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For Boston

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It has taken me a couple days to process what happened in Boston. As an editor for a risk management publication, you think it would be easier to be dispassionate about these sorts of things. After all, disasters, or at least potential disasters, are our stock in trade.

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If bad things didn’t happen, we wouldn’t need risk management and I wouldn’t have anything to write about.

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But every so often, words fail me.

Maybe it’s the visceral nature of a terrorist attack that conjures up memories of how it felt to be in New York on 9/11 or maybe it’s because I’m a runner who remembers how great it always felt to finally approach the finish line and the cheering crowds after a grueling race. Or maybe it’s because I’ve spent plenty of good times in Boston over the years and always considered it the place I’d love to live if I ever left New York.

But the truth is, all those reasons feel trite to me. It’s as if I’m trying to manufacture some kind of spurious connection to the tragedy to somehow make my shock over what happened more real than the next person.

The thing is, we all do it. The cynic in me wonders if it’s to garner additional sympathy or if it’s just a natural psychological tic that helps us cope.

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Really though, events like what happened in Boston affect us not because we remember 9/11 or because we’re runners or because we like the Red Sox. They affect us because we’re human. We need no excuses. It’s as simple as that. We care because that’s just what we do.

As my buddy and former boss Bill Coffin put it over at National Underwriter’s Property Casualty 360:

Even in a total loss, there is always recovery. Regeneration. And so it will be with Boston and its magnificent marathon, and with all those who have been so heartsick over the bombing. The humanity that was wounded will be the very thing that carries on and runs that next mile. And the mile after that, and the mile after that. For in the human race, there is no finish line. There is only the road, and the strength to go on, no matter how hard the course.

This tragedy will be dissected in the months and years to come, and we will learn new lessons and develop new plans for managing the risk of events large and small. In the end, we’ll be safer as a whole.

But for now, I think it’s enough, as the Boston College fight song goes, to just be “For Boston.”

(Covered below, for the heck of it, by Boston punks, the Dropkick Murphys.)

For Boston, for Boston,
We sing our proud refrain!
For Boston, for Boston,
‘Tis Wisdom’s earthly fane.
For here all are one
And their hearts are true,
And the towers on the Heights
Reach to Heav’ns own blue.
For Boston, for Boston,
Till the echoes ring again!

For Boston, for Boston,
Thy glory is our own!
For Boston, for Boston,
‘Tis here that Truth is known.
And ever with the Right
Shall thy heirs be found,
Till time shall be no more
And thy work is crown’d.
For Boston, for Boston,
Thy glory is our own!

Obama Budget Proposal a Mixed Bag for Risk Managers

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President Barack Obama released his budget proposal for the 2014 fiscal year on April 10. Media attention has focused on its plan to reduce the nation’s deficit. But for risk managers, the budget is also noteworthy for two other reasons: what it includes and what it doesn’t.

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As in years past, the administration’s budget includes a provision that would eliminate the current tax deduction for reinsurance premiums ceded by domestic insurers to foreign affiliates. Many in the industry, including RIMS, have expressed their opposition to this provision being included in any final budget.

In an April 15 letter to the House Ways and Means Committee, RIMS stated that the administration’s proposal would have “demonstrable negative implications for the global reinsurance market and the United States businesses that rely on this market” and would have a “chilling effect on the use of foreign reinsurance.” (View the full letter for a deeper explanation of the tax deduction.)

The Coalition for Competitive Insurance Rates (CCIR) published a study in 2009 (with an update in 2010) that found eliminating the tax deduction would lead to a 20% reduction in the overall supply of reinsurance available in the U.S. market.

This would in turn lead to consumer price increases of at least billion and up to billion annually.

A brighter spot for risk managers comes from an item not found in the administration’s proposed budget: a cut to the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act.

In President Obama’s first few budgets, support for TRIA was significantly reduced. In his proposed fiscal-year 2011 budget, for example, the administration called for eliminating nearly $250 million in federal subsidies to insurance companies for terrorism insurance; increasing deductibles and copays for insurers that participate in the program; and eliminating coverage for acts of domestic terrorism.

With TRIA set to sunset at the end of 2014, the industry looked to this year’s budget proposal for a sign on where the president stands on the issue.

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While not including a cut for the program in a budget proposal is not the same as support, it is viewed as a positive sign that the administration will get behind an extension.

