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The New Reality of Risk

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In wondering what the new year has in store for the insurance industry, Marsh hosted “The New Reality of Risk – U.S. Insurance Markets and Risk Trends in 2013,” a webinar produced on the heels of their Insurance Market Report 2013 publication. The webinar touched on firming in the market, Superstorm Sandy, cat models and workers comp, among other things, with insights from:

  • Dean Klisura, U.S. risk practices leader for Marsh
  • Cliff Rich, managing director in Guy Carpenter’s global business intelligence unit
  • Duncan Ellis, Marsh’s U.S. property practice leader
  • Jon Zaffino, Marsh’s U.S. casualty practice leader
  • Chris Lang, U.S. placement leader for Marsh’s FINPRO practice
  • Claude Yoder, head of Marsh global analytics

Catastrophe Market

“One thing we have seen change dramatically in the past two years relates to cat losses,” said Klisura. As he noted, insured losses over the past 10 years have averaged $50 billion, with a spike in 2011. The industry has experienced two straight years of well above average losses — coupled with feeling the effects of low interest rates and a shaky economy. “However, the industry still remains well capitalized,” Klisura remarked.

Klisura doesn’t envision a hardening environment, but claims certain sectors of the market are in transition. “A few things risk managers should keep an eye on in 2013 are cat exposed property risk, including risk with flood zone exposures — it will be a big one,” said Klisura. He also noted that certain sectors of workers comp market will may experience changes along with complex financial institution risk and competition among insurers, which is expected to remain intense in 2013.

Reinsurance

The reinsurance market at January 1 was characterized as stable. Superstorm Sandy, crop losses and other severe weather outbreaks resulted in global losses of $60 billion, which was less than 2011 losses, but the sector continues to be challenged by the macroeconomic environment — namely, the economy. “Casualty rates increased modestly in 2012 but at January 1, 2013, renewal rates, casualty pricing stabilized,” said Cliff Rich.

Cat Limits

According to the panelists, carriers are being a little more stingy around cat limits. For cat sub limits, they are seeing carriers limiting the amount of flood coverage. For deductibles, they’re seeing a push for per-location deductibles on flood vs traditional per-occurrence deductibles. For premiums, there is renewed pressure on some cat exposed insureds and on a client by client basis. “For 2013, I think it’s much of the same we’ve seen,” said Ellis. “2012 could be the third year in a row that property insurers have not realized a profit. The big unknown? 2013 losses.” There is a potential for “trading” between retention and premium, he explained.

Cat Models

In terms of catastrophe models, Ellis feels they will change to take into account both Irene, which had insured losses of $4.4 billion, and Sandy, which had insured losses of $18 to $25 billion. This drives home the point that insureds should provide high quality data for models. “What I’ve heard is that losses from Sandy are what was expected from modeling,” Ellis said. “But models will change.”

There are several widely used models for wind and earthquake, Ellis pointed out. But that’s not the case with flood, despite flooding being the loss leading peril over the last few years. “There’s nothing consistent market-wide yet,” he said.

Casualty Market 

Jon Zaffino explained that insurer competition is strong. However, challenges may arise from clients with difficult loss experience and certain individual risks, or line of business characteristics. “It’s a tug of war between the technical and trading environment,” he said. “We may see rates flattening in some lines in 2nd half of 2013.”

  • Technical – macro factors such as loos-cost trend, interest rates, etc.
  • Trading – insurance supply/insurer appetite and market depth and breadth

Workers Comp

This segment continues to operate at historically unprofitable rates for insurers. Marsh illustrates this with a graphic based on their client accounts.

“Medical expenses as a percentage of toal claims continues to rise, along with the escalation of prescribtion drug use and abuse,” said Zaffino.” Active pre- and post-loss programs, medical cost containment measures and a variety of other technigues help clients manage their claims.

“The largest trend we’re really seeing in casualty is the need to create a comprehensive view of total cost of risk, or TCOR,” said Yoder. “For workers comp, there is much available data, advances in the way insurers calibrate their underwriting and pricing, and a wave of claims-based modeling. Plus, predictive analytics use in claims modeling is accelerating.”

Directors and Officers 

According to Chris Lang, rates in the management liability market are trending upward. As 2012 progressed, leading insueres obtained upwards of 10% increases, and average program rate increases of 5%. “Smaller sized market companies are experiencing higher rate increases than are larger companies,” said Lang. “In 2013, expect insurers’ rate discipline to continue.”

Regulatory actions are increasing. According to NERA, in 2012, settlements rose 6.6% compared with 2011, to 714.

 

Property Insurance Rates Still Rising

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Risk managers have long been hoping that the soft insurance market would never end. For years, rates have been low and risk transfer has been relatively cheap. Increasingly obvious signs of a market turn have been surfacing for a while now, so the fact that rates are now hardening isn’t exactly a shock. But it is nevertheless difficult medicine to swallow. And when it comes to insuring commercial property, especially when it has natural disaster exposure, the good ol’ days are now essentially over.

A first quarter pricing report from Marsh confirms the bad news, showing that property insurance rates have increased between 10%-20% for natural-catastrophe-exposed property. Even accounts with no disaster risk are about 10%.

“In the U.S., the property market continues to be in a state of transition with insureds more likely to experience rate increases than those renewing with flat or modest rate decreases,”  said Dean Klisura, leader of Marsh’s U.S. risk practices unit. “We believe that this trend will continue in the short term, with the average rate of increase continuing to rise month over month.”

