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Industry Submits Comments on International Tax Reform

On November 19, 2013 the Senate Finance Committee released its proposals for reforming the United States international tax system with the goal of making U.S. businesses more competitive. One of the provisions included in the draft was the reinsurance tax, commonly referred to as the “Neal Bill.” This provision, introduced in the past few legislative sessions by Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA) and Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ), would disallow an income deduction for reinsurance premiums paid by an U.S. insurer to an affiliated reinsurer if the reinsurer is not subject to U.S. federal income tax on the reinsurance premiums. Over the past few weeks, several groups have taken the opportunity to comment on the committee’s draft, and specifically the inclusion of the Neal Bill language.

Upon release of the discussion draft, the Coalition for Competitive Insurance Rates (CCIR) expressed its opposition to the inclusion of the Neal Bill provisions. “The decision by Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) to include this provision in the Finance Committee’s draft ignores warnings from elected officials, state insurance commissioners, trade experts and consumer advocates that this tax would drive up the cost of insurance to homeowners and small businesses.”

Many members of CCIR, including RIMS, also took the opportunity to express their opposition to the tax. In a December letter filed with the Senate Finance Committee, RIMS President John Phelps stated RIMS opposition to the draft because of the “demonstrable negative implications for the global reinsurance market and the United States businesses that rely on this market. The current system allows companies to cede reinsurance, freeing capital to provide more insurance to domestic consumers and thus maintain reasonable premiums.”

Allianz of America, Munich and Swiss Re filed a joint letter stating the reinsurance provisions would “disrupt essential risk distribution practices followed by domestic and foreign insurers, alike; increase premiums and reduce coverage available to U.S. consumers, particularly in catastrophe prone areas along the coastlines.”

James Donelon, Louisiana commissioner of insurance has stated that the discussion draft “could ultimately result in citizens in disaster-prone states like Louisiana being faced with higher premiums for their property insurance.”

Bill Newton, executive director of the Florida Consumer Action Network, expressed similar sentiments. “By increasing taxes on foreign-based reinsurers, consumers would face lower insurance capacity, diminished competition in the insurance market and, most importantly, higher prices. These measures are counterproductive to the job of revitalizing and strengthening the American economy. Ultimately, the cost of increased taxes will not fall on the foreign based reinsurers, but instead on consumers and businesses in Florida and other states.”

While, many continue to oppose the Neal Bill provisions there is one group supportive of the measure. The Coalition for a Domestic Insurance Industry, led by W.R. Berkley Corp., Travelers and Chubb, has consistently supported similar legislation in the past. In a May 21 statement, William R. Berkley, in reference to the re-introduction of the Neal Bill legislation, stated that “closing unintended loopholes to recover lost revenue is one of the best ways to offset the cost of needed tax reform. Closing this loophole, staunching the flow of capital overseas, and restoring competitiveness for this important domestic industry is a win for all.”

Counterintelligence Now Riskier Than Terrorism, Intelligence Officials Report

National Security

During a Senate hearing yesterday, top U.S. intelligence officials released a new threat assessment report that outlines the top risks to national security. While cybersecurity remains the greatest threat for a second year, the report said dangers from foreign spies and from leakers have surpassed terrorism as threats.

This revision follows a year that illustrated just how vulnerable the United States is to counterintelligence—both foreign spying and the leaking of information. In May, the Defense Department explicitly accused the Chinese government of launching cyberattacks against the U.S. government computer systems and defense contractors “in a deliberate, government-developed strategy to steal intellectual property and gain strategic advantage.”

According to Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), chair of the House Intelligence Committee, the theft of proprietary information and technology by the Chinese constitutes “the largest transfer of wealth illegally in the world’s history” and has cost the U.S. an estimated $2 trillion. “We are in a cyber war today,” Rogers said in July. “Most Americans don’t know it. They go about their lives happily. But we are in a cyber war today.”

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper also pointed to leaks from National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden to illustrate the danger posed by the exposure of classified information. Terrorists are “going to school” on the information revealed, he claimed, calling Snowden’s act the “most damaging theft of intelligence information in our history.”

According to Clapper’s report, the top five threats from 2013 and for 2014 are:

2013

  1. Cyber-attacks, cyber-espionage
  2. Terrorism and Transnational Organized Crime
  3. WMD Proliferation
  4. Counterintelligence
  5. Counterspace (attacks on satellites, communications)

2014

  1. Cyber-attacks, cyber-espionage
  2. Counterintelligence
  3. Terrorism
  4. WMD Proliferation
  5. Counterspace

Protect Outdoor Workers from Extreme Cold

During this winter’s extreme cold spells, caused by a polar vortex creating frigid temperatures, workers are at added risk of cold stress. Increased wind speeds can cause air temperature to feel even colder. This increases the risk of cold stress for those working outdoors—including snow cleanup crews, construction workers, postal workers, police officers, recreational workers, firefighters, miners, baggage handlers, landscapers and support workers for the oil and gas industry.

The U.S. Department of Labor notes that what constitutes extreme cold and its effects can vary across the country. In regions that are not used to winter weather, for example, near freezing temperatures are considered “extreme cold.” Because a cold environment forces the body to work harder to maintain its temperature, as temperatures drop below normal and wind speeds increase, heat can leave the body more rapidly.

