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Switzerland, Norway Rank Highest in Supply Chain Resilience

Plummeting oil prices, natural catastrophes and political disruption in a borderless business environment are some of the threats to the resilience of countries that can impact supply chains, according to the 2016 FM Global Resilience Index, which aggregates data to help companies identify their key supply chain risks. The Index ranked the resilience of 130 countries to supply chain disruption based on drivers in three categories: economic, risk quality and supply chain factors.

This year’s top-rated country, Switzerland, traded places with Norway—a reflection of Norway’s drop in oil revenue at a time of falling crude oil prices. Rounding out the top 10 in the Index, in descending order, are Ireland, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, the central United States, Canada, Australia and Denmark.

The lowest-ranked country in 2016 is Venezuela (ranked 130) for the second year in a row. It is followed in ascending order by the Dominican Republic, Kyrgyz Republic, Nicaragua, Mauritania, Ukraine, Egypt, Algeria, Jamaica and Honduras.

For the second consecutive year, Ukraine (ranked 125, down from 107) was among the countries with the biggest drop, reflecting the high degree of tension the remains within the country as well as with Russia (ranked 75).

FM Global also noted:

Venezuela’s position at the bottom reflects its exposure to the natural hazards of wind and earthquake, perceptions of its lack of control of corruption and poor infrastructure and its ill-perceived local supplier quality.

France (ranked 19) and the United Kingdom (ranked 20) retained their positions from last year, while Germany (ranked 4) rose by two places.

The United States is segmented into three regions to reflect disparate natural hazards exposure:

Region 1, encompassing much of the East Coast, is ranked 11 in the Index.

Region 2, primarily the Western United States, is ranked 21.

Region 3, which includes most of the central portion of the country, is ranked 7 in the Index.
FM Global-infographic

Phishing: Understanding Your Cyber Adversaries

Nearly two years ago, an infamous incident occurred where stolen pictures of celebrities flooded the internet. Originally, it was thought that this was due to an iCloud vulnerability that allowed a brute force attack. But it now turns out it was because of a simple social engineering phishing hack.

Phishing usually involves sending mass emails that masquerade as legitimate communications, coming from a trustworthy source like a big bank or credit card company. The phisher seeks to trick the recipient into clicking on a link or opening an attachment that downloads malware onto the victim’s computer. The malware can then be used for criminal activity including theft of sensitive data or money. While phishers may send thousands of emails, all they need are a few or even one individual to fall for their trick to get into the IT system. It’s easy to forget that security threats aren’t always the work of sophisticated technology geniuses with malevolent intent. As in the case of the celebrity photos, the method was relatively simple. However, it still caused reputational damage.

Cyber attacks don’t appear out of nowhere.

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At the beginning and right through development and attack, humans are involved. Recently, we profiled half a dozen types of attackers. We call them the “Unusual Suspects.” An attack might start with the Professional working in the digital shadows seeking to make the most money possible from the damage they cause. Then you’ve got the Mules and Getaways who are on the front line, and will be the first to get caught when the law comes knocking. There are also Activists and Nation State Actors who are looking to change the world or steal information on behalf of their country’s government. And then there’s the Insider leaking sensitive information accidentally or on purpose with malicious intent.

bae - the usual suspects

These are all just some of personas BAE Systems recently identified as key threats to businesses and without them, cybercrime can’t exist.

Wising up to phishing attacks

In the IT space, one of the most common ways cyber criminals target employees of a company is through phishing. In the aforementioned celebrity photos case, court documents said Ryan Collins, 36, of Pennsylvania, hacked more than 100 people. According to reports in the press he used email names like ‘e-mail.protection318@icloud.com’ and asked for password details.

With these credentials, the hacker was able to go through email accounts looking for photos and videos, managing to get into around 50 iCloud accounts and 72 Gmail accounts mostly belonging to celebrities. It’s quite easy to imagine the damage hackers could cause if they got hold of corporate emails – think of the damage the 2014 Sony hack inflicted.

You can’t patch a human

Employees will always be a weak spot, and clever social engineering is leading to more examples of how this weakness can be exploited. The effects can be devastating. For example: a company that collects credit card data from its customers is at risk of a major data breach from a single employee clicking on an email leading to a website laced with malware. The financial and/or reputational damage and the related fines or compensation claims that result could be significant.

