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Time to Get Serious About Climate Change Risks

While arguments from climate change deniers have subsided, there is still discussion about the cause of climate change—natural or man made? But these arguments are mere time-wasters. Right now it’s critical to put the focus on managing this risk.

Insurers have it right. For years they have been pointing to the urgent need to deal with the issues surrounding climate change. Insurers know this global risk needs to be dealt with now—and in the future—and they can’t afford to get it wrong.

Johnny Chan, Ph.D., director of the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Center said it best: “The debate on climate change and global warming has been intensely polarized. A great deal of this ‘noise’ has clouded the very real and emerging issues that we as an industry and society need to address. In order to adapt to climate change and the changing risk landscape, it is necessary to cut through this noise and focus on objective decisions to mitigate both the financial and social risks associated with climate change.”

Guy Carpenter said in a study on the risks of global warming that the biggest threat is rising sea-levels. According to the report, the greatest concern is coastal flooding, projected to increase as sea levels rise at least one to two feet by the end of the century. In other words, storms such as Superstorm Sandy on the U.S. East Coast and Cyclone Nilam in Eastern India are expected with greater frequency and severity.

Post-Sandy, we’ve seen how far-reaching the effects of a mega-storm can be. In fact, 25 miles or so away from the New York/New Jersey shoreline, northward along the Hudson River where I live, homes, businesses and communities were devastated by the storm surge. A number of businesses have closed and damaged homes still stand boarded and empty.

Bloomberg Businessweek reported that as the Federal Emergency Management Agency moves forward with its plans to update flood maps nationally, 350 coastal counties—and 32,000 homes—will be impacted. Homeowners and business owners are reeling from the price of flood insurance, which will escalate even more in designated areas unless they raise structures. One couple in Old Greenwich, Conn., will pay $300,000 to raise their home 15.5 feet, according to the article. Residents of towns that elect not to adopt the maps will not be eligible for National Flood Insurance Program coverage.

Hard-hit New York and New Jersey are taking the threat of rising seas seriously with announcements that a number of coastal structures will need to be raised. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg in June declared a sweeping plan to help combat future flooding. The plan, which would include building flood walls, levees and bulkheads along 520 miles of coast, was projected to initially cost $20 billion.

Guy Carpenter’s report recommends that coastal areas re-examine their flood strategies including dykes and seawalls. Inland urban communities aren’t immune, as winds and heavy rains can cause flooding. These areas need to have storm water management infrastructure in place to accommodate larger volumes of rainwater and should upgrade codes and standards for infrastructure and land use that permits rainwater catchment basins.

While these preparations should be a priority for governments, they also compete with the need to replace aging infrastructures everywhere. Bridges, roads and water systems need repairs or replacement in every corner of the country. But many communities, crippled by debt and shrinking workforces, no doubt are focusing on needs as they arise. Hopefully the two can go hand-in-hand so that risk managers can build in flood control and other upgrades as they make the improvements so badly needed.

Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force Releases Recommendations

Hurricane Sandy damage to New Jersey boardwalk

President Obama’s Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force released their findings yesterday, sharing 69 recommendations to repair existing damage and strengthen infrastructure ahead of future natural disasters.

The task force encouraged an emphasis on new construction over simple repair, citing the impact of climate change on severe weather events.

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“More than ever, it is critical that when we build for the future, we do so in a way that makes communities more resilient to emerging challenges such as rising sea levels, extreme heat, and more frequent and intense storms,” the report said. Construction designed for increasingly dangerous storms, infrastructure strengthened to prevent power failure and fuel shortage, and a cellular service system that can subsist during disasters are all critical investments to prevent future loss.

Recommendations included streamlining federal agencies’ review processes for reconstruction projects, revising federal mortgage policies so homeowners can get insurance checks faster, and making greater use of natural barriers like wetlands and sand dunes.

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The team also said that planners need better tools to evaluate and quantify long-term benefits of future projects along the shoreline, but did not detail what would be best ecologically and economically.

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According to USA Today, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said the Sandy task force report shows that “we have much work to do hardening our energy, telecommunications and transportation infrastructure,” and that “the federal government must be a proactive partner with local governments and the private sector.”

Some of the task force’s suggestions have already been put into place. As the AP reported, this includes the creation of new Federal Flood Reduction Standard for infrastructure projects built with government funds and promotion of the Sea Level Rise Tool, which will help builders and engineers predict where flooding might occur in the future.

The government has closed over 99.5% of over 143,000 National Flood Insurance Program claims related to Hurricane Sandy and paid out more than $7.8 billion to policyholders, according to the task force report. The federal government should support local efforts to mitigate future risk by funding local disaster recovery manager positions and encouraging homeowners to take steps to reduce the risk of future damage, which will also make rising flood insurance premiums more affordable, the report said.

The team has also launched Rebuild by Design, “a competition that will attract world-class talent to develop actionable plans that will make the Sandy-impacted region more resilient.”

Flood Safety Awareness Week

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) have teamed up to highlight flood risk with their Flood Safety Awareness Week. In many ways, flooding is the most-damaging natural disaster facing the United States, noted Dr. Louis W. Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service (a branch of NOAA).

“Flooding is dangerous and costly, killing nearly 100 people and causing an average of eight billion dollars in property damage in the United States each year,” said Dr. Uccellini.  “A weather-ready nation is a prepared nation; one that will reduce flood losses by planning ahead, staying abreast of weather forecasts and heeding the warnings.”

