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Venice Sees Near-Record Flooding

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The city of Venice, Italy, faced the worst flooding of its famous canals since the devastating floods of 1966. Venice has suffered major economic impact from this new round of flooding, with Mayor Luigi Brugnaro predicting that the damage will cost hundreds of millions of Euros, and claiming climate change is to blame.

The recent flooding paralyzed many local businesses, forcing schools to close and disrupting the city’s bustling tourist industry. When the salt water of the canal rises, it can destroy centuries-old architecture and wipe out entire inventories.

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And since insurers have refused to provide flood coverage to Venetian businesses due to the ever-present flooding threat, costs can surge even more.

After the 1966 floods, the city began planning a sea barrier to combat the increasing flooding, called the Mose Project, but it has largely languished since then, reportedly due to corruption and delays. The barrier consists of gates that rise with the tide to prevent flooding at different inlets of the Venetian Lagoon, the bay surrounding Venice. The project has been formally underway since 2003 and has cost billions of Euros so far, with its engineers now predicting the barrier will be in place by the end of 2021, while others say 2022.

As the floods have gotten worse, Venetians have taken to the streets to protest the city’s mismanagement of flood prevention and response measures, as well as tourist cruise ships that produce waves they allege have eroded the city’s foundations. Venice has also seen a slow trickle of people leaving the city, as the constant flood risk has made life and business operation untenable for many. According to NBC News, of about 53,000 residents in the city’s center, Venice lost over 800 residents last year alone.

As with many recent extreme weather events around the world, some experts believe the floods may be the result of climate change. Environmental economist Shouro Dasgupta told NBC News that the frequency and severity of the city’s floods have increased significantly. “Since 1951 until today, we have had 21 severe flooding events,” he said.

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“Out of those 21, 13 have been since 2000 and, out of those 13, eight have been since 2012.”

The Venice city council reportedly rejected measures to combat climate change minutes before floodwaters actually reached the council chambers. Pictures of the flooded government chambers posted by city councilor Andrea Zanoni went viral—an ironic symbol of official inaction in the face of climate change’s effects. Zanoni told CNN that the council rejected measures to fund renewable energy, to make city buses (currently running on diesel) “more efficient and less polluting,” and to address the local use of polluting stoves and plastics.

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The council’s president, Roberto Ciambetti, refuted the assertion that the city’s government was ignoring climate change, citing budget provisions dedicated to fighting air pollution and smog.

Venice Flooding

Last week, the United Nation’s Environment Program released a report stating that countries must increase their carbon-cutting measures dramatically to prevent warming of 3.2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. The report noted that the many of the world’s 20 richest countries, which are responsible for 78% of global emissions, have not committed to reducing their emissions to zero. Italy is one of the few countries that have made this commitment, albeit as a long-term target.

National Flood Insurance Program Set to Expire

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As a tropical storm battered parts of Texas with more than 40 inches of rain in 72 hours last week, Congress is debating whether to extend the National Flood Insurance Program, which expires on September 30. The NFIP is a government-run flood insurance plan that covers 5 million policies and is an alternative to the relatively shallow private flood insurance market. Since the passage of the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968, Congress has often waited until the last minute to reauthorized the program before its expiration and passed only short-term extensions (12 since 2017).

Last week, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a continuing resolution to keep the federal government funded through November 21 and prevent a government shutdown. This measure included an extension for the NFIP through the same date. But it is unclear whether the Senate will pass the resolution or allow a shutdown.

The House of Representatives Financial Services Committee unanimously passed a bill titled the National Flood Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2019 (H.R. 3167), which would reauthorize the NFIP for five years and provide funding for flood mapping and flood mitigation programs. It would also mandate a number of reforms, including allowing policyholders to get refunds if they cancel their policy before its expiration date, eliminating penalties if insureds leave the NFIP for the private market, and requiring the NFIP to increase premium rates each year.

On the Senate side, there is a bill of the same name that would also extend the NFIP for five years. The bills would also cap annual rate increases at 9% (as opposed to the current law, which allows increases by up to 25% annually), making the program more affordable, especially for low-income policyholders. Additionally, it includes provisions to protect homebuyers and renters by mandating flood risk and prior flood damage disclosures, and also funds flood mapping modernization and mitigation. As of this writing, the Senate has not voted on the measure.

