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The Greatest Risks of the Greek Debt Crisis

The ongoing debt crisis in Greece continues to spur unrest, move markets and threaten the very fabric that connects the eurozone. Exactly how much effect a Greek default — and the domino effect in lending costs it would have throughout Europe — would have on the U.S. business world remains unclear.

But a good rundown from CNN Money offers a list of the three biggest risks Greek default presents for the United States: (1) U.S. bank exposure to sovereign debt, (2) a pullback in U.S. exports, and (3) U.S. business slow down.

To me, the last one seems the most threatening. Only now is the U.S. economy beginning to make any headway on replacing the jobs lost after the 2008 meltdown — and even this “recovery” remains mild, at best.

Here is how CNN breaks down that risk.

Many products sold by U.S. companies in Europe are made in Europe.

And losses there are already taking a bite out of U.S. multinational firms, from automakers General Motors and Ford Motor, to cereal maker Kellogg and smaller niche companies like watch and accessories maker Fossil, whose stock tumbled 40% in a single day after reporting weak European sales earlier this month.

If the value of the euro versus the dollar continues to drop, U.S. goods are going to become more expensive by comparison to those made by European rivals. And that could cut into U.S. business sales and exports around the globe if countries can get cheaper imports from Europe.

Furthermore, if export-driven economies like China see demand from Europe slow, it increases a risk of a so-called “hard landing” for the Chinese economy.

Given the importance of emerging market growth worldwide, a hard landing in China and other export markets poses a significant threat of creating a global recession, according to a report earlier this year from the World Bank.

And the with U.S. GDP of 2.2% in the most recent quarter, it is doubtful the United States can avoid a recession of its own if there is a true global slowdown.

There’s the “R” word resurfacing. For the United States—not just economies across the pond. In 2012, there is no greater risk facing American companies.

December Issue of Risk Management Now Online

Faithful readers: the December issue of Risk Management magazine is now online here. Following tradition, we devote the December issue to recapping the Year in Risk. From the Haiti earthquake to flooding in Pakistan to the Greek debt crisis to numerous legal settlements, we cover more than 50 risk management-related issues that occurred in 2010 while offering an in-depth look at the Gulf oil spill, the Toyota recall and the Chilean mine disaster.

Our columns explore topics such as the lack of progress in fighting malaria, legal lessons from the Great Fire of 1906 and the increase in accidents since bans on texting while driving. Also included are monthly staples such as our articles highlighting recent industry reports (Findings) and our book reviews (Shelf Life).

If you enjoy what you seen online, you can subscribe to the print edition to enjoy even more content.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below. And stay tuned to the blog for even more coverage in the future. Lastly, you can follow the magazine on Twitter“like” us on Facebook and join our LinkedIn group.