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Storm Summary 5

Welcome to the fifth “Storm Summary” post of the hurricane season.

Each Friday from now until the official end of the season (November 30) I will post an update on past and present storms, like the following:

NAME PEAK STATUS DATE LOCATION DAMAGE
Ana TD 28-May Mid Atlantic None
Blanca TS 7/6 to 7/8 East Pacific None
Carlos Cat. 1 7/10 to 7/16 East Pacific None
Dolores TS 7/15 to 7/17 East Pacific None
Enrique TS 8/4 to 8/7 East Pacific None
Felicia Cat.  4 8/3 to 8/11 East Pacific None
Guillermo Cat. 3 8/12 to 8/19 East Pacific None
Bill Cat. 3 8/13 to present Mid Atlantic None

Hurricane Bill became the second named storm and first major hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. At 8 a.m. this morning, Bill’s maximum winds had decreased to near 115 mph, making it close to the category 2 label. The National Hurricane Center said the center of the storm had become “less organized.”

Hurricane Bill is located approximately 385 miles south of Bermuda and is not expected to make landfall as it heads towards the cooler waters of the North Atlantic.

Though the Atlantic has only seen two named storms, the waters of the Pacific are seeing constant activity, due, in part, to El Niño, which is “the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters [that] occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.” Although most people think of this phenomenon in negative terms for the damage it can spur on the West Coast, it is actually beneficial to the East Coast/Gulf Coast in the sense that warmer waters in the Pacific usually create conditions that suppress Atlantic hurricanes. Why exactly this occurs is not something I’m qualified to explain but, as I recall, it has something to do with warm and cool air mixing in a different way and creating a “wind shear” that helps prevent storms from developing.

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society can probably explain it better.

For constant, up-to-date storm information, visit NOAA. And for breaking information on the insured losses the storms create, check out the Insurance Information Institute and the Insurance Services Office.

Most importantly, don’t forget to check back next Friday for our sixth “Storm Summary” installment.

Storm Summary 4

Welcome to the fourth “Storm Summary” post of the hurricane season. Each Friday from now until the official end of the season (November 30) I will post an update on past and present storms, like the following:

NAME PEAK STATUS DATE LOCATION DAMAGE
Ana TD 28-May Mid Atlantic None
Blanca TS 7/6 to 7/8 East Pacific None
Carlos Cat. 2 7/10 to 7/16 East Pacific None
Dolores TS 7/15 to 7/17 East Pacific None
Enrique TS 8/4 to 8/7 East Pacific None
Felicia Cat.  4 8/3 to present East Pacific None
Guillermo Cat. 1 8/13 to present East Pacific None

Hurricane Guillermo formed overnight in the Pacific Ocean, making it the sixth named storm to form in that region. The National Hurricane Center expects Guillermo to strengthen today and weaken Saturday as it heads over cooler waters.

What seems like constant storm activity in the Pacific is due, in part, to El Niño, which is “the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters [that] occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.” Although most people think of this phenomenon in negative terms for the damage it can spur on the West Coast, it is actually beneficial to the East Coast/Gulf Coast in the sense that warmer waters in the Pacific usually create conditions that suppress Atlantic hurricanes. Why exactly this occurs is not something I’m qualified to explain but, as I recall, it has something to do with warm and cool air mixing in a different way and creating a “wind shear” that helps prevent storms from developing. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society can probably explain it better.

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As the Pacific hurricane season rages on, the Atlantic has remained relatively calm.

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For constant, up-to-date storm information, visit NOAA. And for breaking information on the insured losses the storms create, check out the Insurance Information Institute and the Insurance Services Office.

Most importantly, don’t forget to check back next Friday for our fifth “Storm Summary” installment.

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Thoughts on CEI’s Stance on Catastrophe Funding

In the most recent issue of Business Insurance, Competitive Enterprise Institute senior fellow Eli Lehrer offers his thoughts on why exactly a federal natural catastrophe backstop would be a very, very bad idea. The CEI has been carpet bombing trade and mainstream media outlets in a nonstop campaign to tell anybody who will listen that the only thing worse than a hurricane wiping out coastal property is for the federal government to pick up the tab for it.

