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Catastrophic Floods More Frequent in 2019

Last week, after already experiencing heavy rainfalls and flooding, New Orleans was preparing for tropical storm Barry, expecting the storm to overflow or even breach the city’s levees. Flights in and out of the city were cancelled, as were concerts and other public events, as the city braced for catastrophe. Barry ended up narrowly missing New Orleans, and instead moved inland, drenching other parts of Louisiana and Mississippi and causing floods and mass power outages in those areas. It was yet another example of how major flooding has become a normal occurrence for many regions of the country, and by all indications, it is becoming worse each year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated in its report 2017 State of U.S. High Tide Flooding and 2018 Outlook that “The projected increase in high tide flooding in 2018 may be as much as 60 percent higher across U.S. coastlines as compared to typical flooding about 20 years ago and 100% higher than 30 years ago.” This prediction turned out to be accurate, as the United States saw massive flooding throughout 2018, including “sunny-day” or “high-tide” flooding that occurs during high tides outside of hurricane events.

In its recent report on 2018 high-tide flooding and 2019 outlook, the NOAA said that these floods’ median frequency in 2018 “reached 5 days, which tied the historical record of 2015.” Of the 98 observed locations along the U.S. coastline, 12 reportedly broke or tied their all-time records for high-tide flooding in 2018. And now, the NOAA is predicting that 2019 could be even worse.

The NOAA noted that high-tide flooding “is increasingly common due to years of relative sea level increases. It no longer takes a strong storm or a hurricane to cause flooding in many coastal areas.” The Union of Concerned Scientists has said that sea level rise is accelerating, that “sea levels in the U.S. are rising fastest along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico,” and that the primary reason for this sea level rise is climate change melting land ice and heating oceans.

According to the NOAA’s 2019 projections, it expects high-tide flooding along the U.S. coastlines this year to reach double the numbers from 2000. Additionally, “the Northeast Atlantic could see a 140% increase, the Southeast could see a 190% increase, and the Western Gulf of Mexico could see a 130% increase.”

Almost 40% of the U.S. population lives in coastal areas, and could be at risk from flooding effects. With the start of hurricane season, these dangers will only increase as storms batter the coasts. Even before Barry threatened, New Orleans faced massive flooding last week, while Pittsburgh contended with flash floods. And the week before, heavy rains left Washington, D.C. and surrounding towns swimming in water that overwhelmed the city’s storm water pipes.

These increasing floods mean serious losses for people, municipalities and businesses. The recent DC-area floods reportedly caused $3.5 million in damage to Arlington, Virginia county infrastructure alone. In March, a “bomb cyclone” hit Nebraska, with heavy rainfall causing damages totaling more than $1.3 billion. This figure includes $449 million in road, levee and other infrastructure damage, as well as serious damage to more than 2,000 homes and 340 businesses. Iowa also experienced flooding that caused water treatment plants to shut down, depriving two cities’ residents of fresh water. And across the Midwest, agriculture was also hit hard by flooding, slowing corn and soybean planting. The delay may decrease harvests by at least 8% and increase prices worldwide.

As Risk Management Monitor has previously reported, Texas A&M University at Galveston and the Texas General Land Office examined the 50-year impact of a major storm hitting Galveston Bay on the Texas coast near Houston, finding that major storm events that caused flooding would have huge secondary effects on the economy, both locally and nationally.

Various states, including those along the Mississippi River, have already enacted flood control measures like levees, dams and flood walls, but have seen this year’s increased flooding defeat these measures. Others have encouraged residents to purchase flood insurance to offset losses. But the increasing scope of future floods may mean that these steps are not enough. Though tropical storm Barry missed New Orleans, experts have still expressed concern about coming storms possibly “topping” the city’s levees, which could cause even more damage to the already-flooded city.

The New Orleans Hurricane Protection System

I’m a sucker for shows about disasters. “Mega Disasters” on the History Channel might be my favorite show. (With the one about the Yellowstone “Supervolcano” being my favorite.

Recently, I was watching another program in this genre, “Earth Under Water,” on Nat Geo. I’m not sure if this is a series or just a one-off, but it is pretty fascinating. It predictably discusses the coming climate change sea-level rise with the subtext being that we’re all pretty much, no pun intended, up the river without a paddle on this one. And if you live on the coast? Just move inland now.

Scientific sensationalism and wild prognostications aside, there was also a lot of great information. Watch the video segment taken from the show below for instance. Here, they discuss the New Orleans Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System, an ongoing $15 billion project that has, predictably, proven contentious of late.

