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Thailand Flood Disrupts Global Supply Chain

Thailand is underwater. The current flood is the worst the nation has faced in 50 years and hundreds have died. It’s a tragic disaster affecting millions, but it is also one that is having profound affects on the global supply chain.

For example, according to the global supplier database provider Panjiva (which had this interesting profile written about it last year), the United States imports more than one third of all its incoming hard drives from Thailand. And the reliance on these sales goes both ways: “By dollar value, hard drives are Thailand’s biggest export category to the United States — about $1.5 billion to-date,” says Panjiva.

They don’t provide precise numbers on the effect the flood has had so far — it is likely just too soon to know. But the disruption will be significant. Panjiva notes that the overall second quarter exports to the United States from Japan, which was hit by the most economically devastating disaster in history in March, fell 7% compared to the same period in 2010. Thailand’s economy is only 4% that of Japan’s, and the scale of disaster is hard to compare to the epic quake and tsunami that devastated an island nation whose $5.5 trillion 2010 GDP was the world’s third highest, but the effects will certainly be felt in parts of the tech world.

The number gurus at Panjiva have also detailed a few more of the economic products likely to be most affected: coconuts, shrimp, rice, pineapples and furniture. See the graphic below for a breakdown of how much each of these major commodities will affected by the floods.

 

The 5 Companies Hit Hardest by the Thailand Floods

Thailand’s worst flooding in five decades has affected companies in every industry, from automotive to technology to pharmaceuticals and beyond. As we saw with the earthquake in Japan, it’s a company’s supply chain that is affected most when natural disasters strike.

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Thailand is a midsize country of 67 million people and its outsized importance in global supply chains is now becoming clear. Here are 5 companies most affected by the historical floods:

  1. Toyota — It seems as though any natural disaster affects this automotive manufacturer. Toyota announced today that it will suspend production at its plants in North American on Saturday, citing an interruption in the supply chain of some Thai-made components. Toyota plants in Indiana, Kentucky and Ontario, Canada, will be shut down until the situation in Thailand improves. As of last Friday, the floods had resulted in an output loss of 37,500 vehicles in the Southeast Asian country since Toyota idled three plants there October 10th. That number could potentially climb to 250,000 by mid-November. If that happens, it is estimated that operating profit could be reduced by $1.6 billion.
  2. Ford — On a conference call yesterday, Ford Chief Financial Officer Lewis Booth stated that the carmaker may lose production of 30,000 vehicles. Though Ford’s assembly plant is not affected, their supply chain is. The company said the Thai floods have cut fourth-quarter production so far by 17,000 vehicles due to supplier issues. That number could climb to 30,000. Ford said it is “working closely with its affected suppliers to return to production as quickly as possible and to minimize any potential impact in other regions.”
  3. Lenovo — The Chinese computer maker said yesterday that it expects its supply of hard disk drives to tighten “through the first quarter of next year.” Thailand supplies approximately 40% of the global output of hard disk data storage devices, meaning Lenovo is not the only company within the industry experiencing interruption issues. Western Digital and Seagate Technology have both said they expect to face a shortage of parts soon.
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    Because of this, Apple announced they expect a shortage in the coming months of disk drives for their products, specifically the company’s Mac lines, according to Apple CEO Tim Cook .

  4. Canon — The Tokyo-based company has recently revised its full-year financial outlook based on concerns about the impact of flooding in Thailand. The company said the Thai flooding will lower its sales and operating profit by Y50 billion ($660,000) and Y20 billion ($264,000), respectively, in the fourth quarter.
  5. Sharp — Having recently announced that the company is almost fully recovered from the business interruption it experienced after the Japan earthquake in March, Japan’s number one liquid-crystal display maker is now stating that the Thai floods may affect revenue.

    Although Sharp’s manufacturing facilities in Thailand weren’t damaged, the company’s inability to secure certain parts from suppliers hit by the flooding may result in tens of billions of yen in lost revenue, said Sharp Executive Vice President Toshio Adachi at a press conference.

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As companies scramble to obtain parts from other regions of the world, we are reminded that supply chain risk management is an often-overlooked segment of the discipline…until disaster strikes.

Turkey, Thailand and Dublin All in Disaster Recovery Mode

Every day, we get more evidence that 2011 is the worst disaster year the world on record.

Turkey is still digging out from a tragic earthquake that has reportedly killed more than 420 people.

Thailand is awash with floodwaters that have reportedly killed more than 350.

And now Ireland’s capital city has suffered a flash flood that reportedly killed two and stranded many Dubliners.

The Elusive NYC Hurricane

Well, maybe it’s not so elusive after all.

All estimates have the projected path of Hurricane Irene heading straight for the most populated city in the nation. Just this morning, AccuWeather.com‘s Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski, predicted that the storm “is now on a path that could take it dangerously close to, if not over, the mid-Atlantic coastline and New York City on Sunday, posing a serious danger to millions of people.”

Following the almost-imminent brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina, the storm will come extremely close to or directly over New York City. In preparation, the city’s Department of Environmental Protection is lowering the water level in some of its upstate reservoirs to make room for storm runoff while Mayor Bloomberg is urging residents to prepare for the worst. (Good risk management, Mike B!).

As The Wall Street Journal reports:

The latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model shows a direct landfall on New York City of a Category 2 Irene, an outcome that would be likely to push a significant storm surge up the Hudson River and raise the level of New York Harbor by 10 to 15 feet. This would truly be a historic blow to the city should it come to pass.

Though it is necessary to prepare for the worst when it comes to any natural disaster, we must keep in mind that forecast error for hurricane projections this far in advance averages about 150 to 200 miles.

The NYC Office of Emergency Management lists 1999’s Tropical Storm Floyd as the last storm affect the area. It brought flash flooding that caused NYC schools to close for the first time since 1996 and led the city to open emergency storm shelters. But the deadliest and most destructive hurricane to hit NYC was the “Long Island Express” in 1938. The category 3 hurricane crossed over Long Island and into New England, killing nearly 200 people — 10 of those in NYC. The storm knocked out power in all areas above 59th street and in all areas of the Bronx.

Here’s is an amazing (and somewhat horrifying if you live in NYC as most of our staff does) video by the History Channel of what could happen if the 1938 hurricane made landfall here today.