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Time Line: A Dry, Hot Summer

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The summer of 2012 has been one a farmer would love to forget and one that weathermen never will. Daily temperature records were regularly shattered throughout the United States and historic drought conditions, which remain ongoing in many areas, caused crop yields to suffer. By July 19, after weeks of “unrelenting heat and a lack of rain continued the downward spiral of drought conditions,” according to National Climate Data Scientist Richard Heim, nearly 64% of the nation had officially entered drought, the highest percentage since 1950s.

Worst of all, some fear that this is less of an anomaly and more a sign of what’s to come in a warmer future. If that is the case, farmers, states and the nation at large will have to find new ways to ensure expected results can still be met. Regardless, the summer of 2012 will be notable, either for its harsh conditions or as the first in a line or extreme summers.

So here, we look back at a memorable season.

June 23

Wildfires burned in many areas of the western United States this summer, but a blaze in Colorado set historic state records. At least six were killed and some 600 homes were destroyed by a wildfire that devastated the Waldo section of Colorado Springs. The property damage has been estimated north of $500 million, some $350 million of which is insured, but the human toll looms even larger. A local resident, C.J. Moore told NPR that the fire was so hot her driveway exploded and, in the blaze, she lost much more than possessions. “One of the things I thought about the other day was the flag that was over my late husband’s casket,” Moore told NPR. “And I’m going, ‘I can’t replace that.’ I mean, yeah, I can get another flag, but it wouldn’t have served the same purpose. And you [think about it], and then tears well up.”

June 28

As a relentless heat wave blankets much of the country, and cities throughout the United States set temperature records, the nation’s capital sets a historic mark. June 28 to July 8 marks an 11-day stretch of 95-degree-or-hotter days in Washington, D.C., breaking the previous record set in 1930. The 105 Fahrenheit reached on July 7th becomes the second-hottest day in the city’s history. (Chart above, and data, via the Washington Post.)

July 17

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that 38% of the U.S. corn crop is rated as poor to very poor. “That 38% represents the highest amount of U.S. corn rated poor to very poor since the end of the 1988 growing season,” said USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey. “We now see in 13 of the 18 major production states in the U.S., at least one quarter of the corn crop rated poor to very poor.” In Kentucky, Missouri and Indiana, more than 70% of the corn crop is rated as poor.

July 18

A Milliman report estimates that a dozen major corn and soybean-producing states could tally underwriting losses of $2.8 billion. The 12 states included were Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin, and Milliman notes that “other states, including Arkansas and many western states, are also experiencing an intense drought and could see high crop insurance indemnities as well.”

July 20

The U.S. drought monitor releases shocking findings: due to “unrelenting heat and lack of rain,” 63.5% of the United States is now officially suffering from drought. Mark Svoboda, climatologist for the U.S. drought monitor notes that the summer heat, on top of a dry winter and a warm spring, “Our soil moistures are depleted.”

July 25

In a summer full of them, the USDA extended yet another series of disaster proclamations for counties in several states, raising the number of counties where farmers were eligible for drought-related disaster assistance to 1,369. The department noted that this highlighted the need for Congressional action. “The urgency for Congress to pass a food, farm and jobs bill is greater than ever,” said Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. “The hard-working Americans who produce our food and fiber, feed for livestock, and contribute to a home-grown energy policy—they need action now.” One week later, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack would report that more than 50% of the nation’s counties were officially designated disaster zones, including more than three-quarters of U.S. cattle acreage. “It’s the most severe and expensive drought in 25 years,” said USDA economist Timothy Park.

August 2

The House of Representatives passes a $383 million drought-assistance package for farmers and livestock producers. The short-term care package is generally seen as a reasonable relief effort but also highlights Congress’s failure to pass a long-term farm bill. “My priority remains to get a five-year farm bill on the books and put those policies in place,” said House Agriculture Committee Chairman Frank Lucas (R-OK) in a statement, “but the most pressing business before us is to provide disaster assistance to those producers impacted by the drought conditions who are currently exposed.”

August 5

Outspoken NASA climate scientist James Hansen writes a Washington Post op-ed proclaiming that extreme weather such as the ongoing drought and recurring heat waves this summer are the direct result of man-made climate change. “Our analysis shows that it is no longer enough to say that global warming will increase the likelihood of extreme weather and to repeat the caveat that no individual weather event can be directly linked to climate change,” wrote Hansen. “To the contrary, our analysis shows that, for the extreme hot weather of the recent past, there is virtually no explanation other than climate change.”

August 10

The National Crop Insurance Services, an industry trade group, reported that U.S. crop insurers had already paid out $822 million in indemnities so far this season.

August 13

The USDA updates its corn outlook to show that 51% of the corn in the 18 states that yield upwards of 90% of the U.S. crop yield are rated poor. 26% of that total is considered very poor. “This again shows that rains this week were too little, too late to stabilize the corn crop,” said DTN Analyst John Sanow.

The Formal Demands of a Somali Pirate

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I have paid close attention to two trends in recent years: the increase of piracy on the high seas and the decrease of formality in writing.

The first is self-explanatory and most everyone has now come to understand that the threat of pirates attacking commercial vessels, particularly off the coast of Somalia, is a major threat to both international cargo and those who ship it. The second has been a longer-running trend, in which letters that begin “Dear Sir” have been replace with emails led by “Hey Bob” or even less-formal messages — in texts, tweets and Facebook messages — that seem to start mid-sentence and contain no capital letters.

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Until now, however, I thought these two things existed on two different planes of reality altogether.

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But a new Reuters reports shows that there is a link.

