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I’m a sucker for shows about disasters. “Mega Disasters” on the History Channel might be my favorite show. (With the one about the Yellowstone “Supervolcano” being my favorite.
Recently, I was watching another program in this genre, “Earth Under Water,” on Nat Geo. I’m not sure if this is a series or just a one-off, but it is pretty fascinating. It predictably discusses the coming climate change sea-level rise with the subtext being that we’re all pretty much, no pun intended, up the river without a paddle on this one. And if you live on the coast? Just move inland now.
Hurricane Irene battered the Caribbean and may now have its sights set on the Mid-Atlantic. It’s still to early to accurately forecast the storms trajectory, but FEMA is urging the entire East Coast to prepare.
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After lashing the Turks and Caicos islands and the Bahamas, Irene is projected to skirt Florida and instead hit the Carolina coast by the weekend, but Craig Fugate, the Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator, said Irene’s exact path cannot be predicted this far out.
The storm, he said, will affect a large area.
“People think hurricanes are a Southern thing but people in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast need to take Irene seriously,” Fugate said.
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“We have a lot of time for people to get ready but we don’t have forever.”
Last year around this time, there was much made of the damage Hurricane Earl might do well north of the traditional hurricane-exposed region of the country. Then it came and went without any fury to speak of.
That non-event will likely cloud the minds of some who will expect the same result. Hopefully, nothing disastrous will happen. But eventually a storm will make it up to the Northeast. We don’t know when. And that’s why you have to prepare for each as if it may.
The blaze has burned 486 square miles of ponderosa pine forest, driven by wind gusts of more than 60 mph, since it was sparked May 29 by what authorities believe was an unattended campfire. Now more than twice the size of Chicago, the fire became the second-largest in Arizona history Tuesday. No serious injuries have been reported, but the fire has destroyed 10 structures so far. It has cast smoke as far east as Iowa and forced some planes to divert from Albuquerque, N.M., some 200 miles away.
Firefighters from as far away as New York are working day and night in attempt to slow the spread of flames. But residents and firefighters alike are understandably worried since a blaze of this size accompanied by winds of such a high speed could move the Wallow Fire to the number one spot in Arizona’s list of largest fires.
So what’s the deal with all of these wild, weather-related disasters?
According to Bill Patzert, a research scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, the cause it not solely global warming, but more “global weirding.”
“Sometimes it gets wild and weird,” says Patzert. In more technical terms, weather forecasters searching for a unifying explanation point to the La Niña climate pattern, a phenomenon born far out in the Pacific Ocean that shapes weather across the globe, in combination with other atmospheric anomalies that have altered the jet stream flow of air across North America. Less famous than its warm-water climate sibling El Niño, this year’s La Niña has been “near record-breaking” in its intensity, says climate scientist Michelle L’Heureux of the Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md.
La Niña conditions occur every few years and can persist as long as two years. With the tornadoes, flooding and fires that have already ravaged parts of the U.S., and hurricane season upon us, it is unfortunately shaping up to be an active, expensive and deadly La Niña season.
A recent report illustrates the dire nature of storm surge exposure in several major U.S. cities. The Storm Surge Report, developed by CoreLogic, revealed hurricane-driven storm surge flooding could cause billions in damage to residential structures in 2011.
“The local flood zones defined by FEMA in high-risk coastal regions provide a great deal of exposure data for homes in the path of flood waters, but understanding the additional layer of risk posed by a storm surge is critical for homeowners, emergency response teams, insurance companies and many others to plan and prepare for natural catastrophes,” said Dr. Howard Botts, executive vice president and director of database development for CoreLogic Spatial Solutions.
“As the report shows, in many cases, homes exposed to potential storm-surge inundation are located outside of designated flood zones, and those homeowners need to be aware of their vulnerability to severe damage and property losses.”
Of the various areas studied in the report, Long Island, New York, was found to have the highest exposure to risk of storm surge. The top 10 breaks down as follows:
Long Island, NY – $99 billion
Miami-Dade, FL – $44.9 billion
Virginia Beach, VA – $44.6 billion
New Orleans, LA – $39 billion
Tampa, FL – $27 billion
Houston, TX – $20 billion
Jacksonville, FL – $19.6 billion
Charleston, SC – $17.7 billion
Corpus Christi, TX – $4.7 billion
Mobile, AL – $3 billion
Considering that this year’s hurricane forecast calls for 16 named storms and five major hurricanes for the 2011 season, it could be a costly storm season for the 10 cities listed above. As more and more coastal areas succumb to residential building, the cost of such natural disasters increases exponentially.
