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2010 Disasters Cost the World $218 Billion and the Insurance Industry $43 Billion

Swiss Re’s latest sigma study (full report; abstract) reveals that the final economic losses resulting from disasters (both natural and man-made) across the globe in 2010 was $218 billion — a number that dwarfs the $68 billion in damages caused by catastrophes in 2009.

With unprecedented flooding, Asia was the region worst hit, with $75 billion of the total occurring there. In relative terms, however, the fallout may be worse for the Latin America/Caribbean region. The $53 billion caused by the earthquakes in Haiti and Chile represents a staggering 1.1% of the region’s GDP. (By comparison, Asia’s billion in losses was only 0.

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28% of its GDP.)

Here is Swiss Re’s regional breakdown of the number of disasters, death toll and financial fallout.

Insured losses in 2010 totaled $43 billion as a whopping 10 different events caused insured losses of at least $1 billion. This was a huge jump from the $27 billion in insured losses for the global industry in 2009.

In all, 2010 had 304 catastrophic events.

The globe has seen a troubling trend of more natural catastrophes nearly every year in recent decades, and 2010 was no different with 167 natural disasters. On the flip side, the declining trend of man-made disasters the world has experienced since 2005 also held true, with just 137 man-made events. This is perhaps the only positive nugget of information in the entire report. (Although even this silver lining is bittersweet as you will see below when we look at the resulting death toll.)

Worst of all, of course, were the 304,000 people killed by disasters last year, making 2010 the third deadliest year since 1970 (the year Swiss Re first began collecting such data).

In 2010, severe catastrophes claimed significantly more lives than the previous year: around 304,000 were killed, compared to 15,000 in 2009. The deadliest event in 2010 was the Haiti earthquake in January, which claimed more than 222,000 lives. Nearly 56,000 people died during the summer heatwave in Russia. The summer floods in China and Pakistan also resulted in over 6,200 deaths.

Man-made disasters accounted for a small percentage of deaths last year, in relative terms, but the 6,446 killed was still a significantly higher number than the 5,970 who died in this manner in 2009. This fact puts a large blemish on the positive news that there were fewer man-made events. There may have been fewer incidents, but the ones that did occur were deadlier and that lower-occurrence/worse-outcome ratio should be going the other way in 2011 as safety, security and other risk management means strive to lessen the impact of catastrophes.

The man-made disasters that claimed the most victims in 2010 were a lead poisoning outbreak at an illegal gold mine in Nigeria in March (400 victims, mainly children), a stampede on a bridge at a festival in Cambodia in November (375 victims) and the collapse of a gold mine in Sierra Leone in March that killed approximately 200 people. Meanwhile, aviation and maritime disasters accounted for more than 800 and 1,100 victims respectively.

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Moving beyond the past, the globe has already been badly battered so far in 2011.

The Japanese earthquake and tsunami killed an estimated 18,500 people and caused upwards of $30 billion in insured losses alone, according to some experts. The Christchurch quake in New Zealand also ravaged the insurance industry, Australia floods cost billions and winter storms in the United States did plenty of damage of their own.

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Who knows what the final fallout will be from social revolutions in the Middle East, but it’s safe to say that there will be some claims.

All this and it’s not even hurricane season yet.

Hopefully, there is no way that more people will be killed by disasters in 2011 than we saw in 2010. But when it comes to economic losses, specifically insured losses, it is already shaping up to be a historic, market-altering year.

The Rising Cost of Disasters

A new report from Allianz analyzes the fact that the insurance claims from natural disaster are becoming more expensive. The key reason is not so much that there are more disasters, just more buildings, more development and more insurance. And as parts of the developing world, specifically China and India, continue to become more affluent, we can likely expect this to continue.

One way this is illustrated is by looking at the most powerful and more deadly earthquakes in each of the past ten years. In some years (2003, 2008 and 2011 so far), the strongest quake is also the most deadly.

But in other years, notably last year with the 8.

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8 magnitude earthquake in Chile killing 507 people and the 7.

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0 earthquake in Haiti killing more than 200,000, that has not been the case. The two main reasons for this is that the stronger quake either hits a very remote location where people don’t live or it hits a location with modern building codes and shake-resistant buildings.