Climate change has exacerbated annual flooding across the United States, making storms more violent, frequent and costly. In its June report on the flood outlook for 2019, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration noted that non-storm, high-tide flooding “is increasingly common due to years of relative sea level increases. It no longer takes a storm or a hurricane to cause flooding in many coastal areas.” And in May, NASA said that the United States had experienced record-setting precipitation, characterizing it as the “soggiest 12 months in 124 years of modern record-keeping.”

They also mean millions more in property damage, which in turn means more people getting payouts from the NFIP. In fact, the series of hurricanes that hit the United States in 2017 and 2018 also hit the NFIP hard—the program lost billions of dollars in payouts, leading the government to pass a disaster relief bill that helped the NFIP pay the claims. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which runs the NFIP, aims to double the number of people who have flood insurance by 2023, but according to E&E News analysis, coverage in the United States has declined by 31% since 2011, leaving many without protection if they are hit with flooding.

In 2012, Congress passed a law allowing federal agencies to begin accepting private flood policies, but the market has been sluggish to fill the gaps. Some are stepping in—indeed, the American Association of Insurance Services (AAIS) today announced a partnership with Munich Reinsurance America, Inc. (Munch Re) to provide flood insurance aimed at homeowners outside major flood zones. But with few other private insurance companies offering flood policies, if the NFIP is not reauthorized, this could leave more than half-a-million people across the country without coverage.

Texas Study Shows Business Impact of Major Storms

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A new study conducted by Texas A&M University at Galveston and the Texas General Land Office examines the 50-year impact of a major storm hitting Galveston Bay on the Texas coast near Houston, including secondary effects to the economy. The study focused on catastrophic “500-year” flood events (with a one-in-500 chance of occurring in a year), which, while rare, have hit the state 3 times in recent years. This includes Hurricane Harvey, which struck Louisiana and Texas in August 2017, causing $125 billion in damage, according to the National Hurricane Center.

These larger storms have serious economic impacts locally, regionally and nationally. Over a 50-year time frame, the study notes, “the projected economic impact on Texas’ Gross State Product (GSP) of storm surge without coastal protection is substantial.” In the wake of a 500-year magnitude event, the regional petroleum and chemical manufacturing sectors would see their output decline by 19% (or $175.4 billion) in lost revenue, as well as a projected 17% loss of petroleum jobs (approximately 155,000 jobs) and a petroleum price increase of 13%. It would also impact the region’s housing, with the sector declining by 8%, or $39.5 billion lost in sales.

A 500-year surge event striking Galveston Bay would also have serious impacts for national economic activity, especially because the region processes 25% of the petroleum and more than half of the jet fuel used in the United States. According to the study, U.S. GDP could drop 1.1% (approximately $883 billion), U.S. exports would suffer a 4% drop (approximately $1.66 billion) and “30 states not including Texas will have lower GSP in response to a surge event in Texas.”

“The Galveston Bay region is one of the most flood- and surge-prone areas in the United States with vast amounts of vulnerable residential, commercial, industrial and petro-chemical areas at risk,” said Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush. “This study clearly demonstrates that, without any new protections in place, future storm surges could have substantial and lingering impacts on Texas’ economy and send lasting ripples through other economic sectors nationwide.”

Turning to mitigation, the authors of the report assessed the potential measure of a 17-foot “coastal spine,” also called a “coastal storm suppression system,” made up of “connecting seawalls and fortified dunes/levees along the coastline to retractable gates.” In October, the Army Corps of Engineers released the study Coastal Texas Protection and Restoration Feasibility Study proposing a similar example of this sort of structure—74 miles of barrier, including “floodwalls (inverted T-walls), floodgates (both highway and railroad floodgates), seawall improvements, drainage structures, pump stations, and surge barrier gates.”

The researchers estimate that a coastal spine would reduce the region’s lost petroleum and chemical manufacturing sector losses to 3% and 5%, respectively, a 1% reduction in regional unemployment, and a 1% increase in petroleum product prices. The report also claims that a coastal spine mitigation plan would reduce Houston-Galveston regional insurance premiums by as much as 28%. This could provide significant relief for insurers as well. Even though insurance and reinsurance only covered about 30% of the total wind and flood damage from Hurricane Harvey, this amounted to tens of millions in losses.

In terms of construction cost, the Texas researchers polled residents of three local counties and found that 56% “believed that both government and port industries should be responsible for financing the coastal barrier system,” and a majority agreed that some form of taxation should support its construction.

Implications of Flood Risk

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Across the vast geography of the United States, flood is no stranger to any of the states. From the March 2018 Nor’Easters that slammed the East Coast to the numerous storms and hurricanes that have swept across the country, both coastal and non-coastal regions are all at risk of flood.

