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Snow Insurance, Anyone?

Most people who know me know that I despise talking about the weather.

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I know it’s all part of the small-talking social game we all play but I have to think that we could find something better to talk about than statements of the obvious. Yeah it’s hot/cold/raining/snowing. That’s life. Move on.

That being said, I’m writing this from my house because I have bought into the weather reports that seem to indicate that the New York area will soon be hit with the most blizzardiest blizzard we ever did see. So far I’m unimpressed.

Of course, if I lived a bit further south in the D.C. area, I might have a different perspective. Evidently those folks have seen 14 inches of snow or something like that and it’s obviously a bit of a hassle as these Gawker photos from D.C.-area supermarkets last week can attest. Even mail delivery has been suspended. “Neither snow, nor rain, nor heat, nor gloom of night stays these courageous couriers from the swift completion of their appointed rounds” indeed. Not that I blame them, mind you. You don’t see me out there.

But what I did find interesting is this column from the Washington Post’s Steven Pearlstein. From the unique perspective of someone who evidently has gotten a little tired of being snowed in, he talks about how ineffective snow cleanup is indicative of the disconnect between what we want from our government and what we are willing to pay for.

You’re sitting at home for the third straight day, unable to get to work because of the snow. Your kids are on the fourth day of a snow vacation that is likely to last through the end of the week. How much would you have been willing to pay to guarantee that the streets and sidewalks were clear and things could have run pretty much as normal? $10? $25? $50?

Or imagine that you own a business with 50 employees that is closed for three days because of the snow, but you still have to pay ,000 in salaries for work they didn’t do. What would you have been willing to pay to have things running normally this week?

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$1,000? $2,500? $5,000?

Now, says Pearlstein, what if the government could offer you a little “snow insurance,” a sort of guarantee that snow would cause little to no disruption to your everyday life?

To pay for the extra manpower and equipment, the politicians proposed raising taxes and fees by an average of $25 per household each year, and $2,500 for the average business.

Although the politicians’ offer would be the effective equivalent of “snow insurance,” I can assure you that the reaction to it would be quite different. Republicans would immediate call it “the biggest tax increase in history” and declare unequivocally that it would send the economy into a tailspin while radically expanding the government. Chambers of commerce would issue news releases warning that the tax would particularly hurt small-business owners, who as we all know create every new job and would now be forced to cut their payrolls or close their doors. Virginia’s House of Delegates would move immediately to kill the proposal, thereby dooming consideration by all the other jurisdictions.

As Pearlstein goes on to say, with a small investment we could save a significant amount on lost productivity costs. But as soon as you say the word “tax” or present someone with a bill, they immediately lose sight of the big picture. I’m sure any risk manager who has had to appeal to his or her CEO for more money to fund a new ERM initiative or a new safety program knows exactly what that feels like. It’s the same idea that seems to be at the center of many of the political debates in this country from health care to terrorism protection. We want all the benefits without any of the costs.

Personally, I don’t mind snow days. They always make you feel like a kid again (that is until the back pain from shoveling reminds you that you aren’t that young anymore). I don’t think “insurance” for something that will be gone in a week is all that appealing.

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But I’d like to think that when it comes to something more important, like providing for, say, fire departments, garbage collection or even health care for my family, I would have no problem opening my wallet to pay my fair share.

Did the Bailouts Create More Risk?

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Some feel the government’s response to the financial crisis may hurt the U.S. economy in the long run. At least that’s what an independent watchdog at the Treasury Department warned.

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The problem is that the issues that spawned the financial crisis have not been addressed — it has been more than 15 months since the beginning of the downward spiral, and though promises of reform have been made, there has been nothing instituted that will help prevent another crisis from happening in the future. Neil Barofsky, the special inspector general for the troubled asset relief program (TARP) said:

“Even if TARP saved our financial system from driving off a cliff back in 2008, absent meaningful reform, we are still driving on the same winding mountain road, but this time in a faster car.”

Since the $700 billion bailout by Congress, those financial institutions in the spotlight have grown even larger and have failed to scale back enormous executive pay. Some, including Barofsky, feel that because banks were bailed out in the past, they may take on even more risk, knowing the government will once again come to their rescue.

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Barofsky also had some words concerning the government’s role in propping up the housing market:

“The government has stepped in where the private players have gone away. If we take government resources and replace that market without addressing the serious (underlying) concerns, there really is a risk of” artificially pushing up home prices in the coming years. The report warned that these supports mean the government “has done more than simply support the mortgage market, in many ways it has become the mortgage market, with the taxpayer shouldering the risk that had once been borne by the private investor.