As they say, everything ends badly — otherwise it wouldn’t end.

Flash Mobs and Black Friday: Retailers Prepare!

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The term “flash mob” was coined in 2003 to describe a sudden, large-scale gathering of people in one specific location to perform an unusual and sometimes pointless act for a brief period of time. With the growing popularity of Facebook, Twitter and viral emails, flash mobs have grown much larger and, in some cases, dangerous.

Though most of these events are organized solely for the purpose of artistic expression or to merely entertain passers by, some flash mobs have become “flash robs” — where groups descend on stores and other venues to, in most cases, steal merchandise. These events can easily injure employees and customers and cause monetary loss through theft and damage to property. And the threat is real. In fact, Marsh recently released Responding to Flash Mob/Rob Events, which, among other things, outlines steps retailers should take before, during and after a flash mob event, such as:

  • monitoring of social media websites to identify potential threats
  • reviewing business interruption plans and insurance programs with regards to partial or full shutdown of a location
  • providing training to employees related to disorderly conduct, assault, theft and looting
  • developing internal and external communications plans before an event
  • communicating frequently with local law enforcement

With Black Friday just two days away, the threat of flash robs is on the minds of retailers, and if it’s not, it should be. The National Retail Federation has compiled guidelines and protocols of more than 100 retail companies to better understand how to respond.

Now let’s take a look at three videos. The first is an example of a peaceful flash mob, the second is an example of a dangerous flash rob and the third is an analysis of the flash mob epidemic as a spiritual issue.

The New Era of Regulatory Enforcement — Comply or Go Directly to Jail

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[Each year, the best Canadian risk managers gather to discuss the state of the discipline at the RIMS Canada Conference. The 2011 incarnation is taking place this week in Ottawa so I will be reporting from here for the next few days.]

“The possibility of doing jail time is real from the board room to the warehouse floor,” said Jay Cassidy yesterday at the 2011 RIMS Canada Conference, summing up the new anti-corporate fraud stance taken by U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder in recent years. “It’s not going to be a slap on the wrist. It’s gong to be very personal. And [they] will put you in jail.”

This was the key takeaway from a Monday afternoon panel discussion at the conference, which was focusing on regulatory expansion and led by Cassidy, senior vice president at Marsh Canada. Things have changed and rules created by Dodd-Frank and the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act will have wide-ranging implications — and penalties — for any offending companies.

Another trend is that regulatory agencies are increasingly working together and employing new tools they haven’t used in the past. The SEC and Department of Justice are reaching out to the FBI, for example, for expertise and resources. They have begun wiretapping when it is deemed necessary. In all respects, the regulatory bodies are widening the scope of what they can use to investigate.

One aspect of the reform receiving a lot of coverage is new whistleblower incentives. Now, anyone who reports a company for rule-breaking may be eligible to pocket up to 30% of the sum that officials deem was ill-gotten. Even if the offense is only valued at $1 million, that’s a nice little bonus for the whistleblower. Imagine if it is $1 billion.

Given this, it’s not hard to see why more people might become tipsters for the government. And according to the panelists, the Department of Justice is now expecting to receive upwards of 30,000 tips per year.

This may not lead to more major fraud rulings, however.

“Whisteblowers have always been principles-based more than looking for some sort of monetary pay-off,” said Ashley Beales, vice president at Berkley Professional Liability. “It’s usually that they just can’t keep quiet anymore.”

The money will likely lead to more tips and perhaps the discovery of more minor violations, he said, but on the highest level, Beales doesn’t expect a new wave of huge violations to start flooding out. At least not to enough of a degree that would significantly alter the D&O market, something that is generally affected by major claims. “Significant fraud always bubbles to the top [regardless of incentives],” he said. “This volume will be more noise than substantive.”

But even if it is merely noise, that doesn’t mean companies are off the hook. “Even if it’s not a legitimate claim and the SEC comes knocking on the door … you don’t tell these people ‘Go away,'” said Laura Markovich, partner at Sedgwick. “They won’t. They’ll come back with a subpoena.”

And just dealing with false claims can run up a big bill quickly. “Lawyers are expensive,” said Cassidy, noting that this is even truer for Wall Street firms. “And New York lawyers are … well … they’re very expensive.”

In regards to increased Foreign Corrupt Practices Act enforcement, the panel said that there will be two major aspects for companies to consider: (1) anti-bribery provisions and (2) the accounting part, which will mandate the need for better internal controls.

The first factor may be especially important for Canadian companies. If they have operations in the United States (or in some cases, even if they don’t) they will be at risk of regulator action. And Cassidy cautioned that this may be difficult to navigate given the fact that Canada is increasingly becoming a resource-based economy. He mentioned that in other locations where this has been the case (Cassidy listed parts of Africa, Russia and Kazakhstan), corruption and bribes have been more typical than, say, in economies in which retail or services drive the economy. “Historically, business has been done a little differently than what we might find acceptable [in Canada],” said Cassidy.

Canada is certainly not Nigeria. The business climate and legal culture would never allow for pervasive bribery and other illegal behavior. So for those in the energy and resources sector, the obvious solution is to remain above board in all operations.

But I do image that many companies will find that, when shipping oil and coal throughout the world, staying true to your ethics — and even within the code of the law — can sometimes be easier said than done.

[Correction: this post originally listed Ashley Beales as working for Canada Berkley. It has been update to reflect the fact that the company is called Berkley Professional Liability. Apologies.]