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Q&A on the “Global Risks 2010” Report

Recently, the World Economic Forum released its “Global Risks 2010” report, in which partners, including Swiss Re and other corporate and academic entities, collaborated to analyze the most serious global risks for the current year. This was the one of several posts we have run recently about the biggest risks ahead for 2010, whether economic, political or otherwise. One thing that we see through all of them is the word “China.” It will be interesting to keep an eye on this prediction and whether the country will hinder or help the U.S. in 2010.

To discuss this and the rest of the year ahead, I was fortunate enough to touch base with Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist at Swiss Re, to get his take on this year’s report.

In your opinion, what is the biggest global risk facing the U.S. for 2010 and why?

Kurt Karl: The biggest global risk facing the U.S., as the “Global Risk 2010” report points out, is renewed asset price collapse. This would essentially be a global double-dip recession. With very high deficits and very low interest rates, another recession would be very difficult to combat. A return to recession could come from continued employment declines eroding consumer confidence, another banking sector scare or possibly a mutation in the pandemic virus which increases the fatalities causing consumers to panic and stop traveling and reduce shopping.

How will underinvestment in infrastructure (especially agriculture) affect the U.S. economy in the long run?

Karl: Infrastructure is essential for long-term growth and there is some evidence that the U.S. has been under-investing in infrastructure. Not only could this lead to catastrophes, such as the Minneapolis bridge collapse, but it would reduce economic growth by creating bottlenecks in, for example, the transportation system. The key risk for the agricultural sector is infrastructure that supports water supplies. This is partly an investment issue and increasingly a political issue. Reduced agricultural production will harm the US trade deficit — we export a lot of agricultural products — increase inflation and reduce standards of living.

What is the biggest, long-term international risk you see? And how will that affect the U.S.?

Karl: China, which is growing rapidly, is the biggest risk and the biggest opportunity for the U.S. economy. The global economy is increasingly dependent upon the health of the Chinese economy. At the same time, China needs to become a more open economy, with — ultimately — a floating exchange rate and free trade practices where it and other countries are competing on a level playing field.

What do you see as the biggest factor that could possibly prevent a complete economic recovery?

Karl: The biggest risk is global employment growth. If confidence turns sufficiently negative, companies will start cutting jobs again and that would kill the recovery.

The biggest global risk facing the US, as the Global Risk 2010 report points out, is renewed asset price collapse. This would essentially be a global double-dip recession. With very high deficits and very low interest rates, another recession would be very difficult to combat. A return to recession could come from continued employment declines eroding consumer confidence, another banking sector scare or possibly a mutation in the pandemic virus which increases the fatalities causing consumers to panic and stop traveling and reduce shopping.
2.  How will underinvestment in infrastructure (especially agriculture) affect the US economy in the long run?
Infrastructure is essential for long-term growth and there is some evidence that the US has been under-investing in infrastructure. Not only could this lead to catastrophes, such as the Minneapolis bridge collapse, but it would reduce economic growth by creating bottlenecks in, for example, the transportation system. The key risk for the agricultural sector is infrastructure that supports water supplies. This is partly an investment issue and increasingly a political issue. Reduced agricultural production will harm the US trade deficit — we export a lot of agricultural products — increase inflation and reduce standards of living.
3.  What is the biggest, long-term international risk you see? And how will that affect the US?
China, which is growing rapidly, is the biggest risk and the biggest opportunity for the US economy. The global economy is increasingly dependent upon the health of the Chinese economy. At the same time, China needs to become a more open economy, with — ultimately — a floating exchange rate and free trade practices where it and other countries competing on a level playing field.
4.  What do you see as the biggest factor that could possibly prevent a complete economic recovery?
The biggest risk is global employment growth. If confidence turns sufficiently negative, companies will start cutting jobs again and that would kill the recovery.1. In your opinion, what is the biggest global risk facing the U.S. for 2010 and why?
The biggest global risk facing the US, as the Global Risk 2010 report points out, is renewed asset price collapse. This would essentially be a global double-dip recession. With very high deficits and very low interest rates, another recession would be very difficult to combat. A return to recession could come from continued employment declines eroding consumer confidence, another banking sector scare or possibly a mutation in the pandemic virus which increases the fatalities causing consumers to panic and stop traveling and reduce shopping.
2.  How will underinvestment in infrastructure (especially agriculture) affect the US economy in the long run?
Infrastructure is essential for long-term growth and there is some evidence that the US has been under-investing in infrastructure. Not only could this lead to catastrophes, such as the Minneapolis bridge collapse, but it would reduce economic growth by creating bottlenecks in, for example, the transportation system. The key risk for the agricultural sector is infrastructure that supports water supplies. This is partly an investment issue and increasingly a political issue. Reduced agricultural production will harm the US trade deficit — we export a lot of agricultural products — increase inflation and reduce standards of living.
3.  What is the biggest, long-term international risk you see? And how will that affect the US?
China, which is growing rapidly, is the biggest risk and the biggest opportunity for the US economy. The global economy is increasingly dependent upon the health of the Chinese economy. At the same time, China needs to become a more open economy, with — ultimately — a floating exchange rate and free trade practices where it and other countries competing on a level playing field.
4.  What do you see as the biggest factor that could possibly prevent a complete economic recovery?
The biggest risk is global employment growth. If confidence turns sufficiently negative, companies will start cutting jobs again and that would kill the recovery.

