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The Leaders of Italy’s Disaster-warning Agency Resign

The head of Italy’s disaster-warning committee, Luciano Maiani, has resigned in protest over the sentencing of seven of the organization’s members for underestimating the risks of a deadly 2009 earthquake. The commission’s vice president, Mauro Rosi, and president emeritus, Giuseppe Zamberletti, also resigned.

The April 2009 earthquake rocked the central Italian town of L’Aquila, killing 309 people and leaving thousands homeless. The seven defendants were members of the country’s Major Risks Committee, which met in L’Aquila March 31, 2009 — six days before the 6.

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3-magnitude quake struck. The seven have been found guilty of manslaughter, accused of providing “inaccurate, incomplete and contradictory” information after small tremors were first felt.

Maiami, one of Italy’s top physicists and a former head of the top partical physics laboratory Cern in Geneva, criticised the verdict as “a big mistake.”

“These are professionals who spoke in good faith and were by no means motivated by personal interests, they had always said that it is not possible to predict an earthquake,” he told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.

“It is impossible to produce serious, professional and disinterested advice under this mad judicial and media pressure. This sort of thing doesn’t happen anywhere else in the world.

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This is the end of scientists giving consultations to the state.”

The seven defendants were given six-year prison sentences and they, along with the Prime Minister’s office, were ordered to pay 7.8 million euros in damages.

There has been an outcry from both the Italian and international scientific community, who say these individuals shouldn’t be punished if their forecasts don’t come true.

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The American Association for the Advancement of Science has has called the convictions “unfaire and naive,” while the The Guardian has written that “few scientists will want to take responsibility for similar statements in the future.”

Scientific American takes a different stance, however. Risk perception consultant David Ropeik, in a guest blog post for the publication, feels the Italian scientists were at fault for failing to communicate the risks to the public. It’s tough to disagree with Ropeik.

The meeting that was held six days before the earthquake was called after a swarm of tremors shook the area. Seeing this as no major reason to expect an earthquake, the group gathered for what they called a media operation — basically, a meeting to calm the public’s fears, when what they should have been doing was preparing the public in case a major quake were to follow the tremors. Even worse is the following:

In a leaked telephone call, Guido Bertolaso, then head of the civil protection agency, told a local official that he was calling the meeting as “more of a media operation.” The top civil protection official at the meeting, Bernardo De Bernardinis, said in a television interview that residents faced “no danger” and should sit back with a glass of wine – recommending a Montepulciano.

Six days after that Montepulciano recommendation, 309 people were dead. And though a six-year sentence seems too harsh, someone must be held accountable — not for failing to predict, but for nonchalantly failing to educate and warn the public of what could occur.

September Issue of Risk Management Now Online

The September issue of Risk Management is now online here.

Included are the following features:

This issue’s columns cover:

If you enjoy what you seen online, you can subscribe to the print edition to enjoy even more content.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below. And stay tuned to the blog for even more coverage in the future. Lastly, you can follow the magazine on Twitter, “like” us on Facebook and join our LinkedIn group.

Most Companies Do Not Expect – And Remain Unprepared For – Lawsuits Against Their Directors

Seeing a chasm between risk perception and risk reality has ceased to surprise me. Virtually every survey, study and report I come across reveals that executives either (a.) don’t understand the risks they take or (b.) understand the risks they take but just opt not to do anything about them.

Well, here is another surprisingly-not-surprising revelation: 80% of public companies think it is unlikely that their directors and officers will be sued. This is despite the fact that, according to the latest “Chubb Public Company Risk Survey,” 23% of companies have already been sued, and the rising risks of more lawsuits in the future due to rising mergers-and-acquisition activity and increasing enforcement actions related to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA).

Let’s look at the latter part first: FCPA.

The Walmart bribery scandal in Mexico has brought this once-dormant law into mainstream focus, but it is the Justice Department’s behavior in recent years that highlights the growing risk for companies. In 2010, DOJ imposed $1.7 billion in fines on companies for FCPA violations/settlements. By contrast, that number was just $2.7 million in 2002.

As a multinational company, you can’t look at these numbers and see anything but a federal priority to stamp out illicit corporate behavior overseas. And that means more risk of fines, lawsuits and settlements that could be even more damaging to a reputation as they are to a bottom line. Insurance may protect against some of this, but not all.

“An FCPA investigation can cost a company millions of dollars, and violators have faced enormous fines,” said Evan Rosenberg, senior vice president and global specialty lines manager for Chubb. “D&O policies can cover directors’ and officers’ defense costs for an alleged FCPA violation and fines for non-willful violations of the act.” (For more on that, here is a good breakdown of all the FCPA insurance issues companies should be aware of.)

Regardless, more than two-thirds of survey respondents (78%) are not worried about an investigation due to an FCPA violation, and 13% have decreased the financial and human resources they devote towards mitigating FCPA-related losses.

The mergers and acquisitions risk is also foolish not to consider.

But … and stop me if you’ve heard this one before … most companies are acting foolishly.

A full 64% of the survey respondents have been involved in a merger, acquisition or restructuring over the past two years. Yet, more than one-quarter of companies (26%) do not have documented merger and acquisition protocols and have no plans to develop them in the next 12 months.

“While M&A-related lawsuits may be covered by the company’s directors and officers liability policy, documented protocols may help improve the company’s defense in court or result in a lower settlement amount,” said Rosenberg.

The Greatest Risks of the Greek Debt Crisis

The ongoing debt crisis in Greece continues to spur unrest, move markets and threaten the very fabric that connects the eurozone. Exactly how much effect a Greek default — and the domino effect in lending costs it would have throughout Europe — would have on the U.S. business world remains unclear.

But a good rundown from CNN Money offers a list of the three biggest risks Greek default presents for the United States: (1) U.S. bank exposure to sovereign debt, (2) a pullback in U.S. exports, and (3) U.S. business slow down.

To me, the last one seems the most threatening. Only now is the U.S. economy beginning to make any headway on replacing the jobs lost after the 2008 meltdown — and even this “recovery” remains mild, at best.

Here is how CNN breaks down that risk.

Many products sold by U.S. companies in Europe are made in Europe.

And losses there are already taking a bite out of U.S. multinational firms, from automakers General Motors and Ford Motor, to cereal maker Kellogg and smaller niche companies like watch and accessories maker Fossil, whose stock tumbled 40% in a single day after reporting weak European sales earlier this month.

If the value of the euro versus the dollar continues to drop, U.S. goods are going to become more expensive by comparison to those made by European rivals. And that could cut into U.S. business sales and exports around the globe if countries can get cheaper imports from Europe.

Furthermore, if export-driven economies like China see demand from Europe slow, it increases a risk of a so-called “hard landing” for the Chinese economy.

Given the importance of emerging market growth worldwide, a hard landing in China and other export markets poses a significant threat of creating a global recession, according to a report earlier this year from the World Bank.

And the with U.S. GDP of 2.2% in the most recent quarter, it is doubtful the United States can avoid a recession of its own if there is a true global slowdown.

There’s the “R” word resurfacing. For the United States—not just economies across the pond. In 2012, there is no greater risk facing American companies.