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And ironically, these lawless swashbucklers are apparently one of the last bastions of formality in letter writing we have left.

Rogues though they may be, these pirates in many cases are surprisingly well-organized, down to having their own packets of paperwork — on letterhead — for their victims.

Reuters obtained a copy of one such packet, presented to the owner of a hijacked oil tanker and the owner’s insurer after the ship was taken. Due to the commercial sensitivities, the names of the insurer and ship owner were redacted from the document, as was the size of the ransom request.

But what remains is colorful enough, and somewhat surprising. The cover sheet, in memo format, is addressed “To Whom It May Concern” with the subject line “Congratulations to the Company/Owner.”

“Having seen when my Pirate Action Group (P.A.G) had controlled over your valuable vessel we are saying to you Company/Owner welcome to Jamal’s Pirate Action Group (J.P.A.G) and you have to follow by our law to return back your vessel and crew safely,” the memo begins.

The tone of the memo belies the violent reality of the pirate’s actions. As of early August armed Somali pirates hold more than 170 hostages, according to the IMB, and were responsible for 35 deaths in 2011 alone.

“Do not imagine that we are making to you intimidation,” the memo says, before signing off with “Best regards” and the signature of Jamal Faahiye Culusow, the General Commander of the Group.

Lest there be any doubt about who Jamal is or what he does, his signature is accompanied by his seal — yes, Jamal has a stamped seal — depicting a skull and crossed swords with the name of the group.

The rest of the article discusses piracy insurance coverage and is worth reading.

Business Travelers Unprepared for the Unexpected

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Business travelers are accustomed to the usual travel burdens: delayed flights, missed connections, hotel s reservation mismanagement. But those situations can, for the most part, be easily overcome and rarely put employees at risk of physical harm. Terrorist events, natural disasters and rogue riots can, however, and many fly abroad for work are concerned about this.

A recent study by Europ Assistance USA found that 31% of international business travelers are concerned for their personal safety. The study identified additional concerns and experiences of these travelers, as well as their level of preparedness. According to the study, half (51%) of the respondents experienced a medical need while traveling, with the 55% falling ill and 24% not sure they could obtain a prescription refill. One in two experienced a national disaster, while nearly a third (28%) encountered personal safety or security issues.

“With recent events such as the earthquake in Japan, political unrest in the Middle East and the ash cloud in Iceland, it’s an unpredictable and potentially risky world out there for business travelers,” said Glenn Maykish, vice president of sales and marketing for EA USA. “Understanding employee experiences and fears can help organizations better serve and protect their valuable employees while away from home.”

The study also offered up a useful infographic, helping to illustrate the findings.

The State of the Insurance Market

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Yesterday, a meeting of minds discussed the state of the insurance market and the RIMS Benchmark Survey in a webinar that was broadcast live from the RIMS offices in Manhattan. The panel of experts included:

  • Jim Blinn, principal at Advisen (moderator)
  • Richard W. Sarnie, vice president of risk management for The Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company
  • Carol Fox, director of strategic and enterprise risk practice for RIMS
  • Pamela Ferrandino, executive vice president, national practice leader casualty, placement and senior director for Willis North America

Presented as insider views and opinions from behind-the-scenes, the webinar allowed the audience of buyers and brokers to gain a perspective that is intentionally broad and could influence how they adjust their risk appetite for the second half of 2012.

Jim Blinn: What is driving the increase in total cost of risk (TCOR)?

Rich Sarnie: I expand the TCOR beyond just the insurable cost. Look at things like the cost of capital. We also look at our safety expenditures. What I try to do is use the benchmark data as a starting point, but then add to it.

Blinn: In 2011, a record year for catastrophes, how have they had an impact on risk management and the types of questions you see underwriters asking?

RS: They’re really drilling down on our supply chain. Risk managers really need to be in tune with operations — where you’re getting your products and how you’re going to get it to marketplace, and if there’s a supply chain interruption, how are you going to deal with that?

What challenges do you see and how do you explain them to senior management and the board?

Carol Fox: I have an embarrassing example in regards to that. We had budgeted for a four-time increase and we missed it. My recommendation is to communicate with underwriters and brokers about cycles. If they aren’t communicating throughout the year, you really don’t get an opportunity to forecast things.

RS: This is what we get paid to do. Anyone can purchase cheap insurance. We have to say ‘listen, this is where pricing is going’ and if it comes to a certain point, you don’t buy it. This is were you really show your value to senior management. Again, it goes back to TCOR. Buying insurance is just one tool of many, it’s not the only one.

Pamela Ferrandino: I think it’s also a responsibility of the broker to communicate with you well in advance about a renewal.

As concerns risk, what are the biggest issues for senior management?

RS: Senior management is now much more focused on risk management. But their biggest concern is not insurance or insurable risks, it’s other risks, such as availability of affordable finance, supply chain, reputation, social media. you should have tools to address those risks. Those are the things senior management cares about the most.

Are there similar concerns at the board level?

CF: They’re most concerned about strategic risks. The other thing we’re hearing is that they’re getting a lot of data, but not a lot of information. To Rich’s point, the board is not necessarily focusing on insurance, but the question really is, what are the deviations? It all ties back to the risk appetite of an organization and its tolerances.

The workers comp industry has been under stress. How have comp carriers responded and how has this affected your clients?

PF: We have an aging workforce and that has presented a problem in the workers comp market.

What about reputation risk? cyber issues?

Carol: Organizations that actually rate reputation impact separately from any other impact they may have have a better handle on their risks. Reputation is always going to be important. From an emerging risk perspective, the biggest concern is not being prepared. Organizations may identify an emerging risk but they’re doing it in a very siloed way.