure I will.

But sometimes you see something that adds a little more perspective.

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And today that comes from Forbes, which published the well-titled piece “10 Wall Street Expenses That Make The SEC’s Budget Look Pathetic” in response to the ongoing Washington debate over the size of SEC’s budget. (President Obama wants to raise it from the current $1.1 billion to $1.4 billion while House Republicans want to chop $25 million off the current total, according to Forbes.)

It isn’t apples-to-apples, but their list makes you wonder how always-behind-the-times-anyway bureaucrats could ever hope to compete with the savvy titans of the Street. The most glaring comes in looking at the $4 billion JPMorgan maintains for its litigation reserves alone. As Forbes writer Halah Touryalai puts it, “Yes — that means the money JPM is saving so it can fight or settle lawsuits is 4x the size of what the SEC has to regulate the entire securities industry.”

Kind of like taking a spork to a gun fight.

Who Will Replace Larry Summers on Obama’s Economic Team?

As you may have heard, chief White House economic advisor Lawrence Summers has announced that he will be resigning at the end of 2010.

It is presumably accidental that the papers on the last day of summer report that Larry Summers is leaving the administration. There is an exodus of economic officials from the Obama team, and they are mostly going out with hostile commentary. The economy is not booming, and the president’s poll numbers are poor.

That must be the economic team’s fault.

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One commentary I read this morning says President Obama will be the Democratic Herbert Hoover.

Now that Summers is the third major member of the team to bolt (following Budget Director Peter Orszag and adviser Christina Romer and leaving Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner as the only top-level economic adviser remaining from Obama’s original cast), everyone is asking the same question: Who will Obama anoint as Summers’ successor? (The secondary question is “how did he do?

Here’s one guy’s answer.)

This morning, I was watching long-time White House reporter Chuck Todd’s rather new and rather good show The Daily Rundown and there was talk about the business community’s displeasure with President Obama’s policies. Meet the Press host David Gregory appeared in a segment and shared an anecdote from a recent gathering of CEOs that he attended during which one of the high-power execs told him “the White House has lost everybody in the room.” Gregory followed that up by noting that Obama needs to find a way to turn that around when he is “relying upon the private sector to turn things around.”

So … who is the best man for the job?

According to this list of candidates to become the next director of the White House National Economic Council, it very well might be a woman. Here are Reuters’ top ten candidates, four of which are women and five of which are more firmly rooted in the business world than the economics community. (The article didn’t mention whether the order they are listed in held any significance.)

  • Laura Tyson, a member of the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board and professor at the University of California, Berkeley
  • Diana Farrell, a deputy to Larry Summers on the National Economic Council
  • Jason Furman, a deputy to Larry Summers on the National Economic Council
  • Ann Fudge, former senior executive at General Mills and Kraft
  • Gary Gensler, Chairman of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission
  • Gene Sperling, Counselor to Treasury Secretary Time Geithner  and former Director of the National Economic Council (1996-2000)
  • Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics
  • Jeffrey Immelt, Chairman and CEO of General Electric
  • Richard Parsons, Chairman of Citigroup
  • Anne Mulcahy, former Xerox chief executive

Who do you think should take over?

Somali Pirates: Attacks Down but Reach Spreads

We’ve covered the pirate crisis in the Gulf of Aden numerous times — once in the February 2009 issue of Risk Management and twice more on this blog (The Rising Price of Piracy Insurance and Security at Sea).

Though the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) states that sea attacks worldwide fell by more than a third in the first quarter of this year, the attacks continue. Pirates are now increasing their area of surveilance and capture (it now includes the massive Indian Ocean) and though U.S. and foreign warships have been canvassing the area, the pirates have not backed down. In fact, their army and area of operation has seemed to grow.

This week alone, three Thai fishing vessels were seized in hijackings 1,200 miles east of Somalia in the Indian Ocean — the farthest from the Somali coast pirates have ever attacked, according to the EU Naval Force. A total off 77 crew were taken hostage.

And just yesterday, in the fourth attack in less than a week, pirates seized a bulk carrier — the Liberian-owned Voc Daisy — in the Gulf of Aden. The ship was heading from the UAE towards to the Suez Canal when it, along with its crew of 21, were taken hostage.

After a successful pirate hijacking, the shipping company that owns the vessel will, in most cases, immediately issue a ransom for the return of the ship and crew. But that may become a bit tougher for American ships should they fall victim to a pirate attack.

The shipping industry has long seen ransom payments to retrieve hijacked vessels, cargos and crews as a cost of doing business. But after Obama last week issued an executive order on Somalia, shipping officials say it’s no longer clear whether companies with U.S. interests can legally pay ransoms. The industry is worried because ransoms have been the only way to quickly and safely free hostages.

The order states it is illegal for anyone to supply financing to any Somalis involved in military activities. Contrary to that, the U.S. Treasury Department said it is not interested in prosecuting anyone trying to free hostages. This understandably puts shipping companies in a tough place.

“Taking away our ability to secure the safe release of our crew members and vessels could put us as an employer and ship owner in a very difficult position,” Moller said. “Thankfully we have not had to test such a scenario under these restrictions and it’s difficult for us to comment further on the consequences of the order without speculating.”

The IMB states that currently, pirates hold 14 vessels and 305 hostages.

Picture 2

The IMB live piracy map illustrates where pirate attacks have occurred so far this year.