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Many housing experts are worried that once the cash infusion from the government runs out, the housing market will taken an even harder hit than it already has. And though the financial aid the Obama administration has offered has helped the housing and financial markets tremendously, a correction of underlying problems is seriously needed, though it doesn’t look as though reform will take place any time soon.

Give AIG a Break

Okay, I said it: perhaps we’re being too harsh on AIG.

Sure, the company has some serious problems, and its liquidity crisis of 2008 will remain one of the worst business disasters of all time. But since then, AIG has somehow morphed from a deeply troubled company into an avatar of all things wrong with the corporate world. And while I won’t suggest we forget (or even forgive) AIG of the policies and actions that nearly tanked the world economy, we must resist the urge to make this company into things that it is not.

Villainization, while it may make us feel good, usually distracts us from the complexities of a situation we must somehow address. It’s easy to say that any given problem came about because somebody — that guy! over there! — was a greedy jerk. It’s far more difficult to see problems in a wider context, to understand how those problems came about, to address those problems on their own terms, and to take meaningful action to try to prevent those problems from arising again. But when we look at the magnitude of the AIG situation, we can take no other course of action. To do otherwise invites disaster to repeat itself. And really, who in their right mind would want to see a stock implosion like this one again in their lifetime?

This brings me to an editorial yesterday called “Kill AIG Now” by Eli Lehrer of the Heartland Institute, over on the Frum Forum. The Frum Forum is a right-leaning political site, and the Heartland Institute is a think tank that describes itself as a think tank for free market solutions to public policy problems, but a cursory look around the site shows that its views on environmentalism, healthcare and other issues aligns it with the remnants of the GOP trying to stake a claim in Obama’s world. On the whole, Lehrer writes some pretty interesting op-eds, but I don’t always agree with his interpretation of the facts, and that is certainly true here.

Before I go one word further, however, a moment of transparency is needed. AIG has been a generous advertiser on this blog’s parent media outlet, Risk Management magazine, and of Risk Management‘s parent, the Risk and Insurance Management Society, a trade association for risk managers — people who often buy very large amounts of insurance from companies such as AIG, and who are among the first to be hurt whenever a major insurer drops to the ground. The P/C wing of AIG, which has been re-branded as Chartis, is also a sponsor and an advertiser.

This next part is sure to draw a few hoots from our more cynical readers, but I’ll say it anyway: I’m not writing this article because we have a relationship with AIG and Chartis. I’m writing it because as I read “Kill AIG Now,” it seemed like another example of using commonly held half-truths about AIG — a firm nobody is in a rush to defend -— to promote agendas that don’t really reflect the reality of the situation.

This may sound like a joke coming from a journalist in this day and age, but I think that the truth is more important than somebody’s agenda. And to that end, I’d like to point out some problems I have with Lehrer’s editorial, because if we succumb to the temptation to cherry pick facts about AIG to support our arguments for other things, then we distort what AIG was, is and will be. And in so doing, we lose our grip on how AIG self-destructed, and we lose sight of how we can keep such a thing from happening again. So it is important to be fair when we talk about AIG. It is more than important. It is critical. And so we begin.

I first began raising my eyebrows over Lehrer’s comments on AIG’s Byzantine structure. There is no denying it, the company is a massive patchwork of subsidiaries that seems like a massive corporate Gordian knot. Given the company’s financial troubles, one might conclude that perhaps its labyrinthine inner workings played a part in that. And indeed, Lehrer makes such a suggestion, but it raises a question far bigger than the one it answers.

Although a number of other companies sold a product line-up similar to it, Greenberg’s AIG developed a uniquely confusing structure largely as a result of its acquisitive ways. When it collapsed in the fall of 2008 due to some terrible bets it made on credit default swaps, AIG consisted of over 1,500 legal entities, 71 America-based operating subsidiaries, and perhaps 50 brands. (State Farm, the insurer that does the most business in the U.S., has 12 U.S.-based operating subsidiaries and one brand.)

Although odd looking on paper, this structure gave AIG a strong competitive advantage and promotes economic instability now. It “worked” for two reasons.

First, the company was—and still is—largely “regulator proof” and able to engage in risky, high-return investments that state regulations mandating conservative financial strategies closed to most of its competitors. Like all other insurers, AIG is regulated separately by each jurisdiction where it operated and small state-level regulatory operations couldn’t always “follow the money” in a behemoth like AIG. The credit default swap trades that famously brought down the company were only one example of its exotic, high-flying investment strategy: the company also backed “rocket scientist” quantitative hedge funds and built ski resorts.

I won’t argue that AIG might be overly complex, structure-wise.

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However, to suggest that AIG kept such a structure because it allowed it more ability to sidestep state insurance regulators overlooks a larger issue: the structure of U.S. insurance regulation itself.