FEMA reports that 98% of the U.S. counties have been impacted by a flooding event in the past, and 2016 and 2017 are examples of both the frequency and severity that the peril poses. According to Munich Re’s Geo Risks Research, there were more floods in the U.S. in 2016 than any year on record. Hurricane Harvey, the eighth named storm in the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, caused large flood losses and is reported as the second costliest hurricane in U.S. history after Hurricane Katrina. Major losses from Katrina were caused by flooding due to levee failure.

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was enacted by Congress with three main pillars: affordable insurance, floodplain management and flood mapping.  Since its inception, the program has helped thousands of home owners with total claims exceeding $65 billion. The NFIP’s role in aiding homeowners was evident during the weeks and months following Hurricane Harvey. According to FEMA, as of January 2018, more than 91,000 NFIP policyholders had filed claims for Hurricane Harvey, and FEMA has paid more than $7.6 billion in losses to those policyholders. the economic losses of Hurricane Harvey, however, are likely to reach $85 billion. Even after considering the commercial insured losses, the gap between the insured and economic losses, known as the “protection gap,” is huge.

Based on events like Hurricane Harvey and Superstorm Sandy it is likely that as many as 80% of the homes in Houston were not insured for flood. In fact, according to the Insurance Information Institute, only about 12% of the home owners in the United States purchase flood insurance; this statistic is even lower in inland states. The number of NFIP policies in the Mississippi River states (which excludes Louisiana) is about 5% of the total NFIP program. Using current building stock data from Homes.com, this would make the purchase rate for flood insurance in the Mississippi states at less than 2%.

Why is there such a large protection gap and why is it important to narrow this gap?

A Floodzonedata.us study by the New York University (NYU) Furman Center found that there are about 6.9 million housing units within the 100-year flood plain as defined by FEMA. According to a February 2018 scientific study in IOPscience, however, “Estimates of present and future flood risk in the conterminous United States,” the actual number of exposed houses could be as high as 15.4 million. In addition, a September 2017 audit by the Department of Homeland Security Office of Inspector General noted that, as of December 2016, only 42% of FEMA’s flood maps are up to date and valid. Both Superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Harvey demonstrated several instances of FEMA maps being inadequate to evaluate the extent of flooding.

Extreme events like Harvey should be viewed as an opportunity for resilience initiatives.  Jeffrey Heberg, Chief Resilience Officer for New Orleans, notes that the key to resilience is insurability. In fact, studies highlight the importance of high insurance penetration and the correlation to strong resilient countries.

The stark contrast in the insurance penetration between Chile, Haiti and New Zealand provides an example of the impact the insurance industry can have towards financing the losses from major catastrophes. Following earthquakes in 2010, New Zealand and Chile showed faster recovery due to high insurance penetration and thus the ability to absorb losses, whereas Haiti went through a very slow recovery process due to the lack of catastrophe (re)insurance.

While insurance is an important factor, financial resilience through insurance is not enough. There is a further need for a comprehensive approach to mitigate severe natural catastrophes. This is when public private partnerships (P3s) play a crucial role. In New Zealand, the government-owned earthquake commission, with reinsurance in the global market, resulted in insurance penetration of up to 80%. A similar example of P3 in the United States is the reinsurance protection sought by FEMA to reinsure the NFIP against extreme events.

Public private partnerships rely on the government’s ability to ensure adequate loss prevention, build physically resilient structures and implement forward-looking municipal planning (such as futuristic view of flood maps and flood plain management). If people reside in and build more resilient structures, not only can it help save lives, but the cost of insurance could be less, and the probability of loss and recovery time will be less for communities.

It is not only important to focus on building resilient communities to help protect them from natural catastrophes, it is now becoming a crucial requirement for cities and states.  Standard & Poor’s emphasizes the importance of disaster insurance arrangements on sovereign financial resilience. The September 2015 Standard & Poor’s Rating Report notes that a lack of insurance coverage for significant catastrophic events could negatively impact sovereign ratings resulting in a downgrade. As recent as November 2017, Moody’s reported the incorporation of climate change into its credit ratings for state and local bonds. This would mean that communities, cities and states may get downgraded unless they show sufficient adaptation and loss mitigation strategies.

The time for resilience is now. As geographic regions that were once sparsely populated are now filled with burgeoning cities there is so much more at risk from today’s extreme weather events. Insurance can play a role in helping communities recover. Insurance alone, however, is only a partial solution. We also need to build resilient communities to help mitigate the damage caused by flood.