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2010 Disasters Cost the World $218 Billion and the Insurance Industry $43 Billion

Swiss Re’s latest sigma study (full report; abstract) reveals that the final economic losses resulting from disasters (both natural and man-made) across the globe in 2010 was $218 billion — a number that dwarfs the $68 billion in damages caused by catastrophes in 2009.

With unprecedented flooding, Asia was the region worst hit, with $75 billion of the total occurring there. In relative terms, however, the fallout may be worse for the Latin America/Caribbean region. The $53 billion caused by the earthquakes in Haiti and Chile represents a staggering 1.1% of the region’s GDP. (By comparison, Asia’s billion in losses was only 0.

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28% of its GDP.)

Here is Swiss Re’s regional breakdown of the number of disasters, death toll and financial fallout.

Insured losses in 2010 totaled $43 billion as a whopping 10 different events caused insured losses of at least $1 billion. This was a huge jump from the $27 billion in insured losses for the global industry in 2009.

In all, 2010 had 304 catastrophic events.

The globe has seen a troubling trend of more natural catastrophes nearly every year in recent decades, and 2010 was no different with 167 natural disasters. On the flip side, the declining trend of man-made disasters the world has experienced since 2005 also held true, with just 137 man-made events. This is perhaps the only positive nugget of information in the entire report. (Although even this silver lining is bittersweet as you will see below when we look at the resulting death toll.)

Worst of all, of course, were the 304,000 people killed by disasters last year, making 2010 the third deadliest year since 1970 (the year Swiss Re first began collecting such data).

In 2010, severe catastrophes claimed significantly more lives than the previous year: around 304,000 were killed, compared to 15,000 in 2009. The deadliest event in 2010 was the Haiti earthquake in January, which claimed more than 222,000 lives. Nearly 56,000 people died during the summer heatwave in Russia. The summer floods in China and Pakistan also resulted in over 6,200 deaths.

Man-made disasters accounted for a small percentage of deaths last year, in relative terms, but the 6,446 killed was still a significantly higher number than the 5,970 who died in this manner in 2009. This fact puts a large blemish on the positive news that there were fewer man-made events. There may have been fewer incidents, but the ones that did occur were deadlier and that lower-occurrence/worse-outcome ratio should be going the other way in 2011 as safety, security and other risk management means strive to lessen the impact of catastrophes.

The man-made disasters that claimed the most victims in 2010 were a lead poisoning outbreak at an illegal gold mine in Nigeria in March (400 victims, mainly children), a stampede on a bridge at a festival in Cambodia in November (375 victims) and the collapse of a gold mine in Sierra Leone in March that killed approximately 200 people. Meanwhile, aviation and maritime disasters accounted for more than 800 and 1,100 victims respectively.

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Moving beyond the past, the globe has already been badly battered so far in 2011.

The Japanese earthquake and tsunami killed an estimated 18,500 people and caused upwards of $30 billion in insured losses alone, according to some experts. The Christchurch quake in New Zealand also ravaged the insurance industry, Australia floods cost billions and winter storms in the United States did plenty of damage of their own.

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Who knows what the final fallout will be from social revolutions in the Middle East, but it’s safe to say that there will be some claims.

All this and it’s not even hurricane season yet.

Hopefully, there is no way that more people will be killed by disasters in 2011 than we saw in 2010. But when it comes to economic losses, specifically insured losses, it is already shaping up to be a historic, market-altering year.

The Rising Cost of Disasters

A new report from Allianz analyzes the fact that the insurance claims from natural disaster are becoming more expensive. The key reason is not so much that there are more disasters, just more buildings, more development and more insurance. And as parts of the developing world, specifically China and India, continue to become more affluent, we can likely expect this to continue.

One way this is illustrated is by looking at the most powerful and more deadly earthquakes in each of the past ten years. In some years (2003, 2008 and 2011 so far), the strongest quake is also the most deadly.