Wind chill is the temperature felt by the body when air temperature and wind speed are combined. For example, when the air temperature is 40°F, and the wind speed is 35 mph, the effect on exposed skin like an air temperature of 28°F.

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Cold stress can occur when the skin temperature goes down and the internal body temperature (core temperature) drops. This can lead to serious health problems and also cause tissue damage and possibly death. Exposed workers are vulnerable to hypothermia, frostbite and trench foot, the DOL said.

Some risk factors that contribute to cold stress are:

  • Wetness and dampness, dressing improperly and exhaustion
  • Predisposing health conditions such as hypertension, hypothyroidism and diabetes
  • Poor physical conditioning

The DOL recommends that employees working in frigid temperatures avoid alcohol, smoking and some medications to help minimize risks.

The best way to avoid cold stress is by wearing proper clothing. The type of fabric makes a difference as well. For example, cotton loses its insulation value when it becomes wet, while wool, silk and most synthetics retain their insulation even when wet.

Here are some clothing tips for workers in cold environments:

• For better insulation wear at least three layers of clothing: An inner layer of wool, silk or synthetic to wick moisture away from the body; a middle layer of wool or synthetic to provide insulation even when wet; and an outer wind and rain protection layer that allows some ventilation to prevent overheating.  Avoid tight fitting clothing.

• Wear a hat or hood to help keep the entire body warm.

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Hats reduce the amount of body heat that escapes from the head.

• Wear insulated boots or other appropriate footwear.

• Keep extra clothing (including underwear) handy in case clothing gets wet.

• Do not underestimate the wetting effects of perspiration. Venting of the body’s sweat and heat can be more important than protection from rain or snow, according to the DOL.

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) also issues guidelines. For example, because it is easy to become dehydrated in cold weather, employers can provide warm sweetened liquids to workers. Additionally:

• If possible, schedule heavy work for the warmer part of the day. Assign workers to tasks in pairs so that they can monitor each other for signs of cold stress.

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• Allow workers to interrupt their work if they are extremely uncomfortable.

• Give workers frequent breaks in warm areas.

• Acclimatize new workers and those returning after time away from work by gradually increasing their workload. Also allow more frequent breaks in warm areas to help them build tolerance for working in the cold environment.

These and other safety measures should be incorporated into the organization’s health and safety plan.

Super Bowl Prop Bets and Monte Carlo Simulation

This Sunday, the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks will square off in Super Bowl XLVIII. For many fans, making a wager of some sort—such as betting on the point spread, the over-under, a family/office pool, etc.—is a part of the experience. Most bets are relatively straightforward; however, if you’ve ever been to Las Vegas to watch the big game, you’ll find Super Bowl wagers are taken to an entirely different—and more complex—level. In addition to traditional wagers, you’ll find an almost unlimited number of proposition—or “prop”—bets that can stray into more peripheral aspects of the game.  Consider the following prop bets from last year’s Super Bowl between the Ravens and 49ers:

  • Who will win Super Bowl MVP? (Winning bet: Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco at 11/4 odds)
  • What color will the Gatorade (or liquid) be that is dumped on the winning coach? (Winning bet: Clear/water at 7/4 odds)
  • Will Alicia Keys’ rendition of the national anthem be over/under 2:15? (Winning bet: Over, at 2:42)

One of the more talked-about on-the-field wagers of this year’s game centers around how many touchdown passes Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning will throw against the Seahawks vaunted defense. During the regular season, Manning set single-season NFL records for touchdown passes (55) and passing yards (5,477) and led Denver to 603 regular season points, which is also a record. Countering that attack will be the Seahawks, which featured the league’s stingiest defense. Here’s a comparison of Manning and the Seahawks’ per-game passing stats:

 

Manning

Seahawks

 Passing yards/game : 342.3  Passing yards allowed/game:  172
 Passing TDs/game: 3.4  Passing TDs allowed/game: 1

 

“If you really spend your time on it, I think you can make money on prop bets,” says Dr. Wayne Winston,  a professor of operations and decision technologies at the University of Houston Bauer College of Business and a nationally respected sports probabilities expert.  On his website, Winston offers a variety of sports probabilities, and he’s even written a book, Mathletics: How Gamblers, Managers, and Sports Enthusiasts Use Mathematics in Baseball, Basketball, and Football, that breaks down how probabilities are utilized in athletics.

So how many touchdowns will Manning throw in the Super Bowl? Las Vegas has its opinion, and Winston—who ran 10,000 simulations using Monte Carlo simulation—has his. As the table below indicates, Winston and Vegas agree most closely on whether or not Manning will throw zero or one touchdown pass. However, the gap widens—with Winston having less confidence in Manning—when calculating the possibility of two, three or four TD passes.

 

Manning Super Bowl TD passes Winston’s Estimate Vegas’ Estimate
0 9.53% 9.09%
1 22.40% 22.22%
2 26.33% 33.33%
3 20.63% 28.57%
4 12.12% 18.18%
5 or more 8.70% 9.09%

 

 

Obviously, such predictions aren’t an exact science, but it is interesting to see how probabilities can differ, based on the data inputs utilized. And if your inputs are better than Vegas, then you may stand a chance to come out ahead. That said, Winston hasn’t determined how many times Manning will utter the phrase “Omaha” at the line of scrimmage on Sunday. Not surprisingly, Vegas has considered it, and has the over/under at 27.5.