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When Risk Management Hits Closer to Home

(The following is a guest post by Marcus Cree, vice president of risk solutions for SunGard’s capital markets.)

A couple of weeks ago, there was a house fire at my home (no one was hurt, and the house is now in a restoration stage). Afterward, it occurred to me that I write, speak and consult exclusively on the subject of risk management, so this raises an interesting set of questions. How well do I internalize the risk management mindset, and do I apply the principles I espouse in the most important environment I know: my own home?

With this in mind, I decided to move away from strict financial firm risk management and instead apply the same kinds of tests to myself. In a risk strategy assessment, I would normally look at a range of indicators, so I decided to assess the recent situation with the same criteria:

  • Early warning of impending crisis
  • Contingency tactics for immediate reaction to the crisis
  • Post crisis, effect mitigation
  • Buy in across the team to the crisis management strategy

Early warning of impending crisis
In a typical financial institution, an “early warning system” would involve the risk management team understanding the level of risk that was deemed acceptable, and understanding what factors feed into this risk metric. This enables tail analysis to be done in order to understand what negative effects are hiding in the extremes of possible immediate spikes in the risk factors as they are being observed now. If the limits are set in accordance with the risk policy, then while the firm is taking active risks, these should be within the boundaries of management risk tolerance.

In a home and family situation, it is not much different. Understanding the potential sources of risk, such as wood burning stoves, electrical wiring, etc., and establishing the accepted level of risk is critical. A home needs to be heated in the winter, and the risk that this poses in terms of fire has to be offset by the need to maintain a reasonable house temperature. That said, appreciating the risk of fire has to be taken into account, and mitigated to the extent to which it can by regular maintenance of the chimneys and stoves. It is also vital to have a warning system in place.

In this case, most likely a smoke alarm system.

Contingency tactics for immediate reaction to the crisis
This is the second most important aspect of risk management. Once the emergency (or financial crisis) is underway, the situation (or losses) need to be held under as much control as can be expected.

In banking terms, this could be seen as liquidity reserves. How long can we survive as an institution under stressed conditions, and how do we make the most of the liquidity that we have? It is here that liquid assets, collateral and re-hypothecation of that collateral come under scrutiny

In the home fire situation, it is more a matter of evacuation. Does each room have at least two viable exits? Do all members of the family know the exit strategy, meeting points, etc.? It is important to understand that a fire is most unlikely on a sunny afternoon, with everyone wide awake. It is far more likely that smoke could be filling the exit corridors while everyone has been sleeping soundly until the moment of crisis.

In many ways, this is the same kind of problem faced by risk managers, who report on VaR numbers based on normal market conditions, only to be faced with a collapsing market and generalized confusion and panic across the market. Indeed, it is the stressed vs. normal assumptions that have caused a lot of criticism of the VaR based risk reporting.

Post crisis, effect mitigation
This stage is really covering the failure contingency, or hedging effects. In banking terms, this typically takes the form of credit default swaps, diversification and market hedges. Stressing these relationships and running disaster scenarios should be a routine job of a risk department. In the home situation, it comes down to insurance, and protection of key documents needed to activate that insurance.

Buy-in across the team to the crisis management strategy
I regularly speak and blog about risk culture and how the true risk managers in a bank are the traders and portfolio managers. The role of the risk department itself, in my view, is to facilitate communication of the risk appetite and the risk position between the senior management (who create the appetite) and the risk takers (who assume it).

In the home situation, the same thing applies. A fire evacuation plan is only good if it is understood by all who may be affected. Smoky 4:00 a.m. darkness is not an environment to start communicating about what needs to be done to prevent or survive a fire. The family has to recognize the smoke alarms, know to call 911, understand the exit options – including how to select the best one, and then know where to meet safely outside.

Ultimately there are risk management trade-offs to be made in order to achieve levels of reward or comfort. This is as true at home as it is within a Wall Street firm. I would rather not have tested my own “micro” risk culture in this way, but since it was tested, I now believe it can improved.

Property Insurance Rates Still Rising

Risk managers have long been hoping that the soft insurance market would never end. For years, rates have been low and risk transfer has been relatively cheap. Increasingly obvious signs of a market turn have been surfacing for a while now, so the fact that rates are now hardening isn’t exactly a shock. But it is nevertheless difficult medicine to swallow. And when it comes to insuring commercial property, especially when it has natural disaster exposure, the good ol’ days are now essentially over.

A first quarter pricing report from Marsh confirms the bad news, showing that property insurance rates have increased between 10%-20% for natural-catastrophe-exposed property. Even accounts with no disaster risk are about 10%.