It should be noted that government’s final budget rarely looks anything like the initial proposals put forth by the administration and Congress.

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While President Obama has included the reinsurance tax provision in the past, that provision has never been included in any final agreement. The same holds for years in which the administration included cuts to TRIA.

The administration’s initial budget proposal does still carry weight, however.

And what is — and is not — included remains notable for risk managers and worth keeping an eye on going forward.

Munich Re: Scientifically Proving Climate Change Affects Thunderstorm Losses

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“It has been possible for the first time to scientifically prove that climatic changes have already influenced U.S. thunderstorm losses.”

That’s the statement Munich Re put forth this week when it issued a report stating the correlation between climate change and severe thunderstorm losses in the United States, findings that were based on a 1970-2009 study produced by Munich Re and the German Aerospace Center.

The study examined hail, tornado, thundersquall and heavy rainfall losses throughout the United States, finding that the increase from thunderstorm losses remained, even after adjustments to take into account socio-economi changes.

“It is therefore clear that the change in losses during the period in question is largely driven by changes in climatological boundary conditions,” said Eberhard Faust, from Munich Re’s Geo Risks Research and co-author of the study. “In particular, the potential energy required in the atmosphere for the formation of severe thunderstorms has increased in the course of time.

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”

This report comes after a record-setting 2011, a year in which thunderstorms and tornadoes caused more than $25 billion in insured losses with 553 direct fatalities., according to the Insurance Information Institute.

The graph below illustrates U.S. thunderstorm loss trends from 1980 to 2012.

As Dr. Peter Röder, member of Munich Re’s board of management points out, “This scientific study shows, on the one hand, that some regions already need to adapt to changing weather risks. This concerns the insurance industry as risk carrier, first and foremost, but also those in the private and public spheres responsible for deciding on prevention measures.

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“

What to Know About the New Avian Flu Outbreak

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It’s hard to know what to think about this new bird flu. In one respect, this new strain, H7N9, is deeply concerning since it has never been seen before. On the other, these types of things tend to never be covered properly in the mainstream media so the constant, panicked, hype-fueled reaction does little good in terms of helping people prepare for a potentially serious public health emergency.

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Fortunately, Wired is here.

In a great primer, they delve into all the relevant information that any organization should know.

By now you’ve no doubt heard that international health authorities are deeply concerned about a new flu strain that has surfaced in China: H7N9, which so far has sickened at least 16 people and killed six of them. The outbreak has a number of features that are troubling. It emerged rapidly; the first cases were announced five days ago, and the first death apparently occurred on Feb. 27. It is widely distributed: Confirmed cases have been found in three adjoining provinces that wrap around Shanghai, and also in Shanghai municipality itself.

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And it is novel: H7N9 has never been recorded in humans before.

For infectious-disease geeks, it’s that last aspect that raises a particular nervous thrill. Most of the time, most people take flu for granted, to the point of not bothering to be vaccinated against it because they assume it will not make them very sick. But every once in a while, flu defies expectations, and roars up into a pandemic: worldwide spread, high numbers of cases, high rates of death. When a pandemic occurs, almost definitionally, it is because of a new strain to which humans have no prior immunity.

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In human terms, H7N9 is a new strain.

This is all made more confusing because it is happening in China, an infinitely complex place with an ambivalent and contradictory attitude toward transparency. Public health has never quite recovered from the realization, 10 years ago, that the Chinese government had attempted to conceal the beginning of the SARS epidemic, which was exposed — and transmitted to the world — because a doctor from a town in southern China traveled (some say fled) to Hong Kong to attend a family wedding (some say to seek treatment he could not have gotten at home).

In the years since, some parts of Chinese public health have seemed to open up enormously: The government has threatened sellers of spoiled and counterfeit food with prosecution, and researchers have been allowed to investigate the spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria around the country’s new mega-farms. And yet, just before this new outbreak broke open, China was being challenged for not giving clear answers to why thousands of dead pigs were showing up in its rivers.

This is just the beginning.

Head over and read the rest to get the best take I’ve seen thus far on the largest health threat, both to individuals and business continuity, that the globe has seen in several years. Wired also offers a great list of resources to follow as this potential crisis continues to evolve. Worth bookmarking.