Tag Archives: Disaster Planning

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The 2023 Hurricane Season Outlook

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Atlantic hurricane season officially began recently, kicking off a disaster season that will run from June 1 through November 30. According to predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 2023 hurricane season will consist of 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and one to four major hurricanes. This falls into a fairly average range, but “average” is a bit unusual under the conditions currently emerging around the season.

“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors—some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it—driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season,” NOAA reported.

Hurricane researchers at Colorado State University notably marked the opening of the season with a revised forecast. After initially predicting slightly below-average hurricane activity in 2023, the researchers increased their estimates. Now, CSU is essentially predicting an average hurricane season, but one that is above-average for what is expected to be an El Niño year.

The last three hurricane seasons have been controlled by La Niña, which typically leads to more hurricane activity. While El Niño would typically help reduce such activity, current warmer water temperatures could ultimately cancel out most of that effect.

“While we anticipate a robust El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropical and subtropical Atlantic have continued to anomalously warm to near-record levels,” CSU researchers explained. “El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, but the anomalous warmth in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven increase in vertical wind shear.”

CSU anticipates 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, which is right in line with the NOAA forecasts. However, CSU forecasters noted that this year’s outlook includes particular uncertainty due to these conflicting factors.

As the hurricane season gets underway, the following tips can help businesses update and strengthen natural disaster recovery plans:

Review your business interruption insurance. Business interruption insurance coverage plays a critical role in helping ensure complete recovery from a storm. BI coverage relies on accurately reported business values, however, and recent changes in property values, replacement and repair costs, and inflation all impact those current values. To avoid the risk of being severely underinsured, make sure your coverage has up-to-date valuations so that claims payouts will be robust enough to rebuild your business. Check out the May/June issue of Risk Management for more information about the importance of accurate business interruption values and best practices for preparing a business interruption claim. 

Update your current disaster recovery plan. It is crucial to keep your natural disaster recovery plan updated. Organizations have gone through massive change over the past few years, including different work locations due to hybrid or remote work, staffing changes, and new technology that may aid in emergency response. Ensure your organization’s disaster recovery plan reflects your current personnel, equipment, insurance policies and contacts, and make sure to distribute it among all current members of any emergency response teams or other key stakeholders.

Do a dry run. The only real way to know if your disaster recovery plan works is to put it to use, and you do not want to wait until a natural disaster is at hand to find out if it works. Practice various scenarios and have key players act out their roles to gauge the effectiveness of the plan and make changes accordingly.

Take preventative measures. To weather disaster response well, disaster preparation is essential. Take steps now to ensure the organization will be able to operate as smoothly as possible during or in the immediate wake of a disaster. Back up data offsite or in the cloud, verify that multiple employees know how to handle certain tasks and ensure you have backup options to contact employees if primary communication channels are interrupted.

For more information on hurricane preparation and natural disaster recovery, check out these other pieces from Risk Management:

Recovery Tips in the Wake of Hurricane Ian and Hurricane Fiona

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Across the Caribbean, Florida, and up the Eastern seaboard to Atlantic Canada, communities are facing devastation from a recent—and ongoing—spate of mid-season hurricanes.

Ian follows right on the heels of catastrophic damage from Hurricane Fiona. In the Caribbean, 20% of residents in Puerto Rico are still without power after Hurricane Fiona, and the island took another pummeling from Hurricane Ian while it was a Category 4 storm. To the north, post-tropical storm Fiona inflicted catastrophic damage across parts of eastern Canada last week, causing devastating property damage and leaving hundreds of thousands of Canadians without power. While it is too early for complete estimates, ratings agency DBRS Morningstar projected the insured losses may fall in the range of $300 million to $700 million. According to Patrick Douville, DBRS’s vice president of insurance, “Fiona will likely be one of the largest catastrophic events in history for Atlantic Canada.”

Once it is safe to do so, risk managers will have considerable work to do to help their organizations and communities recover.

Dalton advised, “Additional steps businesses should take include engaging a professional claims preparation firm to help document the claim, preparing a daily timeline of impact and changes to operational activities, asking for a cash advance, and setting up a cost tracking code and/or general ledger account to capture incident-related expenses. If it’s a contingent loss, meaning operations are down because of physical damage to a customer or supplier, ask that customer or supplier send you documentation of their physical damage and ask them to communicate with you as much as possible.”

In the July/August cover story from Risk Management Magazine, “Hurricane Claims: Key Tips to Minimize Losses and Maximize Recovery,”attorneys Andrea DeField and Alice Weeks offered guidance on steps for risk and insurance professionals to take before, during and after hurricanes, including hurricane preparation and response checklists.

