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Groundbreaking Flood Models for Latin America

Willis Re has introduced long-awaited flood models for Latin America through their research arm Willis Research Network (WRN). The models focused on large event scenarios for key cities such as Sao Paulo, Santiago and Bogota.

“The flood models provide South American insurance and reinsurance firms, as well as local governmental organizations, with new information that helps to identify and manage their exposure to flash floods caused by heavy rains and riverine overflow. Related results will be available for individual companies as well as the market as a whole and will have implications on planning, reinsurance and risk mitigation.”

The news was presented during the Geneva Association‘s 2nd Climate Change and Insurance meeting held in Sao Paulo last month by Dr. Juan Enlgand of Willis Re, who stated that these models might be used to consider the potential impact of climate change.

These models are greatly needed to say the least. Last year, floods and mudslides in Brazil caused 44 deaths and an estimated $1 billion in damages. In April, more than 250 died in Rio de Janeiro after torrential rains caused massive flooding and landslides. In June, more flooding in Brazil killed at least 41 and left more than 120,000 homeless. As Margo Black, CEO of Willis Re Brazil commented:

“Urban flood risk is an acute concern for Latin American re/insurers who have been challenged by growing losses and the lack of models to guide risk management.”

With Willis Re’s new models, it is hoped that future losses from almost-certain floods will be lessened in the ever-growing, major cities of South America.

A Revolution in Risk Modeling

Let’s hear it for Jesper Andersen and Toby Segaran, two geniuses who saw an opportunity after AAA-rated companies began to fail in the midst of the economic collapse. Their solution?  Sounds obvious — a more effective corporate credit risk modeling system.

So the two entrepreneurs and analytics gurus put their heads together to form freerisk.org, which is:

a project with the goal of making freely available the data, algorithms and tools necessary to perform risk modeling. We believe that risk management is too important to society to be an arcane subject or competitive advantage.

And the risk management community screams “Hallelujah!”

Most of the numbers are crunched by a team of volunteer finance fanatics who rate companies using crowdsourcing. The site even offers an open application programming interface (API), which lets users design their own risk-crunching models.

Will this site serve to forever correct the corrupt and biased ratings of agencies such as AM Best, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s?  Maybe not, but it’s a great alternative.