Many have speculated that the loooong stretch of favorable pricing that insurance buyers have enjoyed may soon be coming to a close. To many analysts, all of the disasters of 2011 combined with some other market-turning pressures have finally reached a head. A market turn is inevitable and the start of the hard market may not be far off. (Although all lines are unlikely to be affected the same way.)

Today, we got some confirmation of that fact from the RIMS Benchmark Survey. (Note: RIMS publishes this blog and pays of my salary.)

A lack of substantive change in average renewal premiums for three of four lines tracked by the RIMS Benchmark Survey™ in the second quarter suggests that the soft commercial lines insurance market may be close to its bottom. General liability, property and workers’ compensation all fell by less than 1 percent on average, while directors & officers liability policies renewed 4.5 percent lower. The survey, which is administered by Advisen Ltd., tracks changes in policy renewals as reported by risk managers.

It couldn’t last forever, I guess.

A RIMS board member offers some additional, disheartening thoughts about just how quick a market turn could come if any hurricanes make landfall in the next few months.

“Insurance buyers continue to benefit from a competitive insurance market, but the situation could change quickly,” says Frederick Savage, FCII, ARM, RIMS Board of Directors. “Hurricane season is underway in the US and forecasters continue to call for above-average activity. One or two very large storms on top of the catastrophe losses in the first half of the year could be enough to spark higher premiums, at least for property risks.”

Don’t worry, insurance buyers. All is not lost.

The path may be rockier, but there are ways to navigate the transitional market ahead.