Category Archives: Political Risk

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The World’s Most Resilient Cities

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Toronto most resilient city

How do you invest, source and expand responsibly?

Picking the right place to do so may make or break your efforts. At least, that’s the theory of London-based property company Grosvenor. With that in mind, the company analyzed 160 data sets to assess the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the world’s “50 most important cities” to determine which are the most resilient, with resilience defined as “the ability of cities to continue to function as centers of production, human habitation, and cultural development despite the challenges posed by climate change, population growth, declining resource supply, and other paradigm shifts.”

Grosvenor first measured vulnerability by looking at climate threats, environmental degradation (including pollution and overconsumption due to sprawl), resources, infrastructure and community cohesion. For the next half of the equation, according to the Guardian, “Adaptive capacity, or a city’s ability to prevent and mitigate serious threats, was a combination of governance (high value here on democracy, freedom of speech, community participation, transparency, accountability and long-term leadership vision), strong institutions, learning capacity (including good technical universities), disaster planner and finally funding (from budget to credit and access to global funding).”

Of particular note, eight of the weakest 20 cities are in BRIC countries, and some of the cities where population and industry growth are waiting to boom may pose the greatest risks.

Counterintelligence Now Riskier Than Terrorism, Intelligence Officials Report

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National Security

During a Senate hearing yesterday, top U.S. intelligence officials released a new threat assessment report that outlines the top risks to national security. While cybersecurity remains the greatest threat for a second year, the report said dangers from foreign spies and from leakers have surpassed terrorism as threats.

This revision follows a year that illustrated just how vulnerable the United States is to counterintelligence—both foreign spying and the leaking of information. In May, the Defense Department explicitly accused the Chinese government of launching cyberattacks against the U.S. government computer systems and defense contractors “in a deliberate, government-developed strategy to steal intellectual property and gain strategic advantage.”

According to Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), chair of the House Intelligence Committee, the theft of proprietary information and technology by the Chinese constitutes “the largest transfer of wealth illegally in the world’s history” and has cost the U.S. an estimated $2 trillion. “We are in a cyber war today,” Rogers said in July. “Most Americans don’t know it. They go about their lives happily. But we are in a cyber war today.”

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper also pointed to leaks from National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden to illustrate the danger posed by the exposure of classified information. Terrorists are “going to school” on the information revealed, he claimed, calling Snowden’s act the “most damaging theft of intelligence information in our history.”

According to Clapper’s report, the top five threats from 2013 and for 2014 are:

2013

  1. Cyber-attacks, cyber-espionage
  2. Terrorism and Transnational Organized Crime
  3. WMD Proliferation
  4. Counterintelligence
  5. Counterspace (attacks on satellites, communications)

2014

  1. Cyber-attacks, cyber-espionage
  2. Counterintelligence
  3. Terrorism
  4. WMD Proliferation
  5. Counterspace

Widening Wealth Gap Is Biggest Global Risk, World Economic Forum Predicts

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Wealth Disparity

According to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks 2014 report, the chronic gap between the incomes of the richest and poorest citizens is the risk most likely to cause serious global damage in the next decade. Looking forward, the 700 experts queried emphasized that the next generation will only feel this disparity more acutely if current conditions continue. Those presently coming of age face “twin challenges” of reduced employment opportunity and rising education costs, prompting the World Economic Forum to consider the impact on political and social stability as well as economic development.

“Many young people today face an uphill battle,” explained David Cole, group chief risk officer of Swiss Re. “As a result of the financial crisis and globalization, the younger generation in the mature markets struggle with ever fewer job opportunities and the need to support an aging population. While in the emerging markets there are more jobs to be had, the workforce does not yet possess the broad based skill-sets necessary to satisfy demand. It’s vital we sit down with young people now and begin planning solutions aimed at creating fit-for-purpose educational systems, functional job-markets, efficient skills exchanges and the sustainable future we all depend on.”

After a widening global wealth gap, experts predicted that extreme weather events will be the global risk next most likely to cause systemic shock on a global scale. They identified fiscal crises as the global risk with the potential to have the biggest impact over the next 10 years.

The top five most likely and most potentially impactful global risks are:

Most Likely Risks

1. Income disparity (societal risk)

2. Extreme weather events (environmental risk)

3. Unemployment and underemployment (economic risk)

4. Climate change (environmental risk)

5. Cyberattacks (technological risk)

 

Most Potentially Impactful Risks

1. Fiscal crises (economic risk)

2. Climate change (environmental risk)

3. Water crises (environmental risk)

4. Unemployment and underemployment (economic risk)

5. Critical information infrastructure breakdown(technological risk)

California Town Must Improve Risk Management or Lose Insurance Coverage

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Insured City

One southern California town has officially been warned that their insurance will be cut off if city officials do not adopt risk management policies.

Irwindale’s insurer, the California Joint Powers Insurance Authority, issued a performance improvement plan on August 28 and said city liability and workers compensation insurance will be terminated if it does not adopt the measures. Allegations of corruption have cast a pall over the police department and local government, and the city has been forced into almost $2 million in settlement payouts over the past five years, according to the Pasadena Star News.

“They’re on notice that they need to improve their risk management practices within the city’s operations, specifically in the police department, to maintain their insurance coverage with our agency,” JPIA’s risk management program manager Bob May told the paper.

Irwindale has been mired in controversy over the past few years.

Of 24 police officers, three are on paid administrative leave and the department is conducting 14 internal affairs investigations. A local woman recently filed a $20 million lawsuit against the city, alleging that an officer sexually assaulted her during a traffic stop. Police Lt. Mario Camacho has been accused of retaliation by an officer under his command and of sexual harassment by a female cadet. Four city officials are charged with of misappropriation of public funds, embezzlement and conflict of interest resulting from a series of lavish trips to New York City that utilized over $200,000 of public funds.

Under the guidelines from JPIA, the city must hire a permanent human resources manager and council members must complete training on council relations and cooperation. If they do not complete the improvement plan, they risk losing coverage and will have to go to the open market or self-insure.

In September 2011, the JPIA issued a similar warning to the city of La Puente, Calif. As part of the “healthy members program” criteria, which outlines what members should do to stay within risk management guidelines, Insurance Journal reported that the town’s performance improvement plan required that La Puente “hire a permanent city manager, give notice of any harassment and retaliation complaints, and send council members to etiquette classes to learn how to get along.” The city recently completed the program and remains insured.

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So far, the only town to be officially cut off by the California Joint Powers Insurance Authority is Maywood. The city was dropped in 2010 and the lack of insurance forced the local government to lay off almost all of its employees and disband the police department.