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RIMS Risk Forum India 2019: Top Risks and a Special Edition Magazine

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MUMBAI—”Why are we here?” asked RIMS CEO Mary Roth, welcoming over 100 risk professionals to the recent RIMS Risk Forum India 2019 in Mumbai. “If you look around this room, I think we all share very similar reasons. Risks are changing. Today’s risks seem more complex, and they hit our organizations faster. Think about our climate: heat waves, droughts, and other extreme weather events we’re experiencing. Data: it’s abundant and rich. Technology: it’s evolving overnight, and so are the related risks and opportunities.

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She added, “Expectations have never been greater for our organizations to quickly adapt and implement emerging technologies, address cyber exposures, brace for political change, and uphold ethical and social standards.”

The day’s sessions delved into critical issues like emerging technology, fraud, regulation, and building a risk culture, drawing upon expertise from panelists ranging from the C-suite to regulators themselves. Another key theme was clear to all in attendance: the rapidly shifting role of risk management in organizations across India, and the opportunities that new risks are presenting here.

top risks india 2019According to the new Marsh and RIMS “Excellence in Risk Management” report State of Risk Management in India 2019, which was unveiled at the forum, many of these issues dominate the risk landscape for organizations operating in the country. Indeed, cyberattacks, extreme weather, and data fraud or theft top the agenda for risk professionals in India this year.

Across 23 industries, a vast majority of senior risk professionals cited cyberrisk as their top concern, with 62% agreeing cyber poses the greatest risk to their organization—nearly four times the number who prioritized the runner up, weather events.

“India, like other countries, has been susceptible to malicious cyber attacks and there is growing awareness among corporates of the need to ensure they have appropriate cybersecurity controls,” said Sanjay Kedia, Country Head and CEO, Marsh India. “Firms need to keep up with the evolution of cyber threats if they are to capitalize on technology-based opportunities.

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This will require organizations to make additional investment to ensure they have adequate protection.

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As the profession matures and expands in the region, risk professionals looking to earn a seat at the table are focusing on their potential to serve as a key strategic partner driving these investments.

“Global business leaders who have engrained risk management into the fabric of the organization’s strategic planning processes have become better equipped to make informed, proactive, and rewarding decisions,” said RIMS CEO Mary Roth.

“India’s risk management community continues to demonstrate its strength, as well as its passion for developing advanced capabilities that support growth and innovation.”

risk management india special edition coverTo that end, these top issues are also covered in greater depth in a recent special issue of Risk Management curated specifically for risk professionals in India. Originally available exclusively for attendees of this year’s RIMS Risk Forum India, Risk Management Special Edition: India is now available for readers worldwide. Check it out today and, if you have any feedback, we would love your input to help inform future international coverage—email your thoughts to HTuttle@rims.org.

Venice Sees Near-Record Flooding

The city of Venice, Italy, faced the worst flooding of its famous canals since the devastating floods of 1966. Venice has suffered major economic impact from this new round of flooding, with Mayor Luigi Brugnaro predicting that the damage will cost hundreds of millions of Euros, and claiming climate change is to blame.

The recent flooding paralyzed many local businesses, forcing schools to close and disrupting the city’s bustling tourist industry. When the salt water of the canal rises, it can destroy centuries-old architecture and wipe out entire inventories.

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And since insurers have refused to provide flood coverage to Venetian businesses due to the ever-present flooding threat, costs can surge even more.

After the 1966 floods, the city began planning a sea barrier to combat the increasing flooding, called the Mose Project, but it has largely languished since then, reportedly due to corruption and delays. The barrier consists of gates that rise with the tide to prevent flooding at different inlets of the Venetian Lagoon, the bay surrounding Venice. The project has been formally underway since 2003 and has cost billions of Euros so far, with its engineers now predicting the barrier will be in place by the end of 2021, while others say 2022.