Learning from Katrina: Storm Surge Protection Is Paramount

dutch dam

On August 29, 2005, the levees that were supposed to protect New Orleans failed catastrophically. The United States Army Corps of Engineers simply did not do the job it was tasked to do. As such, it was found liable for the flooding in court.

“It is the court’s opinion that the negligence of the Corps, in this instance by failing to maintain the MRGO properly, was not policy, but insouciance, myopia and short-sightedness,” U.S. District Court Judge Stanwood Duval Jr. wrote in his lengthy ruling, referring to the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet canal.
“For over 40 years, the Corps was aware that the Reach II levee protecting Chalmette and the Lower Ninth Ward was going to be compromised by the continued deterioration of the MRGO … The Corps had an opportunity to take a myriad of actions to alleviate this deterioration or rehabilitate this deterioration and failed to do so. Clearly, the expression ‘talk is cheap’ applies here.”

“It is the court’s opinion that the negligence of the Corps, in this instance by failing to maintain the MRGO properly, was not policy, but insouciance, myopia and short-sightedness,” U.S. District Court Judge Stanwood Duval Jr. wrote in his lengthy ruling, referring to the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet canal.

“For over 40 years, the Corps was aware that the Reach II levee protecting Chalmette and the Lower Ninth Ward was going to be compromised by the continued deterioration of the MRGO … The Corps had an opportunity to take a myriad of actions to alleviate this deterioration or rehabilitate this deterioration and failed to do so. Clearly, the expression ‘talk is cheap’ applies here.”

Clearly, the man-made protection was not up to par. The storm surge that rushed inland was too great for it to restrain.

As many have noted in the past five years, however, there were other safeguards that historically protected New Orleans: coastal wetlands and barrier islands. But for decades, as National Geographic notes, these were allowed to erode away to the point that they could offer little resistance to the rising tides that ultimately breached the levees.

When Hurricane Katrina smacked the Gulf Coast in August 2005, the protection from powerful storm surges provided by coastal wetlands and barrier islands had gradually been whittled away. Since the 1930s, Louisiana had lost 1.2 million acres of coastal wetlands. More than two dozen dams and thousands of miles of levees on the Mississippi River had trapped sediment that otherwise would have replenished them. At the same time, wetlands were drained and filled to enable oil and commercial development in the Gulf region. Even as the Army Corps of Engineers failed to adequately maintain levees to keep the floodwaters at bay, this loss of natural protection worsened the catastrophe.

Of course, this is not an issue unique to New Orleans.

Across the globe, protective wetlands are disappearing. At the same time, coastal populations are expanding. The combination is deadly and means that wind storms and flooding that would have been less catastrophic to society just a few decades ago are now inherently capable of creating more damage more easily to more people. The NatGeo piece uses the current, historic flooding in Pakistan and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as examples of major disasters that could have been less disastrous if the natural protective barriers had not been allowed to degrade so dramatically.

With some investment, however, scientists believe that such ecosystems can be restored and again provide protective benefits.

Just as we buy home insurance and life insurance to protect ourselves and our families from catastrophic losses, so society now needs to “buy” disaster insurance to reduce the damage caused by floods and other weather-related events. By strategically investing in the protection and restoration of ecological infrastructure, we can begin to re-gain the benefits of nature’s services.

Some nascent efforts in this direction have at least been floated. Within a month of the Asian tsunami, officials in Indonesia–where more than 126,000 of the tsunami deaths had occurred and where some 1.6 million acres of coastal mangroves had been lost in the preceding few decades–announced a large-scale effort to restore the nation’s mangrove defenses. In the aftermath of Katrina, U.S. scientists have been studying the idea of diverting Mississippi River water back toward Louisiana’s disappearing coastal swamps, to supply the nutrients and sediments needed to rebuild them.

Overall, however, the story is one of inertia, neglect and missed opportunity. After the Great Midwest Flood of 1993, U.S. researchers estimated that restoration of 13 million acres of wetlands in the upper portion of the Mississippi-Missouri watershed, at a cost of $2-3 billion, would have absorbed enough floodwater to have substantially reduced the $16 billion in flood damages from that event. But instead of calling floodplains and wetlands back into active duty, officials in the region permitted even more floodplain development. Nicholas Pinter of Southern Illinois University estimates that 28,000 new homes and 6,630 acres of commercial and industrial development have since sprung up on land that was under water in 1993.

