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Q&A: Cape Town’s ‘Day Zero’

On March 22, annual World Water Day will be especially relevant, as the United Nations and its co-sponsors hope to raise global awareness of water risks—particularly in Cape Town, South Africa. As we previously reported, a diminishing water supply is that city’s top priority, as it is counting down to a possible “Day Zero” (which had been set for July 9, but the City has stopped providing a date), when it could effectively become the first major city to run dry.

One of World Water Day’s partners is World Wide Fund For Nature South Africa (WWF-SA), an arm of what was formerly known as the World Wildlife Fund. Christine Colvin, senior manager of Freshwater for WWF-SA, recently discussed Cape Town’s struggles and how other major cities and businesses can learn from the preparedness plan and efforts to avoid a total drought.

Risk Management Monitor: Cape Town, which has 4 million residents, has a preparedness plan in effect that includes rationing among 200 water distribution points for 25 liters per person. Do you feel this plan is sustainable?

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Christine Colvin: At this stage, the general consensus is that Day Zero is not as imminent a threat as it was earlier in the year, and in all likelihood, there will be some rain and augmentation schemes will start to come online before dams drop to the critical 13.5% (which would activate the disaster plan).

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Consequently, the major

push is to encourage citizens to stay within their current daily limit of 50 liters of water per person, per day to see us through to the rainy season and beyond. If we are able to achieve this objective, the hope is that we should push out Day Zero as far as possible, thus buying the city time to bring on augmentation schemes.

RMM: How could Cape Town officials explore nature-based solutions (this year’s World Water Day campaign) to its water challenges?

Colvin: Ecological infrastructure is the foundation of water security and the first link in the water value chain. If our catchments are healthy and functional they deliver better quality, more reliable yields of water into our dams and aquifers. If they are invaded with alien vegetation or degraded by over-grazing or over-burning then they yield less water and more silt that will eventually destroy any downstream infrastructure we build to deliver water to our homes and farms. WWF-SA actively advocates the protection of water source areas through, among other things, water stewardship and catchment clearance of alien vegetation and has actively communicated this approach to the City of Cape Town during this drought period.

In our communications to the general public, we also encourage better stewardship of existing natural water sources such as groundwater and rivers, and promoting a water-wise culture. Our stewardship work in the Western Cape, the province in which Cape Town is located, focuses strongly on the agricultural sector which is a key industry for the region.

RMM: What steps can a major city take to prepare for a drought?

Colvin: Our Wednesday Water File on international case studies highlights many pertinent actions, perhaps best summarized in the Australian example:

  • Invest in fixing leaking infrastructure—one of the most cost-effective measures to improve water supplies
  • Introduce a demand management program which includes strict new legal requirements on business and domestic water use, coupled with a major education campaign
  • Diversify water supplies so if one source fails others can be drawn on, among them: dams, desalination, recycled water, rainwater tanks, groundwater, and storm water harvesting
  • Create a water grid which links major regional water supplies so water can be moved to where it is needed 

RMM: How is World Water Day raising awareness to the situation in Cape Town?

Colvin: While water is top of mind in Cape Town, the intention is to remind all South Africans that we live in a water-stressed country and the protection of strategic Water Source Areas and their natural capital is a national project. Water source areas are particularly important—making up 8% of South Africa’s land area but delivering 50% of our river flow to the rest of the country. Good management of these high rainfall mountainous headwater areas delivers a high return on investment downstream.

World Water Day is an important time to reflect on the relationship between water and nature.

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Many, but not all, residents of Cape Town are now aware of the “new normal” in which we are likely to experience much drier periods and have to conserve water but it remains vital to reinforce the message that water does not come from a tap—it comes from nature.

Copycat Threats Escalate After Fla. School Shooting

Numbers of bomb threats and false alarms following the deadly Feb.

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14 shooting at the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida have jumped, causing fear and panic across the U.S. and creating havoc for school personnel and law enforcement.

The threats are mostly carried out by students too young to realize the repercussion of their comments—which most often are posted on social media sites.

The sharp rise in false alarms, from 10 to about 70 a day, has left school administrators and authorities with the precarious job of determining the threat’s credibility. Worried parents often fear sending their children to school.

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The New York Times reported:

Every school day in the week after Feb. 14, the day of the attack at the Florida high school, at least 50 threats or violent incidents at schools were reported across the country, according to the Educator’s School Safety Network, an advocacy organization that has tracked news reports of threats and violence since 2016. Normally, the group records an average of 10 to 12 incidents a day.

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The group’s count includes many incidents that turn out to be false alarms or hoaxes.

Since the shooting, Texas has had the most threats, with 55 reports, followed by Ohio, California, Florida and Pennsylvania, according to data from the Educator’s School Safety Network, which tracks such incidents and also trains schools on how to handle them. Because of the threats, at least 33 schools closed and more than 15 others were locked down, according to the USA Today Network.

The threats have sparked a legal debate over what penalties kids should face. Authorities have yet to determine, however, how to deal with such threats, as an arrest could jeopardize a student’s future.

