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Recovering from Hurricane Matthew

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Many organizations in the southeastern United States recovering from Hurricane Matthew are still dealing with downed power lines, swollen rivers and blocked roads. As soon as they are able to, business owners should start assessing damage to their property and begin their insurance recovery process. They will need to assess not only physical damage to their property but also any income losses that may have occurred as a result of flooded and blocked roads and bridges, interrupted shipping and air transport, evacuations, and closures by civil authority.

They need to gather the information they’ll need for their insurer, and also be familiar with their policy and policy language. “In the runup to a storm, we always hear insurance executives on the news assuring the public that they will take care of things—that policyholders can rest assured,” Marshall Gilinsky, a shareholder in the insurance recovery group at Anderson Kill P.C., said in a statement. “But it’s vital for businesses not to assume everything’s going to be taken care of automatically. Storm-related claims can run into a snarl of unclear policy provisions, sublimits and exclusions, and occasionally obstreperous insurance company adjusters. A false sense of security leads easily to lost insurance proceeds.”

Businesses impacted by the storm that have flood insurance, he said, “should look for coverage not only for physical damage to their premises due to any flooding, but also business interruption and contingent business interruption coverage.” For best results, they should be sure they are up-to-date on how their insurer defines and invokes sublimits for “flood,” “storm surge” and “named storms” and how their insurer deals with claims that include damages from both wind and flood, Gilinsky said.

According to Galinsky, the following coverages (and coverage limits) will apply in a storm’s aftermath:

Business interruption or BI covers businesses for losses stemming from unavoidable interruptions in their daily operations.  BI coverage may be triggered by circumstances including a forced shut-down, a downturn in business due to damage to premises, or a substantial impairment in access to a business’s plant or premises.

Businesses that are not themselves forced to close may be able to tap contingent business interruption coverage, triggered when policyholders do not themselves suffer physical damage but still lose revenue after a property loss sidelines a major supplier or customer base.  Contingent BI is a standard provision in many property insurance policies, though many small businesses are not aware of it.

Also in play will be coverage for evacuation by order of civil authority, triggered when authorities close off access to a damaged area – and ingress egress coverage, which insures lost profits due to difficulties in accessing the insured premises due to the storm. Again, damage to the insured’s own property is not required to trigger coverage — though typically, the losses must result from property damage of a type covered by the insurance policy.

“Too many businesses do not think about insurance unless their premises are damaged—or if they do, they fail to calculate the full range of loss,” Gilinsky said. “Small businesses in particular may not even be aware of their civil authority, ingress egress and business interruption coverage, let alone their contingent business interruption coverage.”

He also noted that many commercial property insurance policies provide different sublimits for losses caused by “flood,” “storm surge” and “named storms.” How the policy defines these key terms can be critical in determining the amount recoverable for the policyholder’s loss.

The Property Casualty Insurers Association of America offered the following tips to help businesses through their recovery process.

Business Recovery Information

  • In the aftermath of natural disasters, businesses should take immediate steps to minimize damage, speed up the claims process and accelerate business recovery. Assess the damage and report all damage to your insurance company agent as soon as possible.
  • Take pictures of your building and contents to document the damage.
  • Check for safety hazards, such as downed trees, branches, downed power wires and leaking gas.
  • Keep all receipts for anything purchased for that purpose so they can be submitted to your insurance company.
  • Be prepared to list the “replacement cost” of each item and its actual cash value.
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    Replacement cost is what it would cost today to replace an item with another one just like it. Actual cash value is what the item is really worth after deducting for depreciation and wear.

  • Restore your utilities, phone service, gas lines and other important links as soon as possible.
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  • Business interruption coverage is complex and will vary by insurers. It is important to read your policy and understand what is and is not covered.
  • As you seek contractors to make repairs, deal only with reliable, licensed professionals.
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    Get written bids from the contractor, but don’t sign any contracts or give a deposit until you have seen your insurance adjuster.

  • If you or your employees get involved in clean-up efforts, use safety items like proper eyewear, gloves, hardhats, dust masks and respirators.
  • Keep detailed records of business activity and extra expenses during the interruption period, and prepare records to show the income from the business both before and after the loss.

