Category Archives: Terrorism

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Difficulty in Modeling for Terrorism

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The following is an excerpt from the RIMS executive report “Terrorism Risk Insurance Act: The Commercial Consumer’s Perspective.” The report is available for download here.

For any insurer to operate successfully and avoid going out of business, it must be able to accurately estimate the probability of its losses, the severity of those losses, and then determine the amount of premium that must be charged to cover those losses should they occur. Historical data from past events is used to predict the losses from future events and pric­ing is set accordingly.

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Even extraordinary events like Hurricane Sandy or the recent tornadoes in Oklahoma, while harder to accurately estimate, can be predicted to a certain degree based on historical data and experi­ence. Terrorism risk, however, differs substantially from these other risks in several different ways.

Terrorism risks lack certain elements possessed by other types of risk. Typically insurable risks will include the following elements: losses must be due to chance (accidental) and the risk must be predictable. The first element is lacking with terrorism risk because losses from terrorist attacks are not accidental, but rather the result of deliberate human behavior and action. For a terrorist attack to occur a plot must be hatched and then executed by one or more individuals. The motives, targets and actions of plotters are constantly changing and their motives are frequently affected by government actions that modelers and insurers are not privy to. These factors make modeling nearly impossible.

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Terrorism risk is also inherently unpredictable. Insurers can accurately predict which parts of the country will be hit by hurricanes or tornadoes and also what the anticipated losses will be based on the severity of an event. They are able to do this based on historical experience and data that thankfully does not exist for terrorism risk because of the rarity of terrorist events occurring.

The accuracy of weather predictions is enhanced by studying the “near misses” and variances in weather that resulted in a storm missing a tar­get or having its impact minimized. Information about “near misses” or foiled attacks is highly classified and not available to modelers. This lack of data, and the randomness of where terrorist events have occurred or were planned to occur, makes predicting such events impossible.

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Predicting the severity of losses from such an event is also difficult as losses vary significantly based on the scale of the attack. For example, losses from the 9/11 attacks have been estimated to be $35 billion while preliminary estimates of business losses from the Boston bombings are closer to $10 million. There are some recent attempts to model terror­ism events, however, they require making specific assumptions about the method of the attempt, the volume or size of chemicals or weapons and the specific site that will be attacked. While this information may be use­ful for strengthening a specific property’s risk of loss, it is not useful in attempting to assess potential risk exposures for a wider geographic area.

PCI Poll Finds Public Support for TRIA

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Nearly 68% of likely voters favor extending the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) beyond December 31, 2014 according to a poll released by the Property Casualty Insurance Association of America (PCI).

The poll asked likely voters various questions relating to TRIA and the economic implications of a terrorist attack. In addition to showing public support for an extension of the TRIA program, the poll clearly shows a belief that the federal government should have some responsibility for the economic losses associated with a terrorist attack. Over 72% of those polled believe that a combination of the federal government and private insurance companies should be responsible for the costs from injuries to workers and property damage in the case of a terrorist attack.

Over 90% believe that protecting against losses from terrorist attacks against the United States should be at least in part a federal responsibility.

Many in the insurance industry, including RIMS, have been arguing in favor of a long term extension of TRIA, but this poll presents the first real evidence that there is a support among the general public as well. “We saw remarkable agreement among voters that the responsibility for the costs from injuries to workers and property damages from a terrorist attack should be shared amongst the federal government and private insurance companies. We also saw a true sense of patriotism, there was no division amongst rural and urban areas. Citizens understand the national economic implications of a terrorist attack and the importance of having a plan in place,” said Marguerite Tortorello, PCI’s senior vice president public affairs.

While the results do seem to bolster the arguments made by TRIA advocates, it does show little public awareness of the program. When asked whether it was true that TRIA was created after 9/11 only 32.7% of those surveyed responded that it was true while 26.7% responded false and 40.5% did not respond. This isn’t too surprising as the public tends to lack awareness of government program specifics. On the positive side, once informed that TRIA was in fact created, 73.2% stated that they supported the decision to create the TRIA program.

