Category Archives: International

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Ukraine Crisis Poses Business Disruption Risk

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For any organization with involvement in Russian territory, recently imposed sanctions due to the unpopular Crimean conflict introduces new potential complications affecting operations, supply chain, personnel and communications. The federation is becoming more assertive, bold and confrontational in areas ranging from financial investment to geographic dominance. As a result, there is now a legitimate and immediate reason for evaluating the strength of foreign operational resiliency and sustainability in the context of Russian sanctions.

Fundamental Crisis
Recently, the U.S. passed a bill with overwhelming majority to solidify sanctions over Russia for its forced annexation of Crimea. According to the New York Times, the Obama administration listed 17 banks, energy companies, and investment accounts in its attempts to restrict Russian involvement with the United States. These particular sanctions will freeze any assets in the United States and bar U.S. citizens from doing business with the individuals and firms listed. Additionally, the United States will cut off the export or re-export of American-made products to 13 of the sanctioned companies and will deny export licenses for high-tech products potentially used by the Russian military.

Implications for Risk Managers
Among myriad potential disruptions, a dominant cause for concern during the Crimean conflict is now disruption of connectivity, both locally and at scale. Given the nature of the new “cloud economy” and virtual infrastructure most businesses rely upon, one potential impact of Russian sanctions could be to the fragile structure of the new interconnected world.

The shutdown of communications lines means inaccessibility with international operations and IT servers.

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A loss of network could be significant and substantial. However detrimental this would be, loss of physical network (such as personnel) can be just as damaging, and planning for consequences of this nature often take far more ingenuity than utilizing a simple off-site data backup center.

The Human Network
People are often the most valued and unique asset an organization must protect. If particular sanctions impede the right of Western workers to hold employment in Russia, this could mean inevitable cuts to staff, layoffs and displacement as the company pursues relocation to an unsanctioned territory.

The case of an international workforce disruption raises other questions for companies to consider. For example, how do we replace people? Can we reassign processes? Is there a way to efficiently cross-train or retrain personnel who are still here?

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Have we spoken with local managers, contractors, and operation people to find out what is a critical process or component, and what is not?  These questions will give businesses a framework to move forward.

How are Experts Responding?
Methodically outlining potential risks prior to the events actually happening is key obviously, but oftentimes visualizing scenarios of this nature is tricky. It is impossible to predict exactly what will happen, but in a worse case scenario (specifically relating to Ukraine), any fallout between the West and Russia could result in trade sanctions affecting everything from banks, to human resources, to communication infrastructure.

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Understanding this and moving forward with a contingent plan of action for Russian operations will create a less threatening situation and a more stabilized outcome for businesses who are affected.

Writing on the Wall
As organizations look for answers among the uncertainty that is currently playing out in Russia and Ukraine, one thing is absolute; businesses survive and succeed in fragile situations when a culture of resiliency is embraced. Contingency plans are useless if there isn’t the knowledge, experience and understanding of how to use them.

Sanctions are nothing new and neither is business disruption due to political conflict, though, if any highlight were to come from the current situation in Russia and Ukraine, it would be the need to proactively respond to imminent threats towards business continuity. In reality, for multinational companies heavily invested in the region at this point, there no longer is a choice.

Staying Safe at the World Cup

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Brazil is steadily moving into the international spotlight as it prepares to host the World Cup, which begins next week on June 12, and the Olympics in 2016, both of which are forecasted to showcase its status as an emerging economic power. On the other hand, these events are also likely to amplify security risks in the country.

The primary risk for travelers during the World Cup is the rise of common crime in host cities.

Often times, foreigners are perceived as wealthier and thus make attractive targets for pickpockets and armed robbers as well as express and traditional kidnappers. Risk managers should be aware that preparing travelers for these crimes is the best mitigation strategy.

Beyond crime, civil unrest is also a threat. Many groups already have plans in place to protest; the magnitude of their demonstrations and effectiveness of the government’s response are factors that are unpredictable. Widespread rallies may result in localized and violent clashes with police, especially in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, where they may be larger and more frequent.

These demonstrations can also routinely halt traffic, which can force an ambulance to take an hour to reach a hospital that may only be 20 minutes away. Risk managers are advised to plan an alternative route, especially in a medical crisis.