Hurricane Matthew Could Impact Renewals, Reinsurers

Downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday, Hurricane Matthew proceeded to work its way north, pummeling coastal regions of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, where rivers are overflowing and flooding continues. So far, Matthew has killed nearly 900 people in Haiti and 17 in the United States. More than 2 million U.S. homes and businesses lost power over the weekend, according to Reuters.

CoreLogic said today that it anticipates hurricane-related insured property losses for both residential and commercial properties to be between billion and billion from wind and storm surge damage.

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The amount does not include insured losses related to additional flooding, business interruption or contents.

CoreLogic: Hurricane Matthew Loss Contribution by County in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina
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Willis Towers Watson said on Friday that the storm’s losses are not expected to adversely affect the insurance industry, due to abundant capacity. Organizations with upcoming renewals, however, may be impacted, the company warned.

“There will still be upset for the next couple of weeks, and underwriters will be skittish about renewing business until they calculate their losses,” Gary Marchitello, head of property broking at Willis Towers Watson, said in a statement. “Anyone with the misfortune of renewing programs with East or Gulf coast exposures over the next 4 to 6 weeks will be challenged to secure property coverage at favorable terms.”

Despite the excess capacity, the market is “ripe for an opportunity to turn,” and an event or aggregated events “will drive pricing adjustments,” he said.

Fitch Ratings said Hurricane Matthew will put pressure on earnings of some insurance underwriters in Florida and other southeast states but is “not expected to present a major capital challenge.” If storm insured losses exceed $10 billion, Fitch said a greater proportion of the losses will be borne by reinsurers as opposed to primary companies.

According to Fitch, the homeowner’s market share has shifted away from large national writers and the state-sponsored Citizens Property Insurance Corp. to a number of smaller Florida homeowners specialists. “A lack of storm activity over the last decade has substantially increased the claims paying resources to meet catastrophe losses, such as those arising from Matthew, of both Citizens and state-sponsored reinsurer, the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund (FHCF),” Fitch said.

Primary insurers with the largest exposure in Florida are: Universal Insurance Holding Group, Tower Hill Group, State Farm Mutual Group, Citizens Property Insurance Corporation and Federated National Insurance Company.

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Property insurers writing business in Florida rely heavily on reinsurance protection and other methods to mitigate their risk of extreme loss.

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“As a result, the FHCF, the traditional and collateralized reinsurance markets and the catastrophe bond market could have meaningful exposure to losses from Matthew,” Fitch said. Fitch estimates that FHCF has assumed the largest level of premiums by a wide margin. Among private entities, Lloyd’s of London appears to be the next largest reinsurer followed by Allianz SE; Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc.; Everest Re Group, Ltd.; and XL Group Plc., Fitch said.

Anticipating Hurricane Matthew, 4 States Declare Emergency

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Rebounding to Category 4 hurricane classification, Matthew now has winds up to 140 miles per hour and has caused at least 28 deaths in three Caribbean countries. It is heading for the southeastern U.S., where four states—Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina—have issued a state of emergency and evacuation orders in coastal regions.

Matthew was a Category 4 hurricane through Tuesday, was downgraded to a Category 3 early on Wednesday, and has now returned to Category 4 strength today, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Florida Gov. Rick Scott issued a warning on Thursday urging those in evacuation zones to leave immediately. “Based on the current forecast, the heights of storm surge will be above ground. Waves will be crashing on roofs. Homes will be destroyed,” he tweeted in both English and Spanish on Thursday morning.

“Time is up, Hurricane Matthew is approaching Florida. If you are in an evacuation zone, leave now,” he said in a statement. “To everyone on Florida’s east coast, if you are reluctant to evacuate, just think of all the people the hurricane has already killed.  You and your family could be among these numbers if you don’t take this seriously.”

Scott said that so far more than 4,000 National Guard members have been activated to help with evacuations and sheltering. He tweeted that as of 6:00 a.m., more than 3,000 people were in about 60 shelters.

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The state offers a mobile app to help those in flood-prone areas find the nearest shelter and also avoid traffic congestion.

A state of emergency has been declared by Georgia’s governor for 13 coastal counties. South Carolina’s governor declared a state of emergency and has begun coastal evacuations that may affect up to 1 million people. Because of heavy traffic, lane reversals on some highways are in effect, and schools and government offices in 25 South Carolina counties are closed today.