As the floods have gotten worse, Venetians have taken to the streets to protest the city’s mismanagement of flood prevention and response measures, as well as tourist cruise ships that produce waves they allege have eroded the city’s foundations. Venice has also seen a slow trickle of people leaving the city, as the constant flood risk has made life and business operation untenable for many. According to NBC News, of about 53,000 residents in the city’s center, Venice lost over 800 residents last year alone.

As with many recent extreme weather events around the world, some experts believe the floods may be the result of climate change. Environmental economist Shouro Dasgupta told NBC News that the frequency and severity of the city’s floods have increased significantly. “Since 1951 until today, we have had 21 severe flooding events,” he said.

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“Out of those 21, 13 have been since 2000 and, out of those 13, eight have been since 2012.”

The Venice city council reportedly rejected measures to combat climate change minutes before floodwaters actually reached the council chambers. Pictures of the flooded government chambers posted by city councilor Andrea Zanoni went viral—an ironic symbol of official inaction in the face of climate change’s effects. Zanoni told CNN that the council rejected measures to fund renewable energy, to make city buses (currently running on diesel) “more efficient and less polluting,” and to address the local use of polluting stoves and plastics.

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The council’s president, Roberto Ciambetti, refuted the assertion that the city’s government was ignoring climate change, citing budget provisions dedicated to fighting air pollution and smog.

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Last week, the United Nation’s Environment Program released a report stating that countries must increase their carbon-cutting measures dramatically to prevent warming of 3.2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. The report noted that the many of the world’s 20 richest countries, which are responsible for 78% of global emissions, have not committed to reducing their emissions to zero. Italy is one of the few countries that have made this commitment, albeit as a long-term target.

Travel Company Thomas Cook Collapses, Stranding Customers Worldwide

The world’s oldest travel company, UK-based Thomas Cook—which operates hotels and resorts around the world as well as its own airlines—all but collapsed this week, cancelling all of the company’s bookings (including flights and holiday packages), and closing its retail locations. The shutdown left 600,000 customers stranded, and Reuters called the effort to get passengers home “the biggest ever peacetime repatriation,” with 64 flights bringing 14,700 back to the United Kingdom on Monday, and hundreds of thousands more are expected to be transported over the next two weeks. The collapse also leaves more than 20,000 employees out of work.

Thomas Cook was buried in debt, partially due to its reluctance to adapt quickly to online travel booking and worries about Brexit, and lenders stopped funding the company. The company had requested £900 million ($1.1 billion) from its creditors and the Chinese company Fosun, Thomas Cook’s largest shareholder, but the deal did not materialize. According to The Guardian, as the company slipped further into debt, payment card companies like American Express and Barclays also limited cash collections and payment services to mitigate harm from a collapse.

The UK government also denied Thomas Cook a last-minute $310 million bailout, partially because, as UK business secretary Andrea Leadsom said, “Thomas Cook is sitting on trying to service £1.7 billion [$2.1 billion] of debt, and it would have been a waste of taxpayers’ money to be throwing good money after bad.” Reportedly, the Turkish government and some Spanish hotel businesses offered to front £200 million ($247 million) to save the company if the UK government would guarantee the investment. But the UK government rejected the deal, saying that the amount would not have sustained the company for more than two weeks.

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Leadsom said that she also asked for an expedited investigation into the corporate collapse by the UK’s Insolvency Service—a branch of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy that handles corporate liquidations and personal bankruptcy cases, including investigating companies’ bankruptcies for misconduct.  Others raised the issue of company higher-ups earning millions while the company sank, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson saying, “I have questions for one about whether it’s right that the directors, or whoever, the board, should pay themselves large sums when businesses can go down the tubes like that.” The UK’s Financial Reporting Council said that it may investigate Thomas Cook’s auditors, PwC and EY, in relation to the company’s collapse.