Markus Treml, seismology expert at Allianz SE Reinsurance, explains.

The Energy factor shows the ratio between the seismic energy released by the two earthquakes. For example, the quake in Chile released 500 times more energy than the quake in Haiti. This table shows that those regions where tectonic plates clash are at highest risk. Six tremendous earthquakes happened in Indonesia in the last decade. All other earthquakes in this table – except Haiti – are also in high-risk zones. The amount of energy released does not necessarily mean more damage or casualties. Instead, weak buildings or secondary effects of earthquakes such as tsunamis or fires are the most common reason for high fatality rates.

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This was the case in Haiti in 2010, in Northern Sumatra in 2004 and will probably be the case for Japan.

As he mentions, the “energy factor” in the chart below represents how much more powerful the strongest earthquake was each year than the most deadly.

Countries Most Vulnerable to Economic Losses

Natural disasters in any form wreak havoc not only on the property and residents of the area affected, but also on its economic stability. Risk intelligence company Maplecroft set out to answer the question of which countries are most vulnerable to economic losses from natural disasters.

To answer this, they used their Natural Disasters Economic Loss Index (NDELI), which evaluates the economic impact of “earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, storms, flooding, drought, landslides, extreme temperatures and epidemics between 1980 and 2010.”

The results highlighted the top 10 most vulnerable countries as:

  1. Haiti
  2. Mozambique
  3. Honduras
  4. Vanuatu
  5. Zimbabwe
  6. El Salvador
  7. Nicaragua
  8. Sri Lanka
  9. Fiji
  10. Tajikistan

As for industrialized economies, Italy, Japan, China, USA, Spain and France all ranked in the “high risk” category.

“When economic losses are taken as absolute figures, it is predominantly the industrialised countries, such as USA and China, that shoulder the greatest costs,” explained Maplecroft Environmental Analyst, Dr Anna Moss.

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“However, when losses are calculated as a percentage of GDP, it is developing countries that are most exposed. For example, the USA’s losses from the 1997-1998 El Niño were US$ 1.

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96 billion, or 0.03 percent of GDP, whereas in Ecuador, economic losses were US$ 2.9 billion, or 14.6 percent of GDP.”

Maplecroft says that the magnitude 7.0 earthquake that struck Haiti in January cost the country close to $8 billion, or 73% of annual GDP. As for number two Mozambique, it’s the increasing amount of flooding over the last decade. The World Bank has reported that Mozambique is at “increasing risk from storm surges . . . due to climate change and estimates that 41% of the country’s coastal area and 52% of coastal GDP is vulnerable.”

Says Profesor Alyson Warhurst, CEO of Maplecroft:

“Climate change has the potential to raise global temperatures and affect weather patterns – the fear for insurers is that this will lead to more frequent and extreme hydro-meteorological related losses.”

If you add up the costs associated with the earthquakes in Haiti and Chile, plus this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, the cost of natural disasters to the insurance industry in 2010 could reach $110 billion worldwide, according to Swiss Re. A frightening figure to say the least.

Picture 4

Makeshift Shelters in Haiti No Match for Hurricanes

The official start to the Atlantic hurricane season is about a month and a half away and many researchers are already predicting above average activity this year.

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 Colorado State University’s Philip Klotzbach and William Gray have forecasted 15 named storms and eight hurricanes and meteorologists at AccuWeather.com are calling for 15 named storms and five hurricanes. A typical season sees 10 or 11 named storms.

While an uptick in hurricane and tropical storm activity is never a good thing, it is especially worrisome for residents of Haiti.

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Four months after January’s earthquake, some 1.

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5 million people remain homeless in the country. The folks over at Slate have posted a must-see slide show that demonstrates how many Haitians are trying to make do with makeshift tents made out of bedsheets, sticks and scrap metal that seem unlikely to stand up to a modest breeze, let along hurricane-force winds. It is a stark reminder of how far Haiti still has to go in its recovery and another reason to hope that the country can be spared from another tragedy this summer.

Haiti shelter

Photo via Slate.