“In the U.S., the property market continues to be in a state of transition with insureds more likely to experience rate increases than those renewing with flat or modest rate decreases,”  said Dean Klisura, leader of Marsh’s U.S. risk practices unit. “We believe that this trend will continue in the short term, with the average rate of increase continuing to rise month over month.”

As they say, everything ends badly — otherwise it wouldn’t end.

Almost One Billion People in Cities Across the Globe Are Exposed to Natural Disaster Risk

There are 450 urban areas on the planet with a population of least one million people, according to the United Nations. In total, these are the areas where 1.

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4 billion people live. And a whopping 890 million of them are at risk from natural disasters across the world.

“Major cities in Europe and Africa are the least exposed overall,” states a recent U.N. report on urbanization. “Only 26 percent and 37 percent of their cities with one million inhabitants or more are living in regions exposed to at least one major risk of natural disaster. However, cities in Latin America and the Caribbean, in Northern America, and especially in Asia are often located in regions exposed to natural hazards.

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We spend a lot of time discussing how people across the globe are now at a greater risk to natural disasters than ever before. There are many causes. Climate change gets a lot of press, as it should. But urbanization is the largest culprit.

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As we increasingly cluster together into small spaces, the tragedy becomes that much worse whenever a disaster does strike. And since economic, as well as personal, reasons mean that we tend to gather on the coastlines, it is no surprise that more than 60% of the world’s urban population is at risk.

(h/t Risk Market News)

Billy Beane and Baseball’s Big Spenders

For me, the surest sign that spring has arrived is the beginning of the baseball season. And although the season officially kicked off with a series of games between the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners last week in Japan, it really began in earnest last night when the defending World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals beat the new-look Miami Marlins on Opening Night.

In the spirit of the new baseball season, I recently had the chance to speak to Billy Beane, the general manager of the aforementioned Oakland A’s and the subject of the book and movie Moneyball, for the latest issue of Risk Management. Beane will also be delivering a keynote address at the upcoming RIMS 2012 Annual Conference & Exhibition in Philadelphia. In our interview, Beane discussed how he uses data to run a competitive baseball team and addressed some of the risk management and insurance concerns that a general manager of a baseball team has to face.

One comment I found particularly interesting was the following:

About 10 years ago, we’d insure player contracts. What’s interesting is that, for years, say you signed a player to a five- or six-year contract, you could get that entire contract insured. And I remember one time [our insurer] came to us and said they’re no longer going to insure contracts for longer than three years. After three years, they need to be underwritten again. And my assistant and I said, “that’s an insurance company telling us that it’s not a good idea for us to sign players beyond three years.”… So that was basically them telling us these aren’t good bets.

What makes this comment so interesting is that it doesn’t seem like this philosophy is shared around the league. For instance, this past offseason the Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim signed first baseman Albert Pujols to a 10-year, $240 million contract while the Detroit Tigers gave first baseman Prince Fielder $214 million over 9 years. Not to be outdone for the privilege of paying players $20 million a year, just last week the Cincinnati Reds gave their star first baseman Joey Votto a 10-year, $225 million contract extension, while the San Francisco Giants extended pitcher Matt Cain’s contract by 5 years for $112.5 million.

Regardless of the value of these contracts, they all go against Beane’s (and his insurer’s) no-more-than-three-years rule and it’s hard to see how these players will deliver full value on their deals. Granted they are some of the best players in the game right now but injury and age could take their toll on performance at any time. Pujols, in particular, may be one of the greatest baseball players of all time, but he is 32. Not many players, no matter how good, are still productive (or even able to play) in their 40s. These signings seem to illustrate the difference between baseball’s big markets haves and it’s small market have-nots like the Oakland A’s. The richer clubs are simply able to take on risks that Beane cannot.

Or maybe there’s a more insidious method to their madness, as Jonah Keri writes on ESPN’s Grantland:

Sweating potential value, opportunity cost, and other related principles might be focusing on the wrong details. The recent $2 billion Dodgers sale points to a baseball landscape that has changed dramatically. Current and prospective owners see an industry that grew revenue through a tough recession and now stands poised to rake in far more money, with media deals rising, the economy improving, and the game in the midst of its longest period of uninterrupted labor peace since the advent of free agency.

According to Keri, these owners are making what they think are smart choices given the current market. But these choices may be based on the assumption that that the value of their clubs can only go up into the rarefied billion-dollar air.  So what’s a few hundred million here and there? A baseball team is basically a license to print money. Obviously, nothing can ever go wrong with that strategy. Right, housing market?