But in other years, notably last year with the 8.

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8 magnitude earthquake in Chile killing 507 people and the 7.

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0 earthquake in Haiti killing more than 200,000, that has not been the case. The two main reasons for this is that the stronger quake either hits a very remote location where people don’t live or it hits a location with modern building codes and shake-resistant buildings.

Markus Treml, seismology expert at Allianz SE Reinsurance, explains.

The Energy factor shows the ratio between the seismic energy released by the two earthquakes. For example, the quake in Chile released 500 times more energy than the quake in Haiti. This table shows that those regions where tectonic plates clash are at highest risk. Six tremendous earthquakes happened in Indonesia in the last decade. All other earthquakes in this table – except Haiti – are also in high-risk zones. The amount of energy released does not necessarily mean more damage or casualties. Instead, weak buildings or secondary effects of earthquakes such as tsunamis or fires are the most common reason for high fatality rates.

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This was the case in Haiti in 2010, in Northern Sumatra in 2004 and will probably be the case for Japan.

As he mentions, the “energy factor” in the chart below represents how much more powerful the strongest earthquake was each year than the most deadly.

Rebuilding Japan May Cost More Than $300 Billion

According to the office of Prime Minister Naoto Kan, the cost of Japan’s rebuilding efforts following the earthquake may exceed $300 billion, which would easily make it the world’s most expensive natural disaster on record. (Hurricane Katrina, with an estimated $125 billion, inflicted the previous-record amount of damage.) There is often a big difference between early estimates and final tolls — particularly estimates coming from those who are directly affected — but the World Bank is also expecting the costs to come in around $250 billion.

Rebuilding after the 9.0-magnitude quake and tsunami, which ravaged the northeastern coast of the main Japanese island of Honshu, will cost up to $309 billion, Mr. Kan’s office said Wednesday. The World Bank, citing private estimates, said on Monday that the figure could reach $250 billion.

More on the insured loss estimates from the Japanese earthquake can be seen here.

Q&A: The Automotive Industry After the Quake

Though many industries were affected after the Japan earthquake and tsunami, there were some that were hit especially hard — electronics and automotive.

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To get a better glimpse of what the automotive industry was going through, I contacted Fred Hubacker, automotive supplier expert with Conway MacKenzie, a Detroit-based crisis management firm. The following is what transposed:

The earthquake and tsunami in Japan has created chaos for most companies
with operations in the area. How has the automotive industry fared. In your
opinion, was it the industry hardest hit?

FH: In general, the automotive industry has suffered tremendous loss from this
tragedy. Lost auto production, in Japan, could reach 335,000 units by the
end of this week (3/25). In addition, the effect is starting to be felt in
North America with overtime elimination and at least one assembly facility
down (GM Shreveport [Louisiana]) and downtime in Europe. Automotive seems to be the
hardest hit, at least on an immediate basis, however, the effect on other
industries such as electronics and aviation have not been widely reported
yet.

What were the major risks posed to automotive companies with operations
in the affected areas?

FH: The major risks include damage to their own assembly and component
manufacturing facilities, damage to suppliers producing many components
including electronics, petro-chemical products and powertrain components,
the loss of infrastructure including power, roads, water and transportation,
and of course, the issues created from the huge loss of human lives.

Was there one particular automotive company that was hit hardest?

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FH: Not entirely clear at this point but it appears that Honda has a heavier
concentration of suppliers in the quake zone than the other manufacturers.
Toyota, for example, is losing all Prius model production at the moment.

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How will such business interruptions in the automotive industry affect
other industries?

FH: Widespread component shortages and production downtime could ripple effect
to thousands of other auto component and logistics suppliers who were not
directly affected by the quake. Normal just-in-time suppliers will not be
able to continue production.

What can be done, if anything, to prevent such interruptions in the wake
of a catastrophe?

FH: Alternative sources can be developed, but generally that is a lengthy and
expensive process.