Category Archives: Supply Chain

New Climate Change Report Highlights Risk Management Strategies

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Global Warming

This week, a new report from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change summarized the ways climate change is already impacting individuals and ecosystems worldwide and strongly cautioned that conditions are getting worse. Focusing on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, the panel’s latest work offers insight on economic loss and prospective supply chain interruptions that should be of particular note for risk managers—and repeatedly highlights principles of the discipline as critical approaches going forward.

Key risks the report identified with high confidence, span sectors and regions include:

i. Risk of death, injury, ill-health, or disrupted livelihoods in low-lying coastal zones and small island developing states and other small islands, due to storm surges, coastal flooding, and sea-level rise.

ii. Risk of severe ill-health and disrupted livelihoods for large urban populations due to inland flooding in some regions.

iii. Systemic risks due to extreme weather events leading to breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services such as electricity, water supply, and health and emergency services.

iv. Risk of mortality and morbidity during periods of extreme heat, particularly for vulnerable urban populations and those working outdoors in urban or rural areas.

v. Risk of food insecurity and the breakdown of food systems linked to warming, drought, flooding, and precipitation variability and extremes, particularly for poorer populations in urban and rural settings.

vi. Risk of loss of rural livelihoods and income due to insufficient access to drinking and irrigation water and reduced agricultural productivity, particularly for farmers and pastoralists with minimal capital in semi-arid regions.

vii. Risk of loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for coastal livelihoods, especially for fishing communities in the tropics and the Arctic.

viii. Risk of loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for livelihoods.

The report highlights more sector-specific risks, and one table even highlight the panel’s perception of the role of risk management in the future of climate change policy and planning:

IPCC Chart

On the whole, the report lays out many familiar risk management approaches and how they can be best applied to evaluating the risks of climate change and how to mitigate them. Perhaps the environment is warming to risk-informed decision-making as well.

Are Drone Cargo Ships the Next Step in Supply Chain Automation?

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Rolls Royce Drone Ships

Ahoy, robots!

The $375 billion shipping industry, which carries 90% of world trade, is next in line for drones to take over—at least, that’s what Rolls-Royce Holdings is betting on. The London-based engine manufacturer’s Blue Ocean development team has already set up a virtual-reality prototype in its Norwegian office that simulates 360-degree views from a vessel’s bridge.

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The company hopes these advanced camera systems will eventually allow captains in control centers on land to direct crewless ships. The E.U. is funding a $4.8 million study on the technology, and researchers are preparing a prototype for simulated sea trials next year.

“A growing number of vessels are already equipped with cameras that can see at night and through fog and snow—better than the human eye, and more ships are fitted with systems to transmit large volumes of data,” said one Rolls-Royce spokesperson. “Given that the technology is in place, is now the time to move some operations ashore? Is it better to have a crew of 20 sailing in a gale in the North Sea, or say five people in a control room on shore?”

Crew costs of $3,299 a day account for about 44% of total operating expenses for a large container ship, industry accountant and consultant Moore Stephens LLP told Bloomberg News. By loading more cargo and replacing the bridge and other systems that support the crew, such as electricity, air conditioning, water and sewage, ships can cut costs and boost revenue, claims Oskar Levander, Rolls-Royce’s vice president of innovation in marine engineering and technology. The ships would be 5% lighter before loading cargo and would burn 12% to 15% less fuel, he reported.

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Unmanned ships would require captains to operate them remotely and people to repair and unload them in port, but the lack of crew at sea could change the landscape of piracy. Without people to take hostage, the risks would greatly reduce—as would the need for for kidnap and ransom insurance premiums. The material being transported, however, could be even more vulnerable without a human line of defense.

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Further, the remote operating system opens the door to digital hijacking from hackers or cybercriminals.

Currently, human error—most notably tied to fatigue—causes most maritime accidents, according to Allianz. But, as the 600,000-member International Transport Workers’ Federation is quick to point out, humans are also the first line of defense in a field plagued by unpredictable conditions. “The human element is one of the first lines of defense in the event of machinery failure and the kind of unexpected and sudden changes of conditions in which the world’s seas specialize,” Dave Heindel, chairman of the ITF’s seafarers’ section, told Bloomberg Businessweek.

Drone cargo ships would represent the latest part of a rapidly automating supply chain. As Wired pointed out, as customers’ desire for ever-more-instant gratification mounts and companies like Amazon find ways to drastically cut shipping costs with technology, consumer pressure may make this too tempting a development to pass up.

Trends and Predictions for Retailers

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Last year, retail and consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies faced challenges stemming from evolving regulatory compliance, brand exposure, reputational risk and increasingly complex global supply chains. No doubt 2014 will prove to be a pivotal year for organizations to demonstrate their focus and commitment to strong governance, risk management, and compliance in order to truly emerge as leaders. Here is a look at some top trends that have influenced the industry, and a few predictions that will shape the year ahead.

2013 Key Trends:

Increased Volume and Complexity of Regulations. In 2013, the retail/CPG industry faced a flurry of new and amended regulations spanning environmental compliance, conflict minerals reporting, product safety, data privacy, anti-corruption, product packaging and labeling to name a few.

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Ensuring compliance and staying one step ahead of regulators requires that retail and CPG organizations establish more centralized and collaborative compliance programs.

Managing the Supplier Ecosystem. We saw that environmental, man-made, and human rights issues can threaten the financial stability and reputation of retail and CPG organizations. Establishing a unified view of the organization and its entire supplier ecosystem requires consistency and transparency, which can be achieved only through stronger due diligence, monitoring, and reporting processes.

