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Napa Quake Economic Loss Estimates at $1 Billion

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A state of emergency was declared in California yesterday by Gov.

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Edmund G. Brown due to the effects of a 6.1 magnitude earthquake that rocked the Napa Valley area in northern California. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that economic losses from the quake could top $1 billion and said there is a 54% likelihood of another large quake, magnitude 5 or higher, within the next week.

As of 4:15 p.m. Sunday, six aftershocks had been reported, four centered near Napa, ranging 2.5 to 3.6 magnitude. Two others, a 2.8 and a 2.6 were reported near American Canyon, according to the USGS.

The Napa quake is the largest in the Bay Area since the 1989 Loma Prieta quake, which was magnitude 6.9. That quake resulted in $1.8 billion in insured claims (in 2013 dollars) being paid to policyholders, said Robert Hartwig, Ph.D., president of the Insurance Information Institute.

In the Napa region, widespread damage has been reported to infrastructure, including roads and utilities and public buildings such as the Napa Post Office, the county’s administration building and numerous homes. The City of Napa reported that as of Sunday afternoon 120 patients had been treated or are being treated. Three patients—two adults and one child—suffered critical injuries, Gov.

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Brown’s office reported., adding that power outages also occurred, affecting 69,000 people across the region.

The costliest earthquake in United States history, was the Northridge Quake, with insured losses totaling $24.1 billion (in 2013 dollars). The U.S. has about 20,000 earthquakes annually, mostly small, and 42 states are at risk of quakes, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Despite the known high potential for earthquakes and resulting damages in the state, however, only about 12% of California homeowners purchase earthquake coverage, the I.I.I. said.

Of concern are business interruption (BI) losses, as the Napa region is a popular tourist destination. Many businesses that attract visitors, including wineries and restaurants, have sustained damage, both non-structural and structural, according to EQECAT.

According to the I.I.I.:

Earthquakes in the United States are not covered under standard homeowners or business insurance policies. Coverage is usually available for earthquake damage in the form of an endorsement to a home or business insurance policy. However, insurers that don’t sell earthquake insurance may still be impacted by these catastrophes due to losses from fire following a quake.

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These losses could involve claims for business interruption and additional living expenses as well. Cars and other vehicles are covered for earthquake damage under the comprehensive part of the auto insurance policy.

Initial Estimates of Claims from Japan Quake

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Though it is far too early to pin down an exact number for the amount of money the Japan quake will cost insurers, initial estimates have started to surface for some of the hardest hit insurers and reinsurers.

Swiss Re, the world’s second-biggest reinsurer, has estimated it will face claims of about $1.2 billion from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

The figure is low because Japan’s government insures residential properties covered by non-life companies against earthquake and tsunami damage and this protection is not reinsured internationally, the Zurich-based company said in an e-mailed statement today. The preliminary claims figure is net of retrocession and before tax, Swiss Re said.

Eqecat, a catastrophe modeling firm, has stated that insurers and reinsurers will likely have losses of $12 billion to $25 billion. However, AIR Wolrdwide has estimated losses of up to $35 billion from the quake alone.

AIG has recently reported that it will record $1 billion in claims for the first quarter, most of which can be attributed to the Japan earthquake and tsunami.

Zurich-based ACE Ltd., a major player in the insurance and reinsurance market, said its initial loss estimates are $200 million to $250 million.

Though Lloyd’s of London has not officially released an estimate, an anonymous market source has said “$3 billion in losses for the Lloyd’s market as a whole sounds plausible.”

QBE Insurance Group Ltd. of Australia has said it estimates $125 million in claims from the quake and tsunami.

Below is a video of the always-entertaining Joe Plumeri speaking on the topic of Japan’s insured losses.

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Easter Quake Damage “Will Not Exceed $1B”

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As you all know by now, a 7.2 magnitude earthquake struck along the Mexican/California border yesterday, severely damaging some structures in Mexico but causing only minor disruptions — and a big scare — for those in Southern California, despite being the biggest shock to hit the area in two decades. According to risk modeling company EQECAT, most of the economic damage occurred in Mexico (Mexicali, specifically) and overall losses will not exceed $1 billion, with insured losses totaling $300 million.

Reports EQECAT:

Although damage will have occurred in both Mexico and the US, the community of Mexicali is the largest urban area affected by this event, and damage there is expected to be widespread. The largest US city affected by the earthquake is El Centro, California, although significantly less damage is expected there than in Mexicali, due both to lower-intensity ground shaking and less-vulnerable structures.

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Structures with greater earthquake resistance may have experienced slight to moderate damage. The intensity of shaking that occurred in El Centro and other US locations is below the threshold typically associated with structural damage.

This earthquake ruptured on the Laguna Salada fault, whose last major earthquake occurred in 1892, to the northwest of yesterday’s rupture.

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Another historic earthquake that affected the region was the 1940 Imperial Valley (US) earthquake (M6.9), which caused strong shaking in the US cities of El Centro and Brawley. Buildings damaged in 1940 will have been repaired or replaced, and highly-vulnerable buildings were not reconstructed in the El Centro region.

However, border cities such as Mexicali had not experienced shaking as severe as from yesterday’s quake for nearly 100 years. Consequently, many buildings in Mexicali will have been at risk to major damage, particularly older commercial and residential structures, and particularly those built of unreinforced masonry.

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Unreinforced masonry buildings have consistently demonstrated vulnerability to damage from earthquakes.

Let’s hope any after shocks do minimal harm.

ABC also offers the following video report.