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A Trump Presidency Poses Top Risk to Global Economy

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, a Donald Trump presidency poses one of the greatest current global risks. Indeed, Trump ranks as the sixth overall potential risk to the global economy, and based on a 25-point scale, the research firm rated the risk approximately equal to the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilizing the global economy.

The EIU, research and analysis sister company to the Economist, ranks risks based on both impact and probability, with a Trump presidency presenting considerable potential impact, but moderate probability. The EIU’s assessment focused in particular on Trump’s hostility toward free trade (most notably NAFTA), aggressive rhetoric on China, and “exceptionally right-wing stance” on the Middle East and jihadi terrorism.

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“In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war—and at the least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the US and 11 other American and Asian states signed in February 2016,” EIU analysts wrote. “His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the U.S.) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond.”

The firm concluded with a prediction that, while it believes Trump will most likely lose to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, that probability could change in the event of a terrorist attack on U.S. soil or a sudden economic downturn.

In such a scenario, the trickle-down effect within the American political machine poses noteworthy risk as well.

“Innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr. Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress,” the report says.

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But “such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking.”

The firm’s overall top 10 risks by point ranking are:

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Thoughts on CEI’s Stance on Catastrophe Funding

In the most recent issue of Business Insurance, Competitive Enterprise Institute senior fellow Eli Lehrer offers his thoughts on why exactly a federal natural catastrophe backstop would be a very, very bad idea. The CEI has been carpet bombing trade and mainstream media outlets in a nonstop campaign to tell anybody who will listen that the only thing worse than a hurricane wiping out coastal property is for the federal government to pick up the tab for it.

While Lehrer’s BI interview is well-reasoned and even worded, not all of the CEI’s efforts in the arena have been. Earlier this year, the CEI launched NoBeachHouseBailouts.org, which appears to promote itself on the specious notion that a national catastrophe defense fund, such as the one outlined in the Homeowner’s Defense Act of 2008, would primarily benefit the likes of super-rich celebrities seeking government bailout funds for their beach-front mansions. It’s the kind of cynical sloganeering we’d expect in a nasty political campaign (Lehrer himself was a speechwriter for Bill Frist, R-TN), especially since it goes for a gut reaction instead of considering the facts.

When we study poverty rates along all coastal counties subject to Atlantic hurricanes (figures provided by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Data Service, 2007) we find that 10 of the 19 states with coastal risk exposures to Atlantic hurricanes have higher poverty rates on the coast than the statewide average. And across all coastal states subject to hurricanes, the average county poverty rate in 2007 is 12.4%, only 0.6% below the national rate.

More to the point, if we look at regional data, an even more interesting picture emerges. Coastal poverty rates are lower than the national average almost across the board in states from Virginia through Maine — those northeastern states that have a much milder hurricane history than their more southern counterparts.

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Coastal poverty rates from North Carolina through Texas — the states where hurricanes make landfall most frequently — were almost entirely above state averages. And this, in states where the statewide averages themselves were universally several points higher than the national poverty average.

Bottom line: a national catastrophe defense fund is meant to provide for those who cannot afford to rebound from a hurricane strike with the means to do so.

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The states that would benefit from this the most are poorer southern states that already have higher-than-average rates of poverty compared to the rest of the nation, and whose coasts are even more poverty-stricken. To suggest that a national catastrophe defense fund would primarily bailout celebrities such as Donald Trump, Tiger Woods and John Travolta, as the CEI does, displays a certain ignorance of the wider economic reality of coastal risk.

It is tempting indeed to suggest that if people do not wish to deal with coastal risk, they should simply move away from the coast. However, such wishful thinking flies in the face of global human behavior, which is showing more movement toward coastal areas than at any other time in the history of our species.

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Coastal risk cannot be dismissed with a wave of the hand, nor is it primarily borne by those with more than enough personal resources to cope with the risks.

If the CEI is so bothered by the thought of millionaires benefiting from a catastrophe defense fund, then a more reasoned approach would be to lobby for a condition exempting homeowners with single property values over a certain amount, on the basis that such property owners already have enough to afford proper levels of insurance, or can finance their risk independently, rather than argue to deny our nation’s coastal poor the benefit of government relief when the next major hurricane strikes them.