Focus on Collaboration. In response to increased compliance mandates, and added complexity throughout the supply chain, internal business functions have begun converging and collaborating in new ways. A strong, compliant, and risk-aware organization brings together the right people, the right skill sets, and necessary resources against a shared vision, mission, and purpose.

2014 Predictions:

Rising Importance of Reputation. Non-compliance, fines, product recalls, bribery and corruption allegations, customer activism, factory fires, and health and safety issues have put many retail and CPG companies in the hot seat.

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These incidents not only play out over front-page headlines, but can spread virally across social media sites in a matter of minutes. In 2014, building and maintaining an organization’s reputation will become a matter of survival.

Complying with the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The ACA impacts retail companies that employ a significant number of temporary workers. According to the ACA, health insurance must be provided to full time employees who work at least 30 hours per week. In the retail industry, however, employees who work at least 40 hours per week have traditionally been considered full-time. Overcoming this discrepancy will require new policies and processes that will impact employees, human resources teams, and compliance executives alike.

Investments in Technology. As operations expand and supplier ecosystems become more diverse, organizations will be faced with new opportunities and new challenges. We will see organizations continue to focus on integrating the activities of multiple functions.

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Investing in new technologies and tools to help integrate quality customer service, regulatory compliance, supply chain governance and security can help organizations realize greater efficiencies, enhanced agility and improved business performance.

CVS Announces Plan to Stop Selling Cigarettes

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CVS to Stop Selling Cigarettes

On Feb. 5, CVS Caremark Chief Executive Larry Merlo said, “We’ve come to the decision that cigarettes have no place in an environment where healthcare is being delivered.” The company, he announced, will remove all cigarette and tobacco products from its 7,600 pharmacies nationwide by Oct. 1. The move is expensive, with up to billion in projected lost sales.

But CVS is betting on the long-run gains from doubling down on brand reputation and helping customers to live—and shop—far longer.

President Barack Obama personally took the time out to praise CVS, saying in a statement that the move will help wider efforts to “reduce tobacco-related deaths, cancer, and heart disease, as well as bring down healthcare costs.”

“CVS is now one of a small group of companies that have realized that their reputation is the most valuable asset they have and that building a stronger reputation by avoiding risks to that reputation can create a significant competitive advantage,” said Paul Argenti, professor of corporate communications at Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business, in a column for the Harvard Business Review. “From the White House to the American Lung Association, CVS has received kudos for what seems to be a focus on shared value with society rather than the reckless pursuit of revenue at any cost.”

While CVS stock initially dropped the day of the announcement, shares have since risen 2.3%, success further bolstered when the country’s largest drugstore chain reported 2013 revenue of $126.8 billion—up 3% on healthy growth for drug plans and in-store pharmacies offset by weak growth in front-of-store sales.

“Its profit comes increasingly from health plans, which aren’t keen on carcinogens,” Jack Hough wrote in Barron’s. “Consider: CVS’ tobacco decision is expected to subtract six to nine cents from its yearly earnings per share. But a prescription deal with the Federal Employee Health Program, which expires at year’s end, is worth 16 cents to 21 cents a share, estimates investment bank Mizuho Securities. For CVS, a good chance at renewal just became better, and there’s plenty more business to be won.”

In Forbes’ CMO Shift blog, brand consultant Scott Davis wrote:

The $2 billion decision to boldly dump tobacco sends CVS’ boldest signal of commitment to the brand and to where it sees its future growth; it’s an unprecedented move and one that is wickedly smart. CVS is putting its money where its brand is, betting that this first mover advantage will pay off. I say “first mover” because no one truly owns health and wellness. Sixteen thousand health and wellness apps were downloaded last year.

Over $1.4 billion was spent by people trying to learn more about the topic. The overall category is heading to $1 trillion in the next 3-5 years and the timing is right for someone to step in and lead the dialog and become the Amazon of health and wellness. Why not CVS?

Indeed, CVS has spent considerable time and money extending the legacy of pharmacists as community health experts by adding over 800 MinuteClinic walk-in facilities. In doing so, the company has become the largest U.S. pharmacy healthcare provider.

The chain’s competitors are also branching into anti-smoking efforts as they expand their role in the wellness market. Walgreens recently unveiled a partnership with GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare to launch a free, Internet-based smoking cessation program called Sponsorship to Quit.

Overall U.S. cigarette sales fell 31.3% from 2003 to 2013, according to Euromonitor International. Many health officials hope that the move will help continue to decrease the number of smokers and smoking-related deaths in the U.S. “I think CVS recognized that it was just paradoxical to be both a seller of deadly products and a healthcare provider,” U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Thomas Frieden told Reuters.

Working to build and maintain a strong reputation also boosts the bottom line. Studies from Argenti and a range of other researchers suggest that companies with a strong reputation enjoy price advantages, being able to negotiate lower prices with suppliers and higher charges to customers. They can also recruit better employees, have more stable revenues and, “when something bad happens, they are given the benefit of the doubt by their stakeholders.” Further, “highly reputed companies are more stable, which means they have higher market valuation and stock price over the long term and greater loyalty of their investors, which leads to less volatility,” according to Argenti.

Convenience stores account for 75% of cigarette sales nationwide, so the tobacco industry has yet to express concern about prospective losses from drugstore sales. But Dr. Richard Wender of the American Cancer Society said CVS’s move would have an effect. “Every time we make it more difficult to purchase a pack of cigarettes, someone quits,” he told Reuters. So far, CVS is betting on that for patients’ health, and its own.