The Proactive Risk Manager
Due diligence and intelligence are every risk manager’s responsibility, but conveying this information to travelers is critical. This includes offering pre-trip training which teaches travelers how to be self-aware, and addresses visa requirements, language and cultural information, and any relevant medical and security threats. Simultaneously, all risks, mitigation strategies and contingency plans should be clearly communicated to relevant departments.

During trips to and within Brazil, risk managers should be aware of any itinerary delays and security incidents.

Knowing where travelers are at all times is vital; traveler tracking services, often offered by assistance providers, can help enormously in case of an emergency.

Following Best Practices
As we approach the World Cup, travelers and risk managers should expect a heightened security presence of police and other law enforcement officials, especially in all 12 host cities. That said, it is easy to fall into a false sense of security. Using common sense safety precautions can help to mitigate risks and ensure peace of mind:

  • Avoid exposing flashy jewelry or high-price items such as cell phones, laptops, cameras, etc.
  • Always carry extra medications with you.
  • Choose an indoor ATM so you don’t fall prey to express kidnappers or muggers.
  • Carry only a small amount of cash with you.

    Leave passport and credit cards in your hotel’s safe.

  • Do not walk alone at night. It is best to travel in groups.
  • Avoid public transportation. Hotels can assist in hailing “radio taxis” (taxis you call ahead of time to arrange a pick-up rather than cabs on the street).
  • Take out comprehensive travel and medical insurance before your travel.
  • Remember the local equivalent to “911″ is divided up into three services: 190 – Policia (Police), 192- Ambulancia (Ambulance), and 193- Bombeiros (Fire).
  • Carry the number of the nearest English speaking hospital and an emergency contact on you.

For more on staying safe at the World Cup, read our cover story in this month’s issue of Risk Management.

Piracy Incidents Down

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Steps taken by the international maritime community have paid off, reducing the threat of piracy in the Arabian Sea’s Gulf of Aden, according to the Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty Safety and Shipping Review 2014. The number of ships seized and hostages taken was down significantly in 2013. According to the International Maritime Bureau (IMB), piracy at sea is at the lowest level in six years—264 attacks were recorded worldwide in 2013, a 40% drop since Somali piracy peaked in 2011. There were 15 incidents reported off Somalia in 2013, including Gulf of Aden and Red Sea incidents—down from 75 in 2012, and 237 in 2011 (including attacks attributed to Somali pirates in the Gulf of Aden, Red Sea and Oman).

But while the number of incidents in this region has gone down, piracy attacks in other areas have increased in frequency, notably Indonesia and off the west coast of Africa. While most of these Indonesian attacks remain local, low level opportunistic thefts carried out by small bands of individuals, a third of the incidents in these waters were reported in the last quarter of 2013, meaning there is potential for such attacks to escalate into a more organized piracy model unless they are controlled.

The Gulf of Guinea region accounted for 48 of the 264 incidents in 2013. Of these, Nigerian pirates and armed robbers were responsible for 31 incidents, including two hijackings, 13 vessel boardings and 13 vessels fired upon. One crew member was killed and 36 kidnapped—the highest number of Nigerian kidnappings for five years, according to the IMB.

The World’s Most Resilient Cities

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Toronto most resilient city

How do you invest, source and expand responsibly?

Picking the right place to do so may make or break your efforts. At least, that’s the theory of London-based property company Grosvenor. With that in mind, the company analyzed 160 data sets to assess the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the world’s “50 most important cities” to determine which are the most resilient, with resilience defined as “the ability of cities to continue to function as centers of production, human habitation, and cultural development despite the challenges posed by climate change, population growth, declining resource supply, and other paradigm shifts.”

Grosvenor first measured vulnerability by looking at climate threats, environmental degradation (including pollution and overconsumption due to sprawl), resources, infrastructure and community cohesion. For the next half of the equation, according to the Guardian, “Adaptive capacity, or a city’s ability to prevent and mitigate serious threats, was a combination of governance (high value here on democracy, freedom of speech, community participation, transparency, accountability and long-term leadership vision), strong institutions, learning capacity (including good technical universities), disaster planner and finally funding (from budget to credit and access to global funding).”

Of particular note, eight of the weakest 20 cities are in BRIC countries, and some of the cities where population and industry growth are waiting to boom may pose the greatest risks.