For organizations impacted by this season’s storms, the following post-storm tips can help risk professionals navigate disaster recovery and the claims management process:

Post-Storm Checklist

  1. Gather insurance policies and related insurance records. If your policy was destroyed or is lost, contact your insurance company or agent/broker to request a copy.
  2. Contact other business partners who may have copies of your insurance policies and records, such as attorneys and accountants.
  3. Give written notice to your broker and insurer immediately. Notice should provide the following basic information:
    1. Name and address of insured
    1. Location of loss
    1. Date and time of loss
    1. Contact name, phone and fax number
    1. Brief description of the loss
  4. Acquire copies of police or fire reports from your local police or fire department, if applicable. If individuals caused damage to the premises or stole anything in the wake of the disaster, obtain a separate police report about the damage or losses or request that additional information be added to the initial report.
  5. Secure vital records and ledgers. Ensure that your accounting department opens a separate general ledger for hurricane-related expenses.
  6. Collect photos or videos as proof of damage. Ensure these are taken before any mitigations are implemented so that they accurately capture the aftermath and losses.
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  7. To the extent possible, take steps to mitigate any further damage once the storm has passed.
  8. If you have not already, retain a forensic accountant to begin preparing your business income and extra expense loss calculations.
  9. Prepare a proof of loss. A proof of loss provides details identifying the property destroyed or damaged, and documents the amount of loss incurred. Generally, any information substantiating the claim can become part of your proof of claim, including photos, videos, receipts and records. Check with your insurer for the specific information required as some companies may ask for a detailed list of documents or require you to fill out a specific proof of loss form.
  10. Submit proof of loss, photos, and reports to your insurer. Be sure to check any time limitations on the submission of a proof of loss and request an extension, if needed.
  11. Assist with the insurance company’s investigation. Property policies typically allow the insurer to conduct a reasonable investigation of the claim and require the insured’s cooperation. This may be in a provision titled “Duties in the Event of Loss” that allows the insurer to interview the policyholder claimants in a process called an “examination under oath.” The policy may also require the insured to exhibit the property, take reasonable steps to protect it, and generally cooperate with the insurer’s investigation. The insurer’s requests for information must typically be considered reasonable, however. A policyholder’s failure to reasonably cooperate could be used by the insurer as a defense to coverage.

8 Steps to Create Strong Disaster Management Plans

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A core responsibility of any risk professional is planning for any possible disasters your business might face. These could be man-made, such as a data breach or accidents involving machinery, or natural, like a tornado or flood.

Disasters and crises affect different organizations in different ways—one company might consider something a catastrophe, while another may not even notice a change in its workflow. It is important to look at your own business operations and evaluate what you would consider a crisis. Generally, business crises fall into one of three categories:

  1. A danger to the physical safety of employees or customers
  2. Loss of income or means of making income
  3. Events or people negatively affecting your business reputation

In many cases, the crisis may fall into more than one of these categories. An accident in the workplace that is hazardous to employees can impact the company’s income because the factory has to shut down. This can also negatively affect the company’s reputation if it turns out that the company did not provide a safe working environment.

With even the best risk management programs, no organization can avoid all disasters completely. Risk mitigation often comes down to crafting the best plans possible for the moment disaster inevitably strikes. These eight steps can help risk professionals develop strong crisis and disaster response plans:

1. Define The Types of Crises You Could Face: There is not a one-size-fits-all approach to a crisis management plan. Working out what is likely to affect your business specifically can relate to your geography—areas that get hit by severe storms or earthquakes must include those potential disasters, and what knock-on effects they may cause. For example, storms may cause flooding, loss of power, or blocked roads that make it difficult to reach your premises. The type of crisis can also be specific to your industry. Employees in a manufacturing facility are likely at greater risk in a physical disaster than those working in a tax consultancy, for example. Security should also be a consideration. Is your business likely to get robbed of cash or equipment? Do you have high-profile proprietary information that makes you more likely to be the victims of cybercrime?

2. Triggering the Plan: Including levels of urgency in your plan will help people responding to the crisis pinpoint how significant the event is, and how much of the plan must be put into action. A step-by-step approach for specific scenarios can be helpful and cover dealing with man-made and natural disasters in different ways. The risk for each will be unique to the situation and knowing when and how to trigger a response is key. The plan should include how and when to escalate the response should the crisis worsen, as well as how to identify when the crisis has passed. It can be helpful to use red, yellow and green system to indicate severity and urgency, and this classification approach is easy to adapt to any scenario.

3. The Base of Operations Location: Accidents or natural disasters may cause your usual place of business to close temporarily or permanently. In your plan, designate a backup command center in an alternate location for dealing with the crisis until you can get back to work. This location can be your company’s operations hub, a point for gathering after a crisis, or where you know your sensitive and important data backs up. If a natural disaster has made travel dangerous or roads impossible to navigate, you will also need a virtual base of operations—some possibilities include message boards, chat apps or email. With so many employees working remotely because of COVID-19, this may be easier to implement now.