The agencies’ goal for the week is obvious: improving awareness of the risk and how citizens can stay safe.

FEMA’s Ready.gov site has several more tips to preparing for times before, during and after a flood, as does NOAA’s website, which offers information on its “Turn Around Don’t Drown” campaign. This campaign is something NOAA has been been highlighting for years, pushing those who encounter flood conditions on the road to head the other way rather than get stuck in water — or worse, if the road beneath is washed away.

According to NOAA, more than half of flooding-related deaths occur when people are driving.

It remains mystifying how many people don’t understand that the foundation of the Industrial Revolution, the combustion engine, relies on, ya know, combustion to work. And combustion — a fancy word for fire — requires oxygen. Which, I’ve heard, is not plentiful underwater.

In short, don’t try to drive through a lake.

One other interesting facet of this year’s advocacy is the focus on the 100-year anniversary of The Great Flood of 1913, something local survivor Bishop Milton Wright called a flood “second only to Noah’s.”

In late March of 1913 rain fell in such an excess over the Ohio Valley that no river in Ohio and most of Indiana remained in its banks. Bridges, roads, railways, dams, and property were washed away.

In its wake, at least 600 lost their lives, a quarter million people were left homeless, and damages were estimated in the hundreds of millions, making it at that time one of the worst natural disasters the United States had witnessed.

When disaster struck this part of the U.S. starting Easter Sunday, 1913 and lasting for weeks, it had a ripple effect across the entire nation. The damage to roads, railways, telephone and electrical lines paralyzed commerce in and out of the region.

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This affected people across the country, unlike previous disasters where impacts were primarily localized.

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As a result, there was national outcry for state and federal governments to reevaluate their role in flood control.

Through it has been a century since the disaster, it remains one of the largest tragedies in U.

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S. history.

Still, those who lost loved ones, homes and livelihoods may be able to take solace in the fact that they helped prompt a larger discussion of the risk. This nation’s history is spotted with catastrophes that helped spark change and this was one of the first in terms of increasing disaster preparedness.

Now, if only more people will heed those lessons.

The Largest Natural Hazard Risks of 2012

2012 was a year of natural catastrophes. From Hurricane Sandy to the record-setting drought to the third most destructive wildfire season on record, the year was fraught with disasters that took a toll not only on communities nationwide, but on some of the world’s largest insurers. Today, CoreLogic issued its annual Natural Hazard Risk Summary, which details the most significant natural disasters that struck the United States in 2012. It notes the following:

Hurricanes

  • The single most destructive natural disaster in 2012 was Hurricane Sandy. In late October, the Category 1 storm generated record levels of storm surge along the northern New Jersey coast and in the New York City area, impacting more than five million residents across the region.
  • The first hurricane to make landfall in the U.
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    S. in 2012 was Category 1 Hurricane Isaac in late August, which caused an estimated $2 billion in insured losses around the New Orleans metro area.

Floods

  • Flood losses are expected to total approximately $10 billion in 2012, which would result in the third consecutive year of increasing flood damage in the U.S.
  • Earlier in the year, Tropical Storm Debby tracked slowly across the Florida peninsula in June, dropping at least 25 inches of rainfall along its path.
  • After months of sustained, widespread drought, Hurricane Isaac brought heavy rainfall and flooding to Louisiana in late August before continuing northward into the Midwest.
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Wildfires

  • The 2012 wildfire season was the third most destructive on record in the U.S. in terms of total acres burned as of early December.
  • The 15-year trend of fewer, but larger fires continued into 2012 with fewer than 51,000 individual wildfires across the country—the lowest number recorded since 1989.
  • Several of the individual fires that occurred in 2012 set records, including Colorado’s Waldo Canyon Fire, which damaged or destroyed 346 homes, and New Mexico’s Whitewater-Baldy Fire, which burned more than 297,000 acres.
  • NOAA continues to predict a pattern of drought conditions through the start of 2013, suggesting the potential for another increase in wildfire risk across much of the country. In the chart below, “SL” stands for short-term drought (typically less than six months) and “L” stands for long-term drought (typically more than six months).

Tornadoes

  • Tornado activity in 2012 was not strictly limited to the region commonly referred to as “Tornado Alley.” States located outside the central and southern Great Plains experienced a significant number of tornadoes this year. The chart below, from CoreLogic’s report, represents states with 30 or more tornadoes in 2012. States in orange are not typically considered part of “Tornado Alley.”
  • January 2012 was one of the most active Januaries since recording began in 1950, with a total of 79 tornadoes reported across the country.
  • In late February, tornadoes struck Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio. Harrisburg, Ill., experienced the most concentrated destruction, with more than 225 homes and businesses damaged or destroyed and an estimated $475 million in total damage.

“Because the strength, severity and geographic impact of natural disaster events will change from year to year, an understanding of patterns in hazard activity, geographic vulnerabilities and the properties exposed to each different type of disaster is crucial to managing risk,” said Dr. Thomas Jeffery, senior hazard scientist for CoreLogic.

As we’ve seen with the natural catastrophes of 2012, it is important for insurers, homeowners and businesses to develop a more comprehensive evaluation of risk — one that includes typically non-traditional locations.

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