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North Carolina’s governor has declared a state of emergency for more than 50 counties and issued a mandatory evacuation order for Ocracoke Island, AIR Worldwide reported.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has sent personnel and supplies to all four states, and President Obama is meeting with FEMA officials coordinating the response to Hurricane Matthew at the agency’s headquarters in Washington, D.C.

According to CoreLogic, a Category 3 storm hitting Miami could potentially damage 176,000 homes at a reconstruction cost value (RCV) of about $3.8 billion.

CoreLogic’s Storm Surge Risk Report estimates that more than 6.8 million homes located along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts are at risk of storm surge damage, with a total RCV of about $1.5 trillion.The length of coastline, coastal elevation and density of residential development all contribute to the risk of storm surge flooding.
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According to CoreLogic, the total number and total value of residential properties for the four states currently bracing for Hurricane Matthew are:

Total Number and Total Value of Residential Properties by State

P&C Insurers Face Lower Profit Margins

High insured losses from natural catastrophes, challenges from the personal auto business and pricing competition will make it more difficult for the property and casualty industry to maintain the favorable underwriting results it has seen for the past three years, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

In its U.S. P&C Insurance Market Report, S&P predicts an increase in the industry’sDown chart2 statutory combined ratio to 99.5% in 2016 from 97.6% in 2015 and reduction of pretax returns on equity to 8.7% from 10.8%—or to 7.5% from 9.9% when adjusting for the impact of prior-year reserve development.

“Profit margins are projected to be much narrower than they have been in the last few years, unless something dramatic happens,” report authors Tim Zawacki, senior editor and Terry Leone, manager of insurance research at S&P Global Market Intelligence said in a statement. “While insurers have wisely accounted for the fact that they haven’t been able to depend on investment gains to subsidize underwriting losses, they still need to practice restraint as they seek growth.”

Commercial Lines
The commercial lines combined ratio is projected to increase to 95.1% from 93.4% for 2015, which represented the third-consecutive year that the measure of underwriting profitability had ranged between 93.3% and 93.5%.

According to the report, premium growth in the commercial lines has benefited from factors such as slow, but steady macroeconomic growth and rate increases in commercial auto business, offset by continued downward pressure on commercial property rates. The outlook anticipates that the 93.9% combined ratio in the workers compensation line in 2015—which marked the first sub-100% result in that business since 2006—will not be repeated and that historically favorable results of the past three years in commercial multiperil and the fire and allied lines will begin to normalize over time.

Factors such as abundant reinsurance capacity, favorable underwriting results and relatively high levels of capitalization have contributed to downward pressure on commercial lines rates. The outlook assumes that carriers will continue to exhibit discipline in their underwriting, as recent contractions in Treasury yields in the aftermath of the U.K.’s June Brexit vote offer a reminder of the reinvestment risk the industry continues to confront, in what remains a low-for-long interest rate environment, S&P said.

Key observations
• Reduced Profitability: The P&C industry’s pre-tax ROE is projected to decline about 2 percentage points in 2016 while its combined ratio, which measures expenses incurred relative to premiums earned, is projected to increase to 99.5%, the highest level since 2012.
• Increased Investment Risk: Declining Treasury yields in the aftermath of the U.K.’s Brexit referendum have reinforced the challenges the industry faces to earn reliable, low-risk investment income, putting additional pressure on underwriting discipline.
• Weak First Half: Large increases in the amount of insured catastrophe losses during the first half of 2016 will negatively impact loss ratios in several business lines that have produced historically favorable results during the past three years.
• Personal lines: Historically unfavorable results in the private-passenger auto business are projected to deteriorate further in 2016 as miles driven by Americans continue to rise due to low gas prices. They will begin to improve once broad-based rate increases fully take hold, but this will take some time.
• Financial Results Hinge on Auto Line Performance: Private auto lines accounted for 34.4% of the industry’s 2015 direct premiums and, as financials demonstrated, the performance of those lines have played a significant role on the fate of underwriting.
• Future Issues: Favorable reserve development, broad access to reinsurance capacity, and a series of benign hurricane seasons have provided tailwinds to the industry in recent years. But none of those elements will continue in perpetuity and the absence of any one of them could create additional hurdles for the industry from a profitability perspective in 2016 and beyond.