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Widening Wealth Gap Is Biggest Global Risk, World Economic Forum Predicts

Wealth Disparity

According to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks 2014 report, the chronic gap between the incomes of the richest and poorest citizens is the risk most likely to cause serious global damage in the next decade. Looking forward, the 700 experts queried emphasized that the next generation will only feel this disparity more acutely if current conditions continue. Those presently coming of age face “twin challenges” of reduced employment opportunity and rising education costs, prompting the World Economic Forum to consider the impact on political and social stability as well as economic development.

“Many young people today face an uphill battle,” explained David Cole, group chief risk officer of Swiss Re. “As a result of the financial crisis and globalization, the younger generation in the mature markets struggle with ever fewer job opportunities and the need to support an aging population. While in the emerging markets there are more jobs to be had, the workforce does not yet possess the broad based skill-sets necessary to satisfy demand. It’s vital we sit down with young people now and begin planning solutions aimed at creating fit-for-purpose educational systems, functional job-markets, efficient skills exchanges and the sustainable future we all depend on.”

After a widening global wealth gap, experts predicted that extreme weather events will be the global risk next most likely to cause systemic shock on a global scale. They identified fiscal crises as the global risk with the potential to have the biggest impact over the next 10 years.

The top five most likely and most potentially impactful global risks are:

Most Likely Risks

1. Income disparity (societal risk)

2. Extreme weather events (environmental risk)

3. Unemployment and underemployment (economic risk)

4. Climate change (environmental risk)

5. Cyberattacks (technological risk)

 

Most Potentially Impactful Risks

1. Fiscal crises (economic risk)

2. Climate change (environmental risk)

3. Water crises (environmental risk)

4. Unemployment and underemployment (economic risk)

5. Critical information infrastructure breakdown(technological risk)

TRIA Will be Renewed, P-C Panel Agrees

Photo by Don Pollard

NEW YORK—Insurance industry experts in a panel discussion agreed that while terrorism risks are changing, they believe the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA), set to expire Dec. 31, 2014, will be reauthorized by Congress. In fact, a poll taken at the annual Property/Casualty Insurance Joint Industry Forum found that 93% of attendees believe TRIA will be renewed.

“In the U.S., we’re moving away from the risk of catastrophic-scale terrorism. But we are probably more likely to have the Boston Marathon type of terrorism,” said Stephen Flynn, professor of political science and founding director of the Center for Resilience Studies at Northeastern University in Boston.

The reasons are that, “The know-how to carry out these low-end acts is pervasive and the opportunities for this type of terrorism are relatively high. Because they can be conducted on a small scale, they are difficult to plan for in advance and intercept,” he explained, adding, “In my mind there is no question that the feds need to play a backstop role. This isn’t a natural market. It’s not a natural disaster environment. The role an industry can play in educating about risk and engaging mitigation measures is a very useful public policy outcome of the feds playing a role as a backstop.”

The six-member panel was moderated by Julie Rochman, president and CEO of the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety.

Robert H. Easton,executive deputy superintendent of the insurance division at the New York Department of Financial Services [pictured above with John Huff, director of the Missouri Department of Insurance] said, “We would like to see TRIA in some form become permanent so we don’t have to have this discussion every few years.”

Easton added, “The political reality is that this is unlikely to occur, but our view is that if anybody should be taking one of the more extreme views it is New York. The program has been critical to insuring that there is sufficient capacity in the marketplace.”

Huff agreed that it needs to be renewed, but noted that TRIA should not be a “big state, small state issue.” Rather it should be supported by states of all sizes. “Missouri has a significant urban, suburban and rural presence,” he said.

Jay Gelb, managing director and senior equity analyst for Barclays believes TRIA will be reauthorized at the last minute. If reauthorization doesn’t happen, “It would be concerning from an investment viewpoint,” however, “Insurers could underwrite the exposure or limit their concentrations in target areas, especially in lines where losses cannot be excluded, such as workers compensation.”

Matthew Mosher, senior vice president and chief rating officer for the A.M. Best Company observed that while insurers can, indeed, manage the risk of terrorism, and even avoid it, “what does that do for the nation as a whole? When you look at the impact of TRIA, it comes down to how much risk you want individuals to absorb. At this point insurers are not able to provide a large amount of coverage without a backstop.”

