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California Unveils New Earthquake Warning System

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California governor Gavin Newsom announced a new state-wide system, created in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey, that will provide California residents with an early warning for coming earthquakes. Part of the system is an emergency messaging system that sends text warnings, similar to those that cell phone users already get for floods and missing persons. The other component of the system is a new app called MyShake, which will give people “tens of seconds” advance notice before a quake strikes. If you are in a house, that might be enough time to get to a safe spot away from falling furniture.

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If you are on the road, it may be enough time to pull off the road or stop before a bridge or tunnel.

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According to the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, “The system uses ground motion sensors from across the state to detect earthquakes before humans can feel them and will notify Californians so that they can ‘Drop, cover and hold on’ in advance of an earthquake.” A similar app called ShakeAlertLA was unveiled in January, but was only available to L.A. residents. Additionally, an early warning system had already been in place in California, but many believed that it was not sensitive enough. This summer, after two major earthquakes hit a desert area outside of Los Angeles the week of July 4th, L.A. residents complained that they had not received any warning because the quake’s distance from the city meant that it was strong enough to set off the sensors in Los Angeles.

Newsom announced the new system on the 30th anniversary of the Loma Prieta earthquake that hit San Francisco in 1989, killing 63 people and causing a reported $6 billion in 1989 dollars (more than $12 billion today) in property damage. A spokesperson for the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services said that if the new system had been in place at the time of Loma Prieta, residents would have gotten a warning 15 to 18 seconds before the earthquake hit.

Shortly after its release, two earthquakes in San Francisco tested the app and it was able to warn users within a median time of 2.1 seconds for the first quake and 1.

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6 seconds for the second. Officials said that the app will improve as it is tested further, and will also be available in Spanish and other languages in the near future, allowing it to reach more California residents.

California has a 99.7% chance of a 6.7 magnitude earthquake or larger in the next 30 years, according to Dr. William Leith of the U.S. Department of the Interior’s U.S. Geological Survey. And while the new system could protect residents from bodily harm, the same cannot be said for their property.

According to a 2018 California Department of Insurance report, only 13% of state residents with homeowner’s insurance purchased earthquake coverage in 2017. The total for all Californians is likely lower, around 10%, leaving many vulnerable to high costs for repairing and rebuilding property.

Q&A: California Businesses Prepare for the Next Quake

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On October 18, more than 10 million Californians participated in The Great Shakeout to prepare for the next catastrophic earthquake and bring awareness to earthquake preparedness across the state. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) predicts a 99% chance of a magnitude 6.7+ earthquake in the Bay Area within the next 30 years, preparation is essential.

Kate Stillwell is a structural engineer and founder and CEO of Jumpstart, a new earthquake insurance provider which helps families and individuals following a disaster via text. As a business owner and lifelong Californian, Stillwell took part in the Shakeout and shared her experience and insight for earthquake preparedness.

Risk Management Monitor: How difficult is it to get businesses to take part in an event like the Shakeout?

Kate Stillwell: The trick is to make it fun. It only takes a few minutes, and if you can get some good laughs out of it, all the better. Also, for the San Francisco Bay Area, the anniversary of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake is always the same week as ShakeOut, so people remember and talk about it around the proverbial water cooler.

RMM: How beneficial is it for them to take part?

KS: It builds muscle memory. You need to know what to do without thinking because you won’t be thinking.  Just as important is that the drill strikes up a conversation about other ways to get prepared, not just at work, but at home, too.

RMM: What did you take away from this year’s event?

KS: We got a great video of ourselves and since we’re in a co-working space, we did it in front of all the other startups, which reminded them they need to practice and get prepared, too. 

RMM: What are some commonalities that small, medium and large businesses share when preparing for earthquakes?

KS: Businesses of all sizes must keep their employees safe. Employees need to know how to react, to “Drop, cover, and hold on,” like we emphasize during the ShakeOut, and to climb under desks or other sturdy objects and stay put. Businesses also generally face the challenge of convincing employees to take preparation seriously and review preparedness plans, that’s why national events like the Great ShakeOut are such an effective tool.

RMM: How do small, medium and large businesses differ when preparing?

KS: Small businesses have the advantage of all co-workers knowing one another and being able to physically look out for each other in the event of a disaster. For homeowners, we always say that neighbors are the people you’ll rely on in the event of a disaster, and it really is similar at work. Colleagues are able to look out for each other in the event of an earthquake, and this is much easier for smaller teams. In a larger business, you can replicate these positive effects by grouping people by team.

RMM: How have preparedness plans changed in recent years? What significant improvements, if any, have you noticed or instituted?

KS: The rapid development and improvement of earthquake sensor networks have been the most significant improvement in earthquake preparedness recently. The USGS ShakeAlert system began Phase 1 operations just a couple days ago, providing hospitals, transit systems, and other institutions the earliest possible earthquake warnings so they can initiate life-saving operations. It’s not enough time to evacuate a building, but it is enough time to stop the elevators and open the doors, so people don’t get trapped. These kinds of full-system improvements are making huge strides in helping us prepare and stay one step ahead of the next big earthquake.

RMM: What are some difficulties California businesses – or businesses with operations there – face, that differ from those in other high-risk areas?

KS: One of the biggest factors is downtime. There are so many externalities outside of a business’ control, which affect how soon an operation can get back up and running. The prudent approach for a business with operations in California is to locate any operations requiring continuous uptime, such as out-of-state data centers. Also, consider designating a secondary location for executive operations until the home facilities can be occupied.

RMM: What are the most effective safety drills businesses can perform?

KS: No matter what type of emergency, a really important drill is to practice an alternative chain of command with a command-and-control style of making decisions.  This is so foreign to the normal style of making decisions. In emergency situations, the best person to be in the “command” position is usually not the day-to-day business leaders; it’s someone with emergency response training.

Visit here for more information about Jumpstart.

Proposal Would Increase Earthquake Coverage in CA

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Surprisingly, only about 12% of insured households in California currently have earthquake insurance. For such an quake-prone area, 12% is just not enough and, luckily, a new initiative may provide a sharp increase in the number of households with coverage against such catastrophes.

According to a RAND Corporation study, a proposal for the federal government to support state-run catastrophe insurance programs would increase the number of people buying earthquake coverage in California. The plan would also lower both uninsured losses and government assistance following a major quake. The four main tenents of the Catastrophe Obligation Guarantee Act (COGA) are:

  • lower insurance costs
  • more households with earthquake insurance coverage
  • decrease in uninsured losses
  • decrease in demand for federal disaster assistance

The RAND Corporation’s study estimates that lower premiums will produce a 13.2% increase in the purchase of earthquake insurance from the California Earthquake Authority, the privately-funded organization that provides earthquake insurance to the state’s residents.

“While catastrophe obligation guarantees could substantially reduce earthquake insurance costs in California, they would ultimately have a modest effect on decreasing uninsured losses and reducing the amount of disaster assistance spending.” said Tom LaTourrette, lead author of the study and a senior physical scientist with RAND, a nonprofit research organization.

So, though the study predicts an increase in the purchase of earthquake insurance, a substantial portion of earthquake losses are expected to fall below policy deductibles. Thus, an increase in coverage would translate to “less than a 1% increase” in the amount of losses that would be reimbursed. So while COGA is expected to decrease the amount of uninsured losses after a California quake, it is not a total solution. The study suggests that officials consider other avenues for increasing earthquake insurance coverage, such as public education and marketing and new, more attractive earthquake insurance products.