I interviewed former FEMA head James Lee Witt in 2008 (following the Sichuan earthquake in China and Cyclone Nargis that hit Burma soon after), and he was a proponent using natural barriers as well. Here he highlights one of the initiatives he enacted along the riverbanks of the Red River after devastating flooding there in 1997 caused some $3.5 billion in damages.

We utilized the mitigation and buy-out relocation programs [after the flood]. Mayor Pat Owens in Grand Forks [North Dakota] and Mayor Lynn Stauss in East Grand Forks [Minnesota] took all that space and turned it into green, open-space parks. And the Army Corps of Engineers did a fantastic job on the levee work there. You should see that town now. It is a model of prevention.

Mayor Strauss in East Grand Forks took the area we bought out-which still had all the infrastructure, streets and huge trees right along the river-and turned that into an motor home park where people can camp in the summer. It turned into an absolutely beautiful city.

The lesson in all this is that prevention, both natural and man-made, must be prioritized by city planners. If there is a threat of flooding, particularly if the natural barriers that have historically protected the city are disappearing, the municipality must find a way to refortify its shorelines and riverbanks.

Unfortunately, those who propose anything with the words “restore” and “ecosystem” in the same sentence are often quickly dismissed as tree-huggers who are overly concerned with protecting wildlife. With city and state budgets stretched thin, that is not something many citizens can get behind. But it is not about saving the whales — it is about saving people.

And, ultimately, from a protection standpoint, man-made barriers can be just as good in many locations. In New Orleans, for example, they are nearing the completion of a new protection system.

Nearly five years after Katrina and the devastating failures of the levee system, New Orleans is well on its way to getting the protection system Congress ordered: a ring of 350 miles of linked levees, flood walls, gates and pumps that surrounds the city and should defend it against the kind of flooding that in any given year has a 1 percent chance of occurring.

The scale of the nearly $15 billion project, which is not due to be completed until the beginning of next year’s hurricane season, brings to mind an earlier age when the nation built huge works like the Brooklyn Bridge, the Hoover Dam and the Interstate highway system.

The city’s reinforced defenses are already stronger than they were before Katrina. But even after 2011, experts argue, they will still provide less protection than New Orleans needs to avoid serious flooding in massive storms.

This new system is not a Dutch-level engineering marvel that will hold back virtually anything short of Armageddon. You would think that the the death of so many New Orleans residents would have spurred the same “never again” mentality that the Dutch took after they lost 2,000 of their citizens to a flood in 1953 — not the creation of a 100-year protective system (meaning that those who construct it essentially expect it will likely fail within a century when an unusually strong, but not unthinkably strong, storm strikes).

But it is certainly a vast improvement over what existed in 2005.

Now, if we can just get other areas to see the importance of holding back floodwaters before they devastate the community, we will really be making some progress.

Learning from Katrina

hurricane katrina

As we look back upon the fifth anniversary of worst hurricane in U.S. history, two windstorms churn through the Atlantic. The first, Danielle, fortunately veered away from the coastline, its destructive power withering by the hour. The second, Earl, on the other hand, is strengthening, with sustained winds already reaching 135 mph and a trajectory that has the whole Eastern Seaboard on watch.

Katrina taught us many things about disaster preparedness and response. It gave us vivid, appalling visions of a new worst-case scenario. Even more powerfully, Spike Lee put together two gripping documentaries that unveil the true, long-term magnitude of the tragedy, the second of which, If God Is Willing And Da Creek Don’t Rise, recently premiered on HBO and is a much-watch look into just how much the city has suffered — without crumbling — since the floodwaters receded.

At Risk Management magazine, ever since the storm, we have tried to tell some of the city’s other stories. I wrote an article about the New Orleans Museum of Art’s harrowing days after the storm and the commando art restoration team that saved collections throughout the city. Another story detailed how a casino risk manager in the midst of a major merger had to deal with $1 billion in lost property after his company’s riverboat was thrown 2,000 feet by storm surge. And we tried to find some semblance of a silver lining by offering these lessons that all of us can learn from a disaster of this magnitude.

Unfortunately, it seems as though few lessons have actually been learned. Oh, they have been discussed ad nauseum and the outrage expressed has generally been genuine. But actual behavior has largely remained unchanged. Still, most people admit that they are unprepared for disasters.

Hopefully, most companies and organizations are more confident. But many are not — or at least have no cause to be. Along these lines, we plan to spend the rest of this week (and much of September, which is National Preparedness Month) remembering what happened on August 29, 2005, and emphasizing the importance of disaster preparedness and response.

I encourage you to click some of the links above and check back soon for more.