In terms of adjustments to the program, Easton said, “We would like to see the inclusion of cyber as a risk that TRIA addresses. The cyber world is very different today than even 12 or 13 years ago.”

For the poll questions and full survey results, go to 2014 Property/Casualty Insurance Joint Industry Forum Questionnaire.

Workers Compensation Issues to Watch in 2014

With 2013 behind us, here are my thoughts on some workers compensation issues to watch for in 2014:

Rates Continue to Climb

In most of the U.S., rates for workers compensation insurance continue to rise. Rates are being driven by rising medical costs, the low interest rate environment, and the general unprofitability of the line of business.

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Potential Expiration of TRIPRA

Unless Congress takes action, the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (TRIPRA) will expire on Dec. 31, 2014. Companies with high employee concentrations in certain cities are already seeing fewer options, with some carriers scaling back their writings to reduce their exposure to a potential terrorism event.

Impact of the Affordable Health Care Act (AHCA)

There has been much speculation about the potential impact the AHCA will have on workers compensation. With a finite number of medical providers available to handle the increased utilization, it is imperative that workers compensation payers identify the providers who deliver the best clinical outcomes for injured workers.

Integrated Disability Management

More employers are realizing that the impact of federal employment laws, like the Americans with Disabilities Act and the Family and Medical Leave Act, must be considered on workers compensation claims. Companies are also recognizing the value of managing non-occupational disability so that valued employees can get back to the workplace and be productive. Integrated disability management programs are the next generation of claims-handling and will expand in the future.

State Legislative Issues

Several states that passed significant reform legislation in the last two years are working to implement those reforms. Passing a law is only the first step, as the rules, regulations, and implementation of those laws determine if they will achieve their intended purpose. The most significant states to watch are in California, New York, and Oklahoma.

When California passed SB 863 in 2012, the expectation from the state’s legislature was that it would increase benefits to injured workers, while lowering costs for employers in the state. Litigation and unanticipated consequences of the bill have resulted in increased complexity and continually rising insurance rates. There is currently talk of potential clean-up legislation to go along with continued efforts at implementation. We will know by the end of the year whether SB 863 will be able to produce the promised cost savings.

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New York streamlined its assessment process, resulting in a significant reduction of the assessment rate for most employers. Since these rates are adjusted annually, it remains to be seen if these assessment savings will continue into the future.

The big news in Oklahoma is the bill that allowed employers to opt-out of workers compensation starting in February 2014. There have been delays in developing the rules and regulations supporting the opt-out plans, and this has in turn delayed carriers’ development of policies to cover new benefit plans. It appears unlikely that everything will be in place in time for employers to opt out beginning in February.

Vendor consolidation

In the last few years, there has been significant vendor consolidation in the workers compensation industry. First on the third-party administrator side and most recently in medical management. All this consolidation is making buyers of these services uneasy.

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They question how this will impact the quality of the services they receive and wonder how their goals of reducing costs align with the vendors’ goals of increasing revenues.

Analytics

Despite the huge amount of premium, exposure and claims data produced by the workers compensation industry, many complain about the lack of actionable information. As an industry, we will see a continued focus on the use of more meaningful analytics that can assist in identifying savings opportunities, formulating action plans, and measuring the impact of change.

Assessing ROI for Medical Cost Management Efforts

Programs including bill review, utilization review, and nurse case-management are all necessary components of any successful workers compensation program. It is important, however, that these programs are constantly monitored to ensure they are being used appropriately.

Please join me Jan. 15, for a webinar discussing these issues and other potential legislative developments to watch in 2014.  Click here to register

New Year, New Natural Disaster Emergency Plans

Along with January renewals and analyzing whether existing policies offer sufficient coverage, the new year is a perfect reminder to review company-wide emergency plans. While 2013 may have been a relatively light year for catastrophe losses, there’s no reason to assume 2014 will be, too.

Check out this infographic from Boston University’s Masters in Specialty Management program for a jump-start on identifying the risks of natural disaster and updating plans for how to handle any emergency:

Survive a Natural Disaster