Not surprisingly, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners opposes the formation of a federal insurance czar, or even the Optional Federal Charter RIMS endorses because — and this is just my opinion here — it would strip them of the power they have enjoyed for so long. Never mind that the 50-regime system we have is loathed by insurers because it creates extra compliance costs and administrative headaches, to have a federal system to streamline things would somehow fail to serve the industry and the consumer, by the NAIC’s reckoning.

One thing is for sure, though, a simplified regulatory landscape indeed would make it much more difficult for another AIG to take advantage of loopholes. But frankly, to blame AIG for working an obviously broken system is a bit like blaming a dog for eating your lunch when you’ve laid it on the floor. First things first: overhaul insurance regulation. Somehow, given the political leanings of Heartland and Frum, i doubt there will be much call for that, however. We’ll see.

Point the second: AIG’s claims history. Hoo boy.

Second, many AIG subsidiaries—particularly those in highly priced competitive businesses—took a very hardnosed attitude towards paying policyholder claims. Although some of the horror stories about the company probably stemmed from resentment of financial success — then New York State Attorney General Elliot Spitzer launched a sometimes demagogic crusade against it — the overall strategy appeared to be the mostly legal although hardly consumer-friendly game plan of always interpreting contract language in ways that maximized corporate profits.

I have covered insurance journalism for about 15 years now, and if I have learned just one thing, it is this: every single insurance company out there either takes a “very hardnosed attitude toward paying policyholder claims” or they are chastising themselves for failing to do so. AIG may have played hardball, but to demonize them for it is ridiculous, given how much this is merely standard industry behavior. As the discipline of underwriting eroded across the board (especially during the 1990s) and as companies no longer could rely on their investment income to keep them going, they routinely turn to claims reduction as the last line of defense.

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AIG is no different in this.

And if Lehrer has a bunch of consumer testimonials to say that AIG behaved in a bastardly fashion, then guess what? Ask any resident of the Gulf Coast what they think of their insurance company, and you’ll probably get an earful of language that cannot be repeated in front of polite company.

I also like how Lehrer insinuates that AIG was perhaps acting illegally even though it could not be proven as such. This, my friends, is yellow journalism, pure and simple. If AIG’s claims patterns were in fact illegal, then I cannot believe in a legal environment as rapacious as the United States that such rascalism would not have been dragged out into the light and flogged in public. For all of his vigorous prosecution, not even Eliot Spitzer went after AIG for claims, he went after them for dodgy accounting.

Point the third: pricing.

But, there’s no hard evidence that AIG has systematically broken the law through its pricing. (Because insurance consists of a promise to pay at a future time, it’s illegal to sell an insurance policy at a price that doesn’t provide reasonable assurance that the company selling it will be able to pay claims.) Investigations from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and the Government Accountability Office both found that AIG is not using taxpayer bailout funds to under-price competitors in an illegal fashion. On the other hand, a late November analyst report from Sanford Bernstein sent AIG’s stock tumbling with the suggestion that several parts of the company lacked the resources to pay likely claims. Whatever the case one thing is clear: AIG—buoyed by government support—has continued to compete vigorously on price because the company was built to do so.

First off, again with the insinuation of wrongdoing. If AIG has practiced illegal pricing, then either acuse them of it or don’t. But reading Lehrer, I get the feeling that he’s taking a cheap shot at a firm widely perceived to be up to no good by a public (and a government) that really has no idea how any insurance company works, let alone one as large and as complex as AIG.

But, I digress.

The real point here is that AIG practices scorched earth pricing, ostensibly to force its competition to price at uneconomic levels, forcing them to endure pains that AIG can absorb much more easily. If this is the case, then we certainly aren’t hearing of it at the consumer level, as there has not been a single statewide push for rate rollbacks that made note of how artificially low rates were in the first place.

Plus, I find it strange for Lehrer to ping away on AIG’s pricing when, in other editorials, he excoriates states for not letting the market set its own prices for hurricane coverage. If we want a free market, then we can’t have it halfway, but that is just what seems to be proposed here. Free markets to give the government a pass on covering coastal risk, but not a free enough one to let a company like AIG throw its weight around like any other corporate apex predator might. What gives?

Lehrer even goes so far as to suggest that by competing on price, as it has and as it continues to do, AIG is depressing the entire P/C market, which is in turn hurting the larger economy. This is wildly oversimplistic and ignores the larger dynamics of the P/C pricing cycle. (For more on that, see Morgan O’Rourke’s market overview feature in our upcoming January/February issue if Risk Management)

All of this is diversionary, though. The ultimate point to be made here, is the one I disagree with the least, which brings us to point the fourth: what to do next?