TRIA: Not Just a Big City Issue

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The following is an excerpt from the RIMS executive report “Terrorism Risk Insurance Act: The Commercial Consumer’s Perspective.” The report is available for download here.

Opponents and skeptics of TRIA express concern that the program is tailored to benefit only major metropolitan cities such as New York City, Chicago, San Francisco, etc.; however, major cities are not the only ar­eas facing the very real threat of terrorism, as the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing made evident. Additionally, while the recent attacks in Boston occurred in a major city, they did not occur in a major financial center or area that would be seen as exclusive to such a city. They occurred during a marathon race and city celebration; similar events take place throughout the country on almost a daily basis.

On January 31, 2012, the National Consortium for the Study of Ter­rorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) released its “Hot Spots of Terrorism and Other Crimes in the United States, 1970 to 2008” report to the Department of Homeland Security. This report found that more than 2,600 terrorist events, defined as “the threatened or actual use of il­legal force and violence by a non-state actor to attain political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation,” occurred in the United States during those years.

On April 29, 2010, the Heritage Foundation published a list of thirty known terrorist plots that had been foiled in the United States following 9/11. These plot targets included a shopping mall in Columbus, Ohio; gas pipelines in Wyoming; and a federal building in Springfield, Illinois. This again shows that major cities are not the only targets of terrorists.

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On September 8, 2011, The Daily Beast published 10 additional foiled plots that had occurred after April, 2010, one of which was a plot to target Christmas tree lighting in Portland, Oregon.19

These lists and studies are highlighted because they show that major cit­ies are not the only terrorist targets in the United States. Any venue that brings together a large group of people is a potential target for terrorism whether it be a sports venue, a hospital, a school or university, a large commercial building, a utility, place of worship or Christmas tree light­ing.

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Businesses and organizations, whether in New York or Columbus, Ohio, need adequate terrorism coverage and the market stability TRIA provides to manage that risk.

TRIA Advocates Testify Before NYC Council

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On Monday, various industry groups, including RIMS, provided comments to the New York City Council Committee on State and Federal Legislation. The hearing was held to discuss proposed NYC Council resolution 1806-2013 which calls on the federal government to enact a long-term extension of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA).

Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) kicked off the hearing by strongly expressing her continued support for the program. Rep. Maloney is a co-sponsor of legislation that would extend the TRIA program for an additional five years beyond December 31, 2014. She urged councilmembers to take an active role in reaching out to other local governments throughout the country to build support for an extension. Rep. Maloney made it clear that TRIA is not a program for New York City but rather a program that provides stability to the entire nation’s economy.

Rep. Maloney was followed by a panel consisting of the Alliance for Downtown New York, the Real Estate Board of NY, the Partnership for New York City, the Building Owners and Managers Association of Greater New York, and the Council of New York Cooperatives and Condominiums. All five groups expressed strong support for the TRIA program and the potential devastation to New York City’s economy were the program allowed to expire. Andrew Breslaw, vice president of communications and marketing for the Alliance for Downtown New York, argued that billions, possibly trillions, of dollars worth of commercial loans would be in technical default if TRIA is not renewed beyond 2014.

The remaining groups who testified also did so in favor of a long-term extension. These groups included Willis North America, the Council of Independent Agents & Brokers, AIG, and Marsh. Comments submitted on behalf of RIMS reinforced many of the arguments made by the other advocates. “Terrorism is one of those risks that must be considered in today’s world and insurance coverage for acts of terrorism is a necessary component of mitigating losses from a potential event,” wrote RIMS Board and NYC Chapter Member Lori Seidenberg. “Availability and affordability of this coverage continues to be vital to commercial insurance consumers, but perhaps even more importantly, to the economy as a whole.”

The committee did not take a vote on the resolution during the hearing, but it was clear that it will be supported. While New York City’s support of TRIA will come as no surprise, and may not have a huge impact on the Republican-led U.S. House of Representatives, the hearing did serve to bring added attention to the issue at a time when the House appears to have placed it on the backburner. The issue deserves more urgency from the House as the longer the program’s fate remains in flux, the more uncertainty creeps into the market.