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The official start to the Atlantic hurricane season is about a month and a half away and many researchers are already predicting above average activity this year.
5 million people remain homeless in the country. The folks over at Slate have posted a must-see slide show that demonstrates how many Haitians are trying to make do with makeshift tents made out of bedsheets, sticks and scrap metal that seem unlikely to stand up to a modest breeze, let along hurricane-force winds. It is a stark reminder of how far Haiti still has to go in its recovery and another reason to hope that the country can be spared from another tragedy this summer.
This morning, many Americas awoke to the tragic news that an magnitude 6.9 (or 7.1, according state-run China Earthquake Networks Administration) earthquake had struck the western Chinese province of Qinghai. The initial reported death toll made it seem as though the population had perhaps dodged a bullet, but there have now been close to 500 casualties identified, with another 10,000 injured. And if we use history as a guide, these numbers may very well increase as well. Heart-breaking.
Still, when you consider that the 2008 Sichaun quake struck along the same Longmenshan fault system in a more populous region and killed some 90,000 people, things could have been worse. And in a year where another powerful, seismic event shakes the globe seemingly every week, that is at least one thing to be thankful for as the region tries to launch successful rescue and recovery efforts.
But has the earth really been producing more major quakes? It sure seems like it, and Newsweek gives a rundown of the recent evidence:
Yesterday, a 6.9-magnitude quake struck Qinghai, China, resulting in an estimated 400 dead and 10,000 injured. One week before that, a 7.7 tremor hit Northern Sumatra, Indonesia. Two days before that, a 7.2 shook Baja, Mexico. At the end of February, Chile shuddered under an 8.8 earthquake, little over a month after a 7.0 crumbled Haiti and killed nearly 230,000. With such a list, 2010 appears to be the year of the apocalypse or, at the very least, unnaturally active for these natural disasters.
Scientists say 2010 is not showing signs of unusually high earthquake activity. Since 1900, an average of 16 magnitude 7 or greater earthquakes — the size that seismologists define as major — have occurred worldwide each year. Some years have had as few as 6, as in 1986 and 1989, while 1943 had 32, with considerable variability from year to year.
With six major earthquakes striking in the first four months of this year, 2010 is well within the normal range. Furthermore, from April 15, 2009, to April 14, 2010, there have been 18 major earthquakes, a number also well within the expected variation.
“While the number of earthquakes is within the normal range, this does not diminish the fact that there has been extreme devastation and loss of life in heavily populated areas,” said USGS Associate Coordinator for Earthquake Hazards Dr. Michael Blanpied.
The last line is the key.
There aren’t more earthquakes. There are more people.
And that is why the need for better preparedness, building codes and emergency response is greater than ever. The worst-case events of the recent past may not actually be worse than the true true worst-case disasters we will see in the future. (For reference, here are the 11 deadliest earthquakes in history.) With the global population projected to reach nine billion by mid-century, there will be way more people who are — quite literally — atop shaky ground.
We have seen a similar phenomenon both in the United States and globally in terms of hurricane/windstorm risk. Whether or not hurricanes are actually increasing is debatable (and not something I want to get into here), but what is undisputed is that more people today live near the coast than ever before. Internal migrations and population booms in recent decades have left more people directly in the path of the storm.
And now, we are seeing how the same thing can — and will continue to — tragically play out near fault lines.
[All this recent storm] activity underscores just how precarious it is to live and work on the world’s coasts. Despite this, the United Nations has estimated that 37% of the world’s population lives within 100 kilometers (about 62 miles) of the coast. In theUnited States, coastal areas make up one-fifth of the landmass but are home to more than half of the population. And according to a paper by Charles Colgan, chief economist of the National Ocean Economics Project and professor of public policy and management at the University of Southern Maine, 75% of the U.S. domestic economy came from coastal areas in 2000. With these numbers steadily increasing, it is vitally important to understand the natural catastrophe risks related to coastal development, especially in light of what was a particularly active year for such events.
Our other editor Morgan O’Rourke wrote the piece and breaks down both tsunami risk and the memorable 2004 hurricane season if you want to read more on the topic.
