Category Archives: Natural Catastrophes

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Calif. Carr Fire Claims 6 Lives

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Just when it seemed like things couldn’t get any worse in California, the Carr wildfire ignited, claiming six lives so far. The fire in Northern California near the city of Redding has been burning since July 23 and is now one of the largest in the state.

Almost 90,000 acres have burned, destroying more than 500 homes and commercial buildings and damaging 135 structures. Firefighters, who are working 24- to 36-hour shifts with little rest in between, said they are making progress and are now on the offense rather than in a defensive mode.

“Although it’s too early for credible insured loss estimates, the current California wildfires could noticeably impact exposed insurers’ 3Q 2018 earnings,” KBW said in a statement today.

Wildfires are also burning in Mariposa County California. The Ferguson Wildfire has closed large parts of Yosemite National Park, the Risk Management Monitor reported. That fire began July 13 at about 8:30 p.

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m. and by July 15 had nearly doubled to 9,300 acres. By July 27 it had burned 45,000 acres and was contained 5%, according to NOAA.

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While authorities have not declared an official cause for that fire, Colin Gannon, senior data analyst at Four Twenty Seven, which studies the economic risk of climate change, said weather and environmental conditions are certainly contributing factors.

The Associated Press reported that hotter weather attributed to climate change dries out vegetation, allowing for more intense, faster-spreading wildfires. Another issue is expansion of subdivisions into previously undeveloped areas.

“There are just places were there should not be subdivisions,” Kurt Henke, a former fire chief in Sacramento who now serves as a consultant to fire organizations told the AP. “We’re not talking about a single family who wants to build a house in the woods.

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I’m talking about subdivisions encroaching into the wild land urban interface that put them in the path of these destructive fires.”

Henke said that more funding needs to come from the state legislature to position firefighters in areas where conditions are ripe for fast-moving fires—so they can be respond quickly if a blaze breaks out.

Gov. Jerry Brown said last year that drought and climate change mean California faces a “new reality” where lives and property are continually threatened by fire.

The state is experiencing longer periods of warm temperatures and dry conditions that are making major fires nearly a year-round possibility, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles.

On July 28 President Trump signed an emergency declaration for California and authorized federal aid for disaster relief.

Deadly Ferguson Wildfires Threaten Access to Yosemite Park

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The Ferguson wildfires have been spreading in Mariposa County, California on the western edge of Yosemite National Park for days, burning 27 square miles and taking the life of one firefighter.

The Mercury News reported that more than 1,400 firefighters have been on the scene trying to protect 100 nearby homes and businesses that are in the fire’s path as it moves south and east.

The fires began July 13 at about 8:30 p.m. and by July 15 had nearly doubled to 9,300 acres. On Wednesday it was at 17,319 acres and 5% contained. And while authorities have not declared an official cause, Colin Gannon, senior data analyst at Four Twenty Seven, which studies the economic risk of climate change, said weather and environmental conditions are certainly contributing factors.

“In [this case], three factors—persistent wind, low humidity, and high availability of fuel sources—aligned just right for rapid fire growth. Weather conditions in the days leading up to the fire were extremely hot and dry, with temperatures approaching 100°F, and strong winds pushed the fire into the hills and valleys, allowing the it to spread quickly,” Gannon said. “Compounding this issue is the widespread presence of dry needles and dead trees, which are a highly combustible fuel source. To make matters worse, the location of the fire in steep and rugged terrain has made access difficult for those fighting the fire.”

On July 15, Pacific Gas & Electric Co. switched off power lines serving the area, affecting parts of Yosemite, El Portal and Foresta, in an effort to mitigate further fire risk.

The severity of the fires has not closed down Yosemite, which is nearly 1,200 square miles wide, but did force the closure of several miles of Highway 140 in Mariposa County west of El Portal, limiting some access to the park. The park’s website also advises visitors to “expect poor air quality and limited visibility due to the Ferguson Fire. Smoke may be heavy at times, and visitors should be prepared to limit any heavy outdoor activity during the periods of poor air quality.”

Weather is expected to remain hot and dry for the next seven days, with isolated thunderstorms possible over the Sierra Crest, which authorities are hoping could provide some relief.

According to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, 3,213 fires burned 98,169 acres in the state between January 1 and July 15 of this year. That acreage is down more than 30,000 from this time last year. By September 2017, the Forest Service and Interior Department had spent more than $2 billion fighting fires in the United States for the year — making it the most expensive wildfire season on record.

The insurance industry has been reacting to the high activity, Gannon said, particularly regarding residential properties in risky areas.