At its core, combating social engineering is a human problem that requires human solutions. In certain cases victims may violate policies, but it may often be the case that the rules or training were not clear enough for the employee to know they were doing something that could have serious consequences. And because humans are behind social engineering attacks, they are capable of evolving, matching the way the business world is using technology.

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To mitigate against social engineering attacks, there needs to be security awareness and culture from top to bottom. This might mean ongoing training for employees to understand the threats, as well as the right policies and procedures in place. This helps employees understand the risk from social engineering and what role they have in preventing it. Remember, this all has to be done in tandem with putting the right technology in place.

Defeating the Unusual Suspects

Defending against cyber threats is all well and good, but what about catching these Unusual Suspects? This is difficult, because they use sophisticated tactics to escape detection–they are located all over the world, and use secure software to escape detection and remain anonymous, often routing communications through multiple countries to avoid being caught.

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Fortunately this is a case where human fallibility is a good thing–criminals will make mistakes and leave digital finger prints that sophisticated analytics and forensic analysis can pick up. Finally don’t underestimate the power of human ingenuity–thanks to the efforts of security professionals, we’re finally getting to a point where the investigation of online crime is being slowly demystified and defenses put in place to mitigate the threat.

A Trump Presidency Poses Top Risk to Global Economy

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, a Donald Trump presidency poses one of the greatest current global risks. Indeed, Trump ranks as the sixth overall potential risk to the global economy, and based on a 25-point scale, the research firm rated the risk approximately equal to the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilizing the global economy.

The EIU, research and analysis sister company to the Economist, ranks risks based on both impact and probability, with a Trump presidency presenting considerable potential impact, but moderate probability. The EIU’s assessment focused in particular on Trump’s hostility toward free trade (most notably NAFTA), aggressive rhetoric on China, and “exceptionally right-wing stance” on the Middle East and jihadi terrorism.

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“In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war—and at the least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the US and 11 other American and Asian states signed in February 2016,” EIU analysts wrote. “His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the U.S.) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond.”

The firm concluded with a prediction that, while it believes Trump will most likely lose to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, that probability could change in the event of a terrorist attack on U.S. soil or a sudden economic downturn.

In such a scenario, the trickle-down effect within the American political machine poses noteworthy risk as well.

“Innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr. Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress,” the report says.

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But “such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking.”

The firm’s overall top 10 risks by point ranking are:

economist intelligence unit top global economy risks

Brussels Bombings Highlight New Risk Realities

Belgium map
The deadly terrorist bombings in Brussels this week have elicited an outpouring of support for the victims and for Belgium, along with renewed rage and consternation regarding ISIS. These are predictable reactions.

What these acts also elicited, I’ve noticed, are numerous comments from many outlets that the attacks were not surprising.

The BBC, in fact, said the bombings were “not a surprise” and security experts chimed in with similar assessments. Even Belgians themselves admit that the attack wasn’t shocking—Prime Minister, Charles Michel, lamented that “what we feared, has happened.” Think about how much has changed in less than a generation. Now, when the capital of the EU and NATO becomes a war zone, many react as though this is business as usual.

When it comes to political violence and warfare, we (or at least Western Europe) are living in a brave new world.

In fact, research I’ve conducted in recent weeks for a RIMS Executive Report on political risk confirms how much the paradigm has changed. Political risk experts I interviewed have been emphasizing this point. “I think it is truly a distinctive point in world affairs,” said one. Another confessed, “I’ve been doing this for nearly 20 years, and this is by far the most unstable, tenuous, deteriorating…risk environment I’ve ever seen.”

These sentiments are based on more than ISIS. Recent developments include the Ukraine civil war, the migrant crisis, deterioration of large swaths of the Middle East, tensions in the South China Sea, a weakening Chinese economy and Brazil’s political crisis. All contribute to a consensus that things are changing.

For the risk community, a big change is formerly reliable standards of which parts of the world are stable and which are unstable, such as developed economies versus developing and first-world versus second- and third-world. Now more than ever, risk managers considering the security of global operations need to examine a country’s vital signs rather than rely on conventional wisdom about stability. And if mass-casualty terror attacks are the new normal for Western Europe, a number of risk professionals will need to become better acquainted with the realities of political violence.

To end on a positive note, however, we do not have to believe the sky is falling. While terrorist attacks are brutal and unfortunate, it is consoling to think about the odds of being a victim. As data nerds are happy to point out, a person is much more likely to meet his or her demise from bathtubs, dogs and food poisoning. The Post has reported that you are more likely to be crushed by furniture than snuffed out by ISIS.