While Lehrer’s BI interview is well-reasoned and even worded, not all of the CEI’s efforts in the arena have been. Earlier this year, the CEI launched NoBeachHouseBailouts.org, which appears to promote itself on the specious notion that a national catastrophe defense fund, such as the one outlined in the Homeowner’s Defense Act of 2008, would primarily benefit the likes of super-rich celebrities seeking government bailout funds for their beach-front mansions. It’s the kind of cynical sloganeering we’d expect in a nasty political campaign (Lehrer himself was a speechwriter for Bill Frist, R-TN), especially since it goes for a gut reaction instead of considering the facts.

When we study poverty rates along all coastal counties subject to Atlantic hurricanes (figures provided by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Data Service, 2007) we find that 10 of the 19 states with coastal risk exposures to Atlantic hurricanes have higher poverty rates on the coast than the statewide average. And across all coastal states subject to hurricanes, the average county poverty rate in 2007 is 12.4%, only 0.6% below the national rate.

More to the point, if we look at regional data, an even more interesting picture emerges. Coastal poverty rates are lower than the national average almost across the board in states from Virginia through Maine — those northeastern states that have a much milder hurricane history than their more southern counterparts.

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Coastal poverty rates from North Carolina through Texas — the states where hurricanes make landfall most frequently — were almost entirely above state averages. And this, in states where the statewide averages themselves were universally several points higher than the national poverty average.

Bottom line: a national catastrophe defense fund is meant to provide for those who cannot afford to rebound from a hurricane strike with the means to do so.

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The states that would benefit from this the most are poorer southern states that already have higher-than-average rates of poverty compared to the rest of the nation, and whose coasts are even more poverty-stricken. To suggest that a national catastrophe defense fund would primarily bailout celebrities such as Donald Trump, Tiger Woods and John Travolta, as the CEI does, displays a certain ignorance of the wider economic reality of coastal risk.

It is tempting indeed to suggest that if people do not wish to deal with coastal risk, they should simply move away from the coast. However, such wishful thinking flies in the face of global human behavior, which is showing more movement toward coastal areas than at any other time in the history of our species.

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Coastal risk cannot be dismissed with a wave of the hand, nor is it primarily borne by those with more than enough personal resources to cope with the risks.

If the CEI is so bothered by the thought of millionaires benefiting from a catastrophe defense fund, then a more reasoned approach would be to lobby for a condition exempting homeowners with single property values over a certain amount, on the basis that such property owners already have enough to afford proper levels of insurance, or can finance their risk independently, rather than argue to deny our nation’s coastal poor the benefit of government relief when the next major hurricane strikes them.

Storm Summary 3

Welcome to the third “Storm Summary” post of the hurricane season. Each Friday from now until the official end of the season (November 30) I will post an update on past and present storms, like the following:

NAME PEAK STATUS DATE LOCATION DAMAGE
Ana TD 28-May Mid Atlantic None
Blanca TS 7/6 to 7/8 East Pacific None
Carlos Cat. 2 7/10 to 7/16 East Pacific None
Dolores TS 7/15 to 7/17 East Pacific None
Enrique TS 8/4 to present East Pacific None
Felicia Cat.  4 8/3 to present East Pacific None

Hurricane Felicia (now a category 3) and the recently downgraded tropical depression Enrique are dangerously close together in the Eastern Pacific waters, not far from Hawaii. Meteorologists fear Felicia may overtake Enrique, adding even more strength to the already massive storm. Island residents are preparing for the worst.

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What seems like constant storm activity in the Pacific is due, in part, to El Niño, which is “the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters [that] occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.” Although most people think of this phenomenon in negative terms for the damage it can spur on the West Coast, it is actually beneficial to the East Coast/Gulf Coast in the sense that warmer waters in the Pacific usually create conditions that suppress Atlantic hurricanes. Why exactly this occurs is not something I’m qualified to explain but, as I recall, it has something to do with warm and cool air mixing in a different way and creating a “wind shear” that helps prevent storms from developing.

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The International Research Institute for Climate and Society can probably explain it better.

As the Pacific hurricane season rages on, the Atlantic has remained relatively calm.

For constant, up-to-date storm information, visit NOAA. And for breaking information on the insured losses the storms create, check out the Insurance Information Institute and the Insurance Services Office.

Most importantly, don’t forget to check back next Friday for our fourth “Storm Summary” installment.

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