“There have been incidents of private insurers dropping coverage for homeowners in high fire risk areas,” Gannon said. “It is difficult to say how pervasively this will occur when new science, and subsequently new understanding of fire risk, becomes available. As a result, state insurance, otherwise known as the California FAIR plan is stepping in to provide coverage for high risk areas.”

As Risk Management Monitor reported, the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety (IIBHS) recommends that organizations survey the materials and design features of their structures; as well as the types of plants used, their location and maintenance.

Companies also should determine their fire hazard severity zone (FHSZ) by evaluating the landscape, fire history in the area and terrain features such as slope of the land. Organizations can request the FHSZ rating from local building or fire officials in their area.

IIBHS notes three sources of wildfire ignition:

  1. Burning embers, or firebrands, generated by a wildfire and made worse in windy conditions.
  2. Direct flame contact from the wildfire.
  3. Radiant heat emanating from the fire.

Despite A ‘Near-Average’ Forecast, Hurricane Flooding May Increase

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With so many businesses and individuals affected by Hurricanes including Maria, Harvey and Irma in 2017, risk managers and insurers are looking to revised forecasts of this year’s hurricane season for a glimmer of hope that 2018 will not bring the same destruction. They may have found it in new information released by Colorado State University, which indicates that a near-average season is likely. It predicts 14 named storms between now and Nov. 30, of which six would become hurricanes. But the caveat is that one immense storm during a “near-average” season can still wreak havoc on businesses and homes.
The criteria is heavily based on the number of hurricanes and not their economic impact. Look to other years with similar buzzword descriptors to determine if its impact is included in your organization’s systematic risk.

“The years 1960, 1967 and 2006 had near-average Atlantic hurricane activity, while 1996 and 2011 were both above-normal hurricane seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.

Most of those years endured damage caused by heavy tropical storms—the most noteworthy was 2011 when Hurricane Irene touched down and ultimately cost $15 billion alone. Klotzbach’s team predicts that 2018 hurricane activity will be about 135% of the average season. By comparison, 2017’s hurricane activity, highlighted by Harvey, Irma and Maria, exceeded average season expectations by about 245%.

Given the outlook, experts are still optimistic about the insurance industry’s resilience. A recent Moody’s report noted that despite last year’s losses, the reinsurance industry has sufficient capital to absorb hurricane-related claims.

“Hurricanes, particularly Harvey, Irma and Maria, alongside other catastrophe events last year wiped out a number of reinsurers’ profitability for the year and drove the sector’s profitability to its lowest level since 2005,” analyst Rocio Nunez said in a statement.

Here Comes The Flood
There is another risk associated with hurricanes that could also explain the rising costs and number of claims. The storms themselves—not their windspeeds—have been moving slower than they did 70 years ago. With the collective pace of weather systems slowing down, the risk for flooding increases. Jim Kossin, a researcher at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), recently published findings and offered some theories to explain why storms and hurricanes are overstaying their welcome.

According to his recent report, A Global Slowdown of Tropical Cyclone Translation Speed:

One thing scientists do know is that the location where tropical cyclones reach maximum intensity has been shifting toward the poles. And, this may be related to or even causing the overall slowdown.

Using the ‘operational best-track’ data from the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF), the 2017 mean-over-land Atlantic translation speed is 17.9 km h-1, which is at the slowest 20th percentile of over-land translation speeds for the period since 1949.

Some experts believe that global warming also contributes to the slower pace since it “weakens the summertime circulation of the atmosphere in the tropics.” Still, a stalled hurricane and ongoing precipitation may be too much for some infrastructures to handle, as was demonstrated in Houston last year.

Hindsight
The 2017 hurricane season was undoubtedly a wakeup call for the United States, as it saw 12 named storms causing 100 deaths—68 from Hurricane Harvey alone—and is considered the 17th deadliest hurricane season since 1990. With regard to economic impact, last year’s natural disasters between June 1 and Nov. 30 caused $200 billion in reported damages, making it the second-costliest season on record behind the 2005 season.

“Hurricane Harvey was a different beast—its movement stalled because of high pressure regions that essentially blocked its path. It’s not clear whether we’ll see that specific situation more commonly as the world warms,” an Ars Technica article noted. Other ways in which climate change contributed to Harvey’s impact—like warmer ocean water and warmer air holding more water vapor—are more obvious.

Risk Management Monitor reported that the majority of senior executives of large U.S. companies with operations in Texas, Florida or Puerto Rico admitted to being unprepared for the hurricanes that devastated their communities in 2017. According to a survey by FM Global, 64% of respondents said the hurricanes had an adverse impact on their operations, a full 62% said they were not entirely prepared.