4. The Chain of Command: Ensuring a clear chain of command so that there is no arguing or confusion when people and the business are at risk. Wherever possible, appoint a back-up for each person in charge so if someone cannot perform their duty, it falls to the next in line.

5. Internal and External Communication: When a crisis compromises an office or business, communication can become tricky. Have a clear set of rules for how you get information to and from your employees, what information you must and must not share with those outside of the company, and how to achieve that. This part of your crisis management plan can save lives and stop rumors from spreading.

6. Necessary Resources: Though this will depend on the nature of the business, consider first aid and safety equipment if you are likely to have injuries or get cut off because of poor weather. Also, think about alternate communication methods if mobile phone towers go down or the electricity gets cut, as well as access to your sensitive data, such as employee contracts and supplier agreements.Include all necessary resources you would need to operate and highlight any alternate replacements. For example, if a storm knocks out your power, you may have a generator.

7. Training: It is no good putting a crisis management plan together and not giving the relevant people the training they need to execute it. For example, the people you name as first aid providers or unit leaders need to know what is expected of them and undergo the necessary training. If you have safety equipment on your premises, like fire extinguishers or emergency release valves for machinery, you need to educate all stakeholders how these work.

8. Testing the Plan: Finally, test that your plan actually works. Review it with staff and conduct safety drills regularly—every two months at least. Look for any weak points or flaws in the plan before an actual crisis.While it may not be possible to anticipate everything a disaster brings, you can set up several response plans and test each one individually. These plans can tie in with your standard safety drills, or stand alone, depending on the nature of the event anticipated.

A crisis management plan is integral to every business, no matter its size, scope, or sector. By preparing for various potential disasters, you can take action when needed without putting your organization, employees, or yourself at unnecessary risk. 

Global Heat Waves Signal Climate Risks

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India is currently suffering under a heat wave that has lasted over a month, with temperatures reaching a record 118 degrees Fahrenheit (48 degrees Celsius) in New Delhi on June 10 and 122 degrees (50 degrees Celsius) in the western city of Churu. The death toll has been estimated to be at least 36, though some sources put the number at more than 150. Europe is also preparing for its own massive heat wave this week, with temperatures expected to be 36 degrees Fahrenheit (20 degrees Celsius) higher than the seasonal average of 72 degrees (22 degrees Celsius).

This pattern of heat waves has become a yearly occurrence across the globe. Europe faced similar heat last year, as did Asia, with Japan experiencing record-breaking temperatures in 2018, which sent more than 71,000 to hospitals, killing 138. North America also saw extended higher temperatures in 2018, with 41 heat records across the United States, and heat-related deaths overwhelming Montreal’s city morgue.

Experts say that these global record-breaking incidents are the result of climate change, and likely forecast a new normal of dangerous summer heat.

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According to Stefan Rahmstorf, co-chair of Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research (PIK), “Monthly heat records all over the globe occur five times as often today as they would in a stable climate. This increase in heat extremes is just as predicted by climate science as a consequence of global warming caused by the increasing greenhouse gases from burning coal, oil and gas.

” French national meteorological service Météo-France echoed these concerns, saying that heat waves’ frequency “is expected to double by 2050.” And according to a 2017 study from The Lancet Planetary Health journal, the number of deaths resulting from weather-related disasters could skyrocket in the future, killing as many as 152,000 people each year between 2071 and 2100, more than 50 times greater than the average annual deaths from 1980 to 2010.

As Risk Management has previously reported, these changes are also already impacting business operations globally, with direct economic losses from climate-related disasters (including heat waves) increased 151% from 1998 to 2017, according to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. Heat waves have serious effects on business operations, impacting things like road conditions and agriculture, as well as workers’ health and safety. More than 15 million U.S. workers have jobs requiring time outdoors, and according to the World Bank, even for indoor workers, productivity declines by 2% per degree Celsius above room temperature.

Many countries have taken steps to mitigate the effects of heat waves on their populations. For example, since 2016, India has been providing shelter for homeless people, opening water stations for hydration, cutting building heat absorption by painting roofs white and imposing working hour changes, curfews and restrictions on outdoor activities. These efforts have successfully reduced heat-related deaths from more than 2,400 in 2015 to 250 in 2017.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommends similar steps to the ones India is taking, as well as ensuring that energy and water systems are properly functioning, establishing hotlines for reporting cases of high-risk individuals and encouraging energy conservation to reduce the chances of overwhelming electric systems. The U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) recommends that employers and workers facing higher temperatures in the workplace pay close attention for the signs of heat stroke, and keep three words in mind: water, rest and shade.

While these on-the-ground measures can reduce the immediate effects on workers and vulnerable populations like the elderly, children and the homeless, PIK’s Rahmstorf warns that “Only rapidly reducing fossil fuel use and hence CO2 emissions can prevent a disastrous further increase of weather extremes linked to global heating.”