For stranded passengers, the UK government and other airlines are stepping in to ensure everyone can make it home. In 2017, when UK company Monarch Airlines went under, the government brought all passengers home, and it appears they will do the same in this case. Of the 600,000 stranded customers, 150,000 to 160,000 are British, and UK foreign secretary Dominic Raab told the BBC that the country will be arranging alternative flights for those travelers. Customers with tickets on Thomas Cook subsidiary airline Condor will be fine, as Condor will continue to function after a £380 million loan from the German government.

Others will be able to take seats on flights provided by a variety of airlines, including US-based provider Atlas Air, British Airways, Lufthansa, and possibly Malaysian Airlines, among others.

Regarding payment, things may get more complicated. According to the BBC, UK travelers who booked a package trip are covered by the Air Travel Organiser’s Licence (ATOL), an insurance program that will cover the cost of repatriating travelers.

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Those who just bought flights will reportedly have to appeal to their travel insurance or credit card companies for refunds. Hotels and resorts are also reportedly asking guests who booked through Thomas Cook to pay out of pocket for their stays, as the company’s payment is in question.

Trade Dispute Worries US Companies in China

As the Trump administration wages an economic battle with China in the form of reciprocating tariffs and other economic measures, it may not be a great time to be an American company operating in China. The US-China Business Council (USCBC), an organization made up of 200 U.

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S. companies that do business with China, released its annual member survey, finding the trade dispute—and the ongoing political tensions underlying it—are a huge concern for these companies and may be adding to worries about doing business in China.

Since the Trump administration declared a tariff on billions of dollars of Chinese exports in June 2018, the United States and China have traded retaliatory economic measures.

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Negotiators from the countries are preparing to meet in October, hoping to break a deadlock, even as each side moves to put pressure on the other’s economy.

Last month, President Trump announced increased tariff rates on Chinese imports, and tweeted that American companies were “hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME and making your products in the USA.” Some U.S. business groups condemned the moves and the president’s rhetoric, including the National Retail Federation. “It’s impossible for businesses to plan for the future in this type of environment,” said David French, the federation’s senior vice president of government affairs. These moves are an outgrowth of continued tensions, both economic and political, between the two countries.

It is no wonder then, that between 2018 and 2019, the percentage of USCBC members who said that their company’s business had been affected by US-China “trade tensions” increased from 73% to 81%. Of the reasons companies reduced or stopped planning investment in China in the past year, 60% of respondents cited “increased costs of uncertainties from US-China tensions.”

Among the real-world results of the trade dispute, USCBC members reported that the biggest impact was “lost sales due to tariffs implemented by China” (49%) and “shifts in suppliers or sourcing due to uncertainty of continued supply” (43%). The majority of the other concerns have to do with uncertainty or stigma attached to U.S. companies in China. Additionally, 26% of respondents projected that their current year revenue from China would decrease, compared to 9% in 2018.

The USCBC reported that “respondent optimism about China market prospects five years from now is at a historic low,” with the country’s stringent regulatory environment posing the largest driver of long-term doubt for U.S. companies. Indeed, the survey showed that, for 2019, 14% had a pessimistic or somewhat pessimistic five-year outlook, while 21% were neutral, an increase of 5% for both since 2018. However, the trade disputes are a major driver of short-term pessimism.

Also, when asked about cyber-related issues with doing business in China, 64% of respondents reported that “U.S.-China political tensions” were their biggest worry. And with good cause: According to cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike’s 2019 Global Threat Report, in the past year, the firm “observed an increasing operational tempo from China-based adversaries, which is only likely to accelerate as Sino-U.S. relations continue to worsen.”

And the impact reaches far broader than just companies that do business in China, like the members of the USCBC. As reported in the Risk Management article “The Business Impact of Trump Tariffs,” because many companies have complex, interconnected international supply chains, the trade dispute has a much broader effect on a wider array of businesses and industries. For example, a tariff on Chinese solar panels does not just hurt Chinese solar panel companies, it hurts U.S. manufacturers that supply parts for those panels, and U.S. companies that rely on components from Chinese manufacturers are affected as well.