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Rebuilding Japan May Cost More Than $300 Billion

According to the office of Prime Minister Naoto Kan, the cost of Japan’s rebuilding efforts following the earthquake may exceed $300 billion, which would easily make it the world’s most expensive natural disaster on record. (Hurricane Katrina, with an estimated $125 billion, inflicted the previous-record amount of damage.) There is often a big difference between early estimates and final tolls — particularly estimates coming from those who are directly affected — but the World Bank is also expecting the costs to come in around $250 billion.

Rebuilding after the 9.0-magnitude quake and tsunami, which ravaged the northeastern coast of the main Japanese island of Honshu, will cost up to $309 billion, Mr. Kan’s office said Wednesday. The World Bank, citing private estimates, said on Monday that the figure could reach $250 billion.

More on the insured loss estimates from the Japanese earthquake can be seen here.

Q&A: The Automotive Industry After the Quake

Though many industries were affected after the Japan earthquake and tsunami, there were some that were hit especially hard — electronics and automotive.

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To get a better glimpse of what the automotive industry was going through, I contacted Fred Hubacker, automotive supplier expert with Conway MacKenzie, a Detroit-based crisis management firm. The following is what transposed:

The earthquake and tsunami in Japan has created chaos for most companies
with operations in the area. How has the automotive industry fared. In your
opinion, was it the industry hardest hit?

FH: In general, the automotive industry has suffered tremendous loss from this
tragedy. Lost auto production, in Japan, could reach 335,000 units by the
end of this week (3/25). In addition, the effect is starting to be felt in
North America with overtime elimination and at least one assembly facility
down (GM Shreveport [Louisiana]) and downtime in Europe. Automotive seems to be the
hardest hit, at least on an immediate basis, however, the effect on other
industries such as electronics and aviation have not been widely reported
yet.

What were the major risks posed to automotive companies with operations
in the affected areas?

FH: The major risks include damage to their own assembly and component
manufacturing facilities, damage to suppliers producing many components
including electronics, petro-chemical products and powertrain components,
the loss of infrastructure including power, roads, water and transportation,
and of course, the issues created from the huge loss of human lives.

Was there one particular automotive company that was hit hardest?

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FH: Not entirely clear at this point but it appears that Honda has a heavier
concentration of suppliers in the quake zone than the other manufacturers.
Toyota, for example, is losing all Prius model production at the moment.

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How will such business interruptions in the automotive industry affect
other industries?

FH: Widespread component shortages and production downtime could ripple effect
to thousands of other auto component and logistics suppliers who were not
directly affected by the quake. Normal just-in-time suppliers will not be
able to continue production.

What can be done, if anything, to prevent such interruptions in the wake
of a catastrophe?

FH: Alternative sources can be developed, but generally that is a lengthy and
expensive process.

The Psychological Hurdle to Earthquake Preparedness

The final death toll from the earthquake and resulting tsunami in Japan is now expected to exceed 18,000. While that number paints a far graver picture than the initial, much lower estimates, many believe that the human fallout from a magnitude 9.0 quake would have been worse if it wasn’t for the country’s strict building codes.

In that sense, Japan’s path towards resiliency should be a lesson to other nations threatened by seismic activity. Either modernize and fortify your construction and infrastructure or jeopardize the lives of your citizens when the next major earthquake hits.

Unfortunately, improved building standards are not the only impediment to better preparedness. A new study from a University College London researcher Helene Joffe has shown that there are some significant psychological hurdles as well — and the underlying rationale may vary from culture to culture.

In Japan, for example, responses to her survey about how safe people would feel if an earthquake hit revealed a fatalistic outlook, meaning that many people didn’t believe that improved building standards — or any other preparedness efforts, really — would ultimately make any difference.

Japanese participants, while being the most confident in the structural integrity of their buildings, had a more negative response than those in the US when asked “How safe would you feel being inside your house during an earthquake?” The Japanese also scored lowest on the number of seismic adjustments they had made: an average of seven, compared with nine in the US. Joffe says there was far more talk of worry, anxiety, fear and a sense of vulnerability from Japanese respondents, while those in the US had a much greater feeling of optimism.

Japanese participants gave the impression that damage is caused by the force of an earthquake alone rather than arising as the result of interactions between uncontrollable geophysical events and controllable features of the built environment, says Joffe. “We found the Japanese participants to be more fatalistic than we expected,” she says. “The feeling was that you can do whatever to your house but what is going to happen is going to happen and there is very little you can do to change that.”

Other survey participants came from Turkey, another nation with high seismic risks. Here, too, people had a “there’s nothing you can do” attitude, something that was skewed both by religion and a distrust of government.

In Turkey, there was much more talk of earthquakes being an act of God. There was also much more talk of distrust in government and corruption. “They thought that their buildings were badly built and that there was nothing they could do to prepare because everything was negatively affected by corruption,” says Joffe.

We already know that there many hurdles to better disaster preparedness: budget constraints, complacency, a lack of urgency and an “it won’t happen to me” attitude, to name just a few. But according to Joffe, this new information means that policymakers must also begin to incorporate cultural understanding into their efforts.

Joffe’s team says the current models of seismic adjustment need to give a more prominent role to these cultural influences. They will use their results to identify how best to motivate people to make changes.

“If we find that fatalism is leading the Japanese not to make necessary adjustments, then it may be better to go in on the engineering side and retrofit their houses,” she says. “In Turkey, on the other hand, you’re not going to change vulnerability without starting with corruption.”

For more on the other psychological hurdles, read this excellent piece that FM Global’s Ruud Bosman wrote for us recently highlighting research that his company conducted.

Earthquake, Tsunami Reshape Japan’s Coastline

In the wake of the devastating earthquake and tsunami that ravaged Japan, the world’s attention has rightfully turned to to ongoing nuclear crisis at Fukushima. Three reactors are at risk of meltdown while spent fuel rods at a fourth reactor are at risk of catching fire, which would spew radioactive gas into the atmosphere. More than 200,000 people have either been evacuated or told by authorities to shelter-in-place and all but 50 workers at the nuclear plant have been sent home as radiation levels continue to “soar.” By all accounts this is now a full-scale international crisis as Japan’s neighbors are at risk and with the nation’s prime minister reporting asking energy “what the hell is going on?” the incident is becoming more harrowing by the minute.

All we can do now is monitor the information being reported and hope for the best in an incident that may already have caused insured losses of up to $35 billion, according to risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide, and has triggered the biggest two-day stock market decline in Japan since 1987, according to comments by CNBC’s Erin Burnett today on Morning Joe.

Looking back at the initial disaster, however, more and more is becoming known about the gravity of the catastrophe. The video below from ABC shows how the quake and tsunami drastically reshaped parts of Japan’s coastline. The awesome power of nature will never cease to amaze. Truly heart-breaking imagery. (More images of destruction can be seen here and here.)

For more breaking news coming out of Japan, stay tuned to our Twitter feed, @RiskMgmt.