These types of threats are not new. Following the massacre at Columbine High School in 1999, hundreds of threats were sent to schools across the country, leading to more than 350 arrests. USA Today notes that even with jail as a penalty, threats have been widespread for decades and are not letting up.

Cape Town’s Water Shortage Approaching ‘Day Zero’

Risk Management magazine recently covered the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) 2018 Global Risks Report, in which environmental and technological risks dominate the worldwide threat landscape. The WEF ranked water crises as the fifth-highest risk based on impact, downgraded from the number one spot in 2015. But a diminishing water supply is certainly the top priority in Cape Town, South Africa, which is counting down to an increasingly imminent “Day Zero,” when it will effectively become the first major city to run dry.

In preparation for “Day Zero,” which is predicted to occur on July 9 (although it has been rescheduled several times), officials advised Cape Town’s 4 million residents to limit water use to 50 liters (13.

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2 gallons) per person per day, hoping to stretch the supply as far possible. Here’s how the Day Zero date has been calculated:

While assessing its own water supply risks, the Philly Voice equated that amount of water to “…a 90-second shower, two brushings of the teeth, one toilet flush, one cooked meal, a sink-full to wash dishes and a half-gallon of drinking water.”

Cape Town also has tariffs to help finance water and sanitation services and drive down demand of this basic human need. Nevertheless, the dams that supply most of the city’s water are only at 25% capacity as water usage reportedly remains well above targets. Once the dams reach 13.5% capacity, Cape Town intends to shut off the municipal water supply to all but essential services (like hospitals). Residents will then be allowed a daily 25-liter (6.6 gallon) water ration that they must collect from one of 200 water stations, which will be overseen by armed guards.

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Researchers from Stellenbosch University, located in the Western Cape province of South Africa provided a thorough evaluation of the preparedness plan’s feasibility, particularly during the post-Day Zero period. Taking a risk management approach of assuming no additional supply until the next rainy season, they called for strategies that either double the number of distribution points or increase the number of taps and water pressure at each of the 200 points:

“But even these strategies won’t help if Cape Town doesn’t address the reality of conflict and related delays. These are unpredictable and incalculable. They are also the greatest indication for why Day Zero should be avoided at all costs.”

As Risk Management Monitor reported in 2016, “the world’s largest underground water reserves in Africa, Eurasia and the Americas are under stress, with many of them being drawn down at unsustainable rates. Nearly two billion people rely on groundwater that is considered under threat.”

Water Foundry Founder and CEO Will Sarni recently offered a six-step strategy that other cities can take to avoid future Day Zeroes; the plan calls for the combined efforts of private sector leaders and public sector authorities:

“In building a solution, we call for a greater role for market forces balanced with regulatory oversight. In particular, the private sector has an essential role to play in devising technology and infrastructure solutions.

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But we have to incentivize companies to develop these solutions and then reward those that succeed. We applaud the initiatives of companies such as Coca-Cola Peninsula BeveragesABInBev and others, but we need much more.”

The BBC has listed 11 other major international cities that may be faced with a similar water supply crisis.

TSA’s Anti-Terror Trackers Tested at Penn Station

The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) had a presence in New York’s Penn Station this week, as it partnered with Amtrak to test new security technology that can help prevent and detect risks of terrorism and violence.

The TSA set up a passive system known as a stand-off explosive detection unit at the Amtrak concourse to identify individuals carrying/wearing a person-borne improvised explosive device (PBIED), such as a suicide bomb or vest. Such a vest was worn by terror suspect Akayed Ullah, when he attempted to blow himself up in a tunnel connected to the Port Authority in Midtown Manhattan last December.

The system will be tested at Penn Station through the end of this week and operated by Amtrak police officers. TSA spokesperson Lisa Farbstein said that local enforcement agents can be trained on the technology and laptop in one day and that local police would establish protocol if a weapon were to be detected.

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According to TSA information, the unit’s main feature is a screening technology that can be used by Amtrak and mass transit agencies to detect potential threats—metallic or non-metallic—by identifying objects that block the naturally-occurring emissions emitted by a person’s body.

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The unit does not emit any radiation and no anatomical details of a person are displayed.

The use of the detection technology enables a rail or transit agency to help safeguard against terrorist threats in a mass transit environment.

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The TSA is supplying two models of the equipment for the purposes of the demonstration. One model is mounted on a tripod, the other is contained in a trunk.

The equipment is mobile, which allows agencies to easily relocate it to different stations. Users operate it via a laptop computer in the station. The image that appears on the laptop reveals concealed objects that block the body emissions and indicate the location and size of those objects on a green image of an individual.

Penn Station was the most recent stop in the new technology’s national testing tour. In December 2017, the scanners were used in the Los Angeles 7th Street metro station where more than 86,000 people pass through each weekday; one month earlier they were used by Amtrak in Washington, D.C. They were also used in Secaucus, New Jersey in 2014 as riders made their way to MetLife Stadium for Super Bowl XLVIII.