If it wants to solve the problems that AIG poses, the government should put the company out of its misery. Even if the company remains in existence forever, its total debts will never be paid back because they are based on valuations of the company that assumed its strategy would result in long-term growth that never came. The money AIG lost is gone.

I am sure Lehrer isn’t the first to suggest that AIG be dissolved, nor will he be the last. And from a standpoint of getting government money back, perhaps dissolving AIG is indeed the only viable option.

But I wonder . . . is getting the money back really part of the strategy here? I think not.

AIG was saved because its complete downfall was seen as something that would so devastate world financial markets that the federal government had no choice but to step in, throw a king’s ransom (literally) at it and accept the lesser of two evils.

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When you get right down to it, that’s what national governments are, truly the insurers of last resort.

The big difference now is that the United States actually owns an insurance company because of it. I don’t know what the Obama administration has in mind ultimately, but I do know that saving AIG was a good idea. You know what would be an even better one, though? Fixing our fractured regulatory system so that another AIG can’t happen.

Suggesting that the government is overstaying its welcome into private enterprise after buying up AIG at a time of crisis is short-sighted, plays to the already tired free market mantra that underpins general opposition to the Obama administration and deflects from the real issue of regulatory reform. AIG’s problems stemmed from a variety of sources — an out-of-whack financial services unit, a market environment that rewarded greed over prudence and a leadership that either looked the other way or truly did not know what was happening in its own shop. But these are the ills not just of AIG, but of the entire corporate environment of the last ten years.

If we want to focus on a meaningful solution here, we need to look to regulation, and how badly the U.S. insurance market needs it, and needs it now.

Thoughts on CEI’s Stance on Catastrophe Funding

In the most recent issue of Business Insurance, Competitive Enterprise Institute senior fellow Eli Lehrer offers his thoughts on why exactly a federal natural catastrophe backstop would be a very, very bad idea. The CEI has been carpet bombing trade and mainstream media outlets in a nonstop campaign to tell anybody who will listen that the only thing worse than a hurricane wiping out coastal property is for the federal government to pick up the tab for it.

While Lehrer’s BI interview is well-reasoned and even worded, not all of the CEI’s efforts in the arena have been. Earlier this year, the CEI launched NoBeachHouseBailouts.org, which appears to promote itself on the specious notion that a national catastrophe defense fund, such as the one outlined in the Homeowner’s Defense Act of 2008, would primarily benefit the likes of super-rich celebrities seeking government bailout funds for their beach-front mansions. It’s the kind of cynical sloganeering we’d expect in a nasty political campaign (Lehrer himself was a speechwriter for Bill Frist, R-TN), especially since it goes for a gut reaction instead of considering the facts.

When we study poverty rates along all coastal counties subject to Atlantic hurricanes (figures provided by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Data Service, 2007) we find that 10 of the 19 states with coastal risk exposures to Atlantic hurricanes have higher poverty rates on the coast than the statewide average. And across all coastal states subject to hurricanes, the average county poverty rate in 2007 is 12.4%, only 0.6% below the national rate.

More to the point, if we look at regional data, an even more interesting picture emerges. Coastal poverty rates are lower than the national average almost across the board in states from Virginia through Maine — those northeastern states that have a much milder hurricane history than their more southern counterparts.

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Coastal poverty rates from North Carolina through Texas — the states where hurricanes make landfall most frequently — were almost entirely above state averages. And this, in states where the statewide averages themselves were universally several points higher than the national poverty average.

Bottom line: a national catastrophe defense fund is meant to provide for those who cannot afford to rebound from a hurricane strike with the means to do so.

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The states that would benefit from this the most are poorer southern states that already have higher-than-average rates of poverty compared to the rest of the nation, and whose coasts are even more poverty-stricken. To suggest that a national catastrophe defense fund would primarily bailout celebrities such as Donald Trump, Tiger Woods and John Travolta, as the CEI does, displays a certain ignorance of the wider economic reality of coastal risk.

It is tempting indeed to suggest that if people do not wish to deal with coastal risk, they should simply move away from the coast. However, such wishful thinking flies in the face of global human behavior, which is showing more movement toward coastal areas than at any other time in the history of our species.

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Coastal risk cannot be dismissed with a wave of the hand, nor is it primarily borne by those with more than enough personal resources to cope with the risks.

If the CEI is so bothered by the thought of millionaires benefiting from a catastrophe defense fund, then a more reasoned approach would be to lobby for a condition exempting homeowners with single property values over a certain amount, on the basis that such property owners already have enough to afford proper levels of insurance, or can finance their risk independently, rather than argue to deny our nation’s coastal poor the benefit of government relief when the next major hurricane strikes them.