UPDATE II: EQECAT, a leading catastrophe risk modeling company, released an update on the Qinghai quake, announcing that — as expected — the insured losses will be “minimal.”
Approximately 16,000 people were exposed to strong ground shaking, and hundreds of deaths have been reported, primarily due to the particular earthquake-vulnerability of the of the conventional mud-brick construction. Though this earthquake has caused immense consequences to the people affected, its significance among the insurance community will be minimal. The Yushu prefecture in which the earthquake was centered contributes a fraction of a percent to China’s GDP, with primary industries of herding and farming, as well as limited tourism related to Buddhist monasteries throughout the region.
Seismic activity in the Tibetan plateau is related to extrusion within the Eurasian plate resulting from convergence of the Indian plate along the Himalayan front. Extrusion-related earthquakes with moderate to large magnitudes, of which the magnitude 7.9 2008 Wenchuan earthquake was one example, are known to occur throughout central China from the Himalaya northward.
As you all know by now, a 7.2 magnitude earthquake struck along the Mexican/California border yesterday, severely damaging some structures in Mexico but causing only minor disruptions — and a big scare — for those in Southern California, despite being the biggest shock to hit the area in two decades. According to risk modeling company EQECAT, most of the economic damage occurred in Mexico (Mexicali, specifically) and overall losses will not exceed $1 billion, with insured losses totaling $300 million.
Although damage will have occurred in both Mexico and the US, the community of Mexicali is the largest urban area affected by this event, and damage there is expected to be widespread. The largest US city affected by the earthquake is El Centro, California, although significantly less damage is expected there than in Mexicali, due both to lower-intensity ground shaking and less-vulnerable structures.
Structures with greater earthquake resistance may have experienced slight to moderate damage. The intensity of shaking that occurred in El Centro and other US locations is below the threshold typically associated with structural damage.
This earthquake ruptured on the Laguna Salada fault, whose last major earthquake occurred in 1892, to the northwest of yesterday’s rupture.
Another historic earthquake that affected the region was the 1940 Imperial Valley (US) earthquake (M6.9), which caused strong shaking in the US cities of El Centro and Brawley. Buildings damaged in 1940 will have been repaired or replaced, and highly-vulnerable buildings were not reconstructed in the El Centro region.
However, border cities such as Mexicali had not experienced shaking as severe as from yesterday’s quake for nearly 100 years. Consequently, many buildings in Mexicali will have been at risk to major damage, particularly older commercial and residential structures, and particularly those built of unreinforced masonry.
Last Wednesday I blogged about the Chilean earthquake costing insurers up to $8 billion. That number has since been revised by Swiss Re — the world’s second largest reinsurer claims the impact on the sector would be between $4 and $7 billion.
Swiss Re says “it’s own losses from last month’s 8.8 magnitude earthquake would total about $500 million.” Germany’s Munich Re has said it expects to lose about $543 million from the Chilean disaster.
Analysts said that while the losses were large, they were probably not sufficient to reverse recent falls in the prices reinsurance companies charge insurance firms to cover natural disasters such as earthquakes or hurricanes. “Although it will almost certainly lead to a change in reinsurance prices for business in that region, it is not an industry-changing event on its own,” said Helvea analyst Tim Dawson.
Economic recovery from an earthquake is easier when the affected area’s economy is a strong one. Chile’s successful copper production industry was unaffected by the quake. And even though it’s wine, fish and paper pulp industry took a small hit, it’s overall economic outlook remains strong. That economy is now in the hands of incoming President Sebastian Pinera who takes office today. The billionaire conservative businessman and Harvard-trained economist has a tough job ahead of him but many feel he is well-equipped.
The earthquake that struck Chile on February 27 was not the biggest natural disaster the country has faced. Below is a video of the record-breaking 1960 earthquake that registered 9.5 on the Richter scale, the largest recorded earthquake in history — killing approximately 1,655 and causing $550 million in damage. The ravaging tsunamis that followed caused 61 deaths and $75 million worth of damage in Hawaii. Damage was reported in Japan and the U.S. as well. It is the only earthquake known as an “international disaster.”