Leaders to Watch

On the heels of their “Top Risks for 2010” report, the Eurasia Group released its “2010 Leaders to Watch” list, highlighting the world leaders that are expected to make the biggest impact on the world this year. Not surprisingly, considering that U.S./China relations claimed the top spot in the “Top Risks” report, number one and number two on the leaders list are Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and U.S. President Barack Obama. The top five leaders are discussed below:

  1. Wen Jiabao, China – “Having guided China through the worst of the economic crisis, Premier Wen Jiabao, the head of China’s sprawling state bureaucracies, now faces the equally difficult task of shifting Chinese policy from stimulating the economy to containing inflation and preventing asset bubbles.”
  2. Barack Obama, United States – “This year may define the presidency of Barack Obama. He enters 2010 with diminished approval ratings, high unemployment, a massive deficit and poor prospects for the Democratic Party in mid-term elections in November.
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    On issues of critical importance to his agenda, he has ceded considerable responsibility to Congress to determine timelines and details—which the legislature will be reluctant to give back.

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  3. Ichiro Ozawa, Japan – “If he survives the scandal that threatens to engulf him, Ichiro Ozawa has the opportunity to maneuver the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) to victory in upper-house elections in July, giving it firm control over the government. Ozawa holds no cabinet position, but he is the most powerful politician in the DPJ, controlling its finances, electoral strategy, and the candidate-selection process as its secretary-general.”
  4. David Cameron, United Kingdom – “If, as expected, the Conservative (Tory) Party wins national parliamentary elections in May, its leader David Cameron will take over as prime minister of a troubled country. The UK is still struggling to overcome a recession, a real estate bubble, and a serious crisis in its all-important financial sector.”
  5. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil – “As President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva begins his final year in office, he looks set to go out with a bang. Brazil is quickly recovering from the global economic downturn; Lula and his relatively market-friendly economic policies are closely associated with Brazil’s economic success. Internationally, he will utilize this appeal to pursue a larger role for Brazil in developing multilateral policies—in forums like the G20 and at climate change negotiations.
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Rounding out the rest of the top 10 are: Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran; Ashfaq Kayani, Pakistan; Vladimir Putin, Russia; Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al Nahyan, United Arab Emirates; and Olli Rehn, European Union.

