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The Greatest Risks of the Greek Debt Crisis

The ongoing debt crisis in Greece continues to spur unrest, move markets and threaten the very fabric that connects the eurozone. Exactly how much effect a Greek default — and the domino effect in lending costs it would have throughout Europe — would have on the U.S. business world remains unclear.

But a good rundown from CNN Money offers a list of the three biggest risks Greek default presents for the United States: (1) U.S. bank exposure to sovereign debt, (2) a pullback in U.S. exports, and (3) U.S. business slow down.

To me, the last one seems the most threatening. Only now is the U.S. economy beginning to make any headway on replacing the jobs lost after the 2008 meltdown — and even this “recovery” remains mild, at best.

Here is how CNN breaks down that risk.

Many products sold by U.S. companies in Europe are made in Europe.

And losses there are already taking a bite out of U.S. multinational firms, from automakers General Motors and Ford Motor, to cereal maker Kellogg and smaller niche companies like watch and accessories maker Fossil, whose stock tumbled 40% in a single day after reporting weak European sales earlier this month.

If the value of the euro versus the dollar continues to drop, U.S. goods are going to become more expensive by comparison to those made by European rivals. And that could cut into U.S. business sales and exports around the globe if countries can get cheaper imports from Europe.

Furthermore, if export-driven economies like China see demand from Europe slow, it increases a risk of a so-called “hard landing” for the Chinese economy.

Given the importance of emerging market growth worldwide, a hard landing in China and other export markets poses a significant threat of creating a global recession, according to a report earlier this year from the World Bank.

And the with U.S. GDP of 2.2% in the most recent quarter, it is doubtful the United States can avoid a recession of its own if there is a true global slowdown.

There’s the “R” word resurfacing. For the United States—not just economies across the pond. In 2012, there is no greater risk facing American companies.

Dr. Doom: “With Italy Too Big to Fail, Too Big to Save … The Endgame for the Eurozone has Begun”

As the eurozone troubles continue to mount, there is a growing consensus that “muddling” through won’t be enough. Critics say that more immediate and drastic action must be taken, namely by Germany and France, before the negative watch warning for the ratings of France and the regional bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Fund, potentially becomes something that matters.

One man, however, doesn’t think the disparate governments that can make a difference will.

And it’s a guy who knows a little about forecasted meltdowns.

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According to the New York Times, in 2006, Nouriel Roubini, an NYU economist who has been nicknamed Dr. Doom, “laid out a bleak sequence of events: homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt. These developments, he went on, could cripple or destroy hedge funds, investment banks and other major financial institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”

As the tale goes, the IMF audience he spoke to were skeptical to say the least. Some likely thought he was a funny little man.

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Others thought he was nuts.

Unfortunately, he was correct.

Now, he is predicting a major European recession, one large enough to spread worldwide.

Roubini predicts Europe’s leaders “will reach something of a compromise, but it won’t be sufficient” to solve the problem of too much government debt.

They will agree that “fiscal austerity and reforms will be necessary,” but those changes will only depress growth, leading to lower tax revenues and a deepening debt crisis. Eventually, investors in European bonds “will see they are insolvent,” he said.

“With Italy too big to fail, too big to save, and now at the point of no return, the endgame for the eurozone has begun,” Roubini said in a recent written assessment.

Hopefully, Doom won’t strike twice.

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