Expect the Unexpected: Mitigating the Risks of Natural Disasters

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As we’ve seen with the recent Kilauea volcanic eruption and last year’s catastrophic hurricane season, natural disasters are becoming more frequent and dramatically more powerful. In fact, NOAA recently reported that weather and climate disasters reached an all-time high in damage costs within the United States, exceeding $300 billion in 2017.

In the face of these increases, companies have a social responsibility to maintain a strong disaster recovery strategy. How can your company prepare to combat the risks from these seemingly unpredictable events? Implementing a proactive risk management approach can help companies better prepare themselves, their employees and their communities to minimize damage and loss in the face of these destructive events. But these strategies cannot simply be created when a natural disaster strikes. As with anything, careful planning before a catastrophe happens is vital to the continued health and success of a business.

When developing these strategies, it is imperative that both pre- and post-disaster planning is  included in the mix, as each plays a critical role in ensuring your ongoing operations.

Maintain a pre-event strategy
It’s important to remember that when natural disaster strikes, there are both direct and indirect costs to a company. How you plan and address these costs can either save or destroy your business.

With today’s technology, we have the ability to monitor most natural disasters and maintain a better idea of when and how hard they will hit. This isn’t always the case, however. While hurricanes can take time to form before making landfall, oftentimes tornadoes and wildfires happen overnight, making it critical to have disaster plans in place before a disaster strikes.

There are three main areas companies should consider when creating a preemptive disaster strategy: 1) supply chain, 2) employees and 3) business infrastructure.

Maintaining a timely and accurate risk strategy for your company and your employees is incredibly important to protect all of these assets. First, it can help protect your supply chain by providing time to divert your supply chain operations from problem areas.

Additionally, it is imperative to be mindful of conditions affecting your various suppliers and how their potential risks can affect your operations.

Armed with this knowledge, you can proactively develop supply chain diversion strategies to maintain efficiency and production. While you may not have the threat of a natural disaster, one of your largest suppliers might. So think ahead, make a back-up plan and monitor both your own operations and those of your supply chain.

As we all know, employees are central to each and every business. An established risk mitigation strategy will include notifying employees so they have time to protect themselves and their family. It can also help management decide if and when to send employees home to help keep them safe.

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Finally, a preemptive strategy needs to consider the effects of disaster on business infrastructure. How will you prepare your building and operations for the threat of a flood or tornado? Do you have access to the proper reinforcements and equipment to accomplish these preparations? A well-established pre-event risk management strategy can help with these issues and also minimize damage so that you are not left picking up the pieces of what could have been a protected building or warehouse.

Implement a proactive post-event strategy
When developing a post-event disaster plan, the best strategy is to think long-term, as short fixes are just that—short fixes.

Consider the upstream impact of the disaster. Damage to raw materials and supplier areas can amount to huge indirect costs. So how can you avoid this? One way is by ensuring your pre-event plan is efficiently put into effect and is able to redirect any necessary supplies. It is also imperative to have a successful remediation strategy in place to recover from the effects of a disaster for both your operations and those of your supply chain. Be prepared to re-establish your supply chain and be sure it is completely intact post-disaster.

Many disasters also have long-lasting impacts that cause companies to have a lengthy rebuilding process. Have a plan for secondary supply chain options to ensure ongoing operations in case a supplier is out of service for a longer period of time. The problems don’t end when the disaster ends, so be sure to build out contingency plans for your operations through the potential recovery months.

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Your post-event remediation strategies must also consider your physical office environment. Ensure there is a plan to check that equipment is operational and know how to repair or find replacement equipment to get operations up and running as soon as possible. Focus on rebuilding the business ecosystem from supply chain, to operations, to your employees.

Finally, consider how you will get your employees back to work, and not just for the immediate future. Invest in your employees, and they will invest in you. After natural disasters, your employees could be facing damaged or destroyed homes, the loss of loved ones and even personal injuries.

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Look at what the company can do to help ensure their well-being so that they are willing and able to return to work.

Inevitability doesn’t have to mean susceptibility
Regardless of location, natural disasters are going to occur that affect you and your business to some extent. That is a fact of life. But it doesn’t necessarily mean that your company is susceptible to the significant damages and costs associated with these disasters.

Maintaining open lines of communication with your leadership and employees will help you develop and implement a strategic plan before and after nature takes its course. As we face the upcoming hurricane season and other inevitable disasters, it is better to mitigate the risks and susceptibility so that your “in case” plan doesn’t become “we should have.”