Billion-dollar Suit Against Chinese Gov, PC Makers

In what could be seen as a test case for U.S. companies, a small California-based software firm has filed a $2.2 billion copyright infringment suit against the People’s Republic of China, two Chinese software makers and seven major computer manufacturers.

The plaintiff in this groundbreaking case is Solid Oak Software, a family-owned firm in Santa Barbara. They make, among other things, software called CYBERsitter, which prevents children from viewing pornographic or violent content on the internet. Solid Oak claims that Chinese software makers and computer manufacturers stole 3,000 lines of code from their CYBERsitter program to create Green Dam Youth Escort software, which works similar to CYBERsitter in that it prevents users from viewing certain web pages. After Green Dam was created, the Chinese government mandated that all manufacturers bundle the software into any computer sold in China after July 1, 2009. This was the government’s way of restricting the public, young and old, from viewing various political and religious web sites.

The suit names the following defendants:

  • Sony
  • Toshiba
  • Lenovo Group
  • Acer
  • ASUSTeK Computer
  • BenQ Corp.
  • Haier Group
  • Zhengzhou Jinhui Computer System Engineering
  • Beijing Dazheng Human Language Technology Academy
  • The People’s Republic of China

Though the mandate involving Green Dam software’s installation on all new computers was lifted after the Obama administration warned China that the requirement could violate free-trade agreements, 56.5 million copies had been distributed by June 2009 alone. And with a $39.95 price on each CYBERsitter product, it seems that whether they win or lose the case, Solid Oak is losing out on profits. But we should also remember that win or lose, this case has the potential to pave the way for future copyright infringement cases of this nature.

Top 10 Risks for 2010

shutterstock_U.S.-china

Well, according to Eurasia Group, the number one risk for 2010 is U.S.-China relations.

In their annual “Top Risks” report, the firm’s president, Ian Bremmer, and head of research, David Gordon, announced their top risks today, which states that “2010 is likely to be much more turbulent geopolitically than 2009, when the world was preoccupied with coping with the global financial crisis, but saw no big geopolitical crisis.”

  1. U.S.-China relations — The firm sees the relationship between these two powerhouses deteriorating significantly due to China’s reluctance to take more of a leadership role, as was seen during the Copenhagen climate conference. Other issues affecting the relationship include Beijing’s economic partnership with the U.
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    S., the resulting higher tariffs on Chinese exports, differences in cap and trade beliefs and issues involving cyber-security, among others.

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  2. Iran — Eurasia Group points to Iran as the biggest “purely geopolitical risk in 2010.” The report focuses on the country’s struggling government, its nuclear program and its reaction to ensuing sanctions. “The Iranian regime looks increasingly like a cornered, wounded animal,” the report states. “In 2010, it’s likely to act like one.
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  3. European fiscal divergence — It seems the fiscal challenges in Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy have created a massive area of financial risk in Europe. Eastern Europe faces escalating risks as well, especially if European Central Bank liquidity measures are curtailed.
  4. U.S. financial regulation — Eurasia Group feels 2010 will prove to be a more difficult year for Obama than 2009. The firm points to unemployment remaining high, very challenging financial regulatory reform and mid-term elections affecting this reform. “Both the Americans and Europeans are aware of the risk of driving the financial industry into the ground with too much (or too drastic) regulation or taxation,” the report states. “But as reform becomes an election-year domestic battleground, the need to serve political interests will be increasingly at odds with the need to create an efficient framework for regulatory reform.”
  5. Japan — Japan has had to endure sweeping political change and the new Democratic Party of Japan’s (DPJ) efforts to “limit the influence of bureaucrats and industrialists” has created an atmosphere of higher policy risk. Other concerns regard the uncertainty of the DPJ and the party’s less favorable disposition toward the business community, which is likely to harm financial confidence, further affecting economic woes.

The remainder of their top 10 list can be viewed here. It’s interesting to note the “red herrings” section listed at the bottom, which includes information on Iraq, the Persian Gulf, Russia, the dollar and New York and London.