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Canada Approves National Bitcoin Regulation

Canada bitcoin regulation

In our May cover story, “Making Cents of Bitcoin,” I wrote about the risks of bitcoin and other digital currency given the current lack of regulation or oversight. Without more guidance and structure for digital currency, the extreme risks of volatile values and considerable illegal activity are simply too high to generate viable widespread adoption.

As Cyrus R. Vance, district attorney of New York County, said, “Without stronger government oversight in this area I believe we are going to be permitting cybercriminals, identity thieves and even traffickers of child pornography and other criminal actors to operate in what would be a digital Wild West.”

In March, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced plans to require intermediaries that facilitate digital currency exchange to verify customers’ identities and report suspicious transactions. Here in the United States, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network issued guidance stating that anyone operating an exchange for virtual currencies would be considered to be running a money transmitting business.

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By doing so, FinCEN required exchanges to collect information about customers, as mandated under Bank Secrecy Act regulations intended to prevent transactions through anonymous accounts. The IRS also announced plans to tax bitcoin as income or property, not currency. Yet no country had really taken action to regulate virtual currency.

Now, Canada may become the first nation to try. One provision of a new Canadian budget law amends anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing laws to regulate virtual currencies, the Wall Street Journal reported. The measure makes digital currencies subject to the same reporting requirements as other money-services businesses.

According to the WSJ:

In addition to the money services business treatment, digital-currency exchanges will have to register with the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada, or Fintrac. With that registration comes requirements to report suspicious transactions, keep certain records, implement compliance programs and determine if any of their customers are politically exposed people. And the law is extraterritorial: It captures foreign companies that have a place of business in Canada and those directing services at Canadians.

“Canada approving a national Bitcoin law as a matter of anti-money laundering law should not be discounted,” Canadian barrister and solicitor Cristine Duhaime wrote on her firm’s website. “It is important not only because it may be the first Bitcoin national law but also because most countries may now follow suit because of their membership in the Financial Action Task Force.”

The FATF is an international body that sets standards on anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing policy. Failure to comply with those standards can result in a country being blacklisted as high-risk or uncooperative, making it more expensive and more difficult to do business with member states.

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According to Duhaime, the five most important aspects of the new legislation are:

  1. Regulates Bitcoin as MSB – Bitcoin dealing, more specifically referred to as “dealing in virtual currencies” in Bill C-31, will be subject to the record keeping, verification procedures, suspicious transaction reporting and registration requirements under the PCMLTFA as a money services business.
  2. Does not define “dealing in virtual currencies” – The phrase “dealing in virtual currencies” was left undefined and it is not known what the defined term will encompass in terms of business activities once defined by regulation.
  3. Registration with FINTRAC – Bitcoin dealers will be required to register with FINTRAC and if successfully registered, to implement a complete anti-money laundering compliance regime.
  4. Captures foreign Bitcoin companies targeting Canada – Bill C-31 extends to: (a) entities that have a place of business in Canada; and (b) entities that have a place of business outside Canada but who direct services at persons or entities in Canada. Bitcoin businesses in Canada, however, that provide services to persons or entities outside of Canada are exempt from Bill C-31 for those external services.
  5. Prohibits banks from opening accounts for Bitcoin entities if unregistered – Under Bill C-31, banks will be prohibited from opening and maintaining correspondent banking relationships with Bitcoin dealers that are not registered with FINTRAC. This is an extremely important aspect of Bill C-31 and Bitcoin businesses should ensure they understand what a correspondent banking relationship is and how it can affect the provisions of banking services to them.

Implementation of the new Canadian law may take up to a year, Dunhaime wrote.

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The Many Paths to a Career in Risk

Over the years, I’ve had no shortage of people ask me how they can get my job as a senior risk leader. They see the possibilities and get a strong sense that risk management just might be a pretty interesting career track. Oftentimes these folks are sitting in some insurance related sub-function within the broader industry, anything from claims to loss control to underwriting and brokerage. Interestingly, many people who have had this experience (who are essentially developing specialists in these sub-functions) have frequently found that skill transferability from these specialized areas, to their “profession,” was often fraught with hurdles.

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I have seen a parallel mind-set throughout much of my career in various industries in which I sought alternate employment. Most commonly it was in the manufacturing or health care sectors that insisted that any leader in their ranks, most especially a risk manager, needed to come from within their industry. They were the true believers and were typically inflexible about this minimum requirement.  They believed their industries were just too specialized and unique for a risk manager from another industry to succeed. They would argue that they didn’t want to invest in allowing the development of the full skill-sets or that their world could or should be learned by those coming from other industries, especially for a mid- to senior-level manager.

Needless to say, I disagreed vehemently with this view and with others in the insurance industry holding these inflexible positions, often to their detriment. Happily, in the last five years, some more progressive leaders in certain industries like health care are beginning to revise these positions in favor of seeing the value in having the new eyes, ears and perspectives that can only come from those experienced in industries other than their own. A good trend indeed.

As a practical matter, I have to mention that my most recent career move into a more strategic, brand enhancing role with a third party administrator has flummoxed a few peers and friends. These folks saw me as moving in the wrong direction, when in fact I was taking a substantive leap forward into long term strategic contributions that have, in fact, been the perfect segue to where I’d wanted to move at this point in my risk career. Coincidentally, my forte since 2001 and the future of the discipline, enterprise risk management, calls for a very specific move in a strategic direction that aligns with the long term interests of enterprises and their commitment to mission accomplishment.

So is there a preferred best strategy to preparing for a career in risk management? The truth is that while many of us developed the skills and experience that have been most valuable by rotating through the various insurance industry disciplines, there are now myriad ways to find your path into risk management and make it a career. From finance to legal to audit and especially spending time in operations, all these experiences pave part of the way toward success. They are a portion of what risk leaders need most to succeed in this era of a broader more diverse practice of risk management, call it enterprise risk management, strategic risk management, international risk management or just plain risk management, as I prefer.

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In fact, a successful risk manager is one who needs a broad exposure to most core functions common to almost all entities of any complexity. At the end of the day, it’s hard to go wrong in preparing for a risk career, no matter where you spend time getting knowledge about the many sources of exposure that must be “risk managed.”

Cybercrime Costs Global Economy Up to $575 Billion

Cybersecurity

Cybercrime costs the global economy about $445 billion every year, though the damage may be up to $575 billion, according to a new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies and software company McAfee. Further, the damage to businesses exceeds the $160 billion loss to individuals.

“Cyber crime is a tax on innovation and slows the pace of global innovation by reducing the rate of return to innovators and investors,” said Jim Lewis of CSIS. “For developed countries, cyber crime has serious implications for employment.”

Indeed, the biggest economies have suffered the most – the losses in the United States, China, Japan and Germany totaled at least $200 billion.

Businesses are sitting up and taking notice. A recent survey from Munich Re found that 77% of mid-size to large companies have or will have cyberinsurance in the next year. Yet, of the 23% that do not plan to buy insurance, nine out of 10 said this was because current coverage available does not meet their needs or would not be relevant for their business.

What are companies doing to manage cyber risk? Munich Re found:

Munich Re graph

Reputational damage has emerged as one of the biggest sources of loss from cyberbreach. Respondents said the biggest risk an incident would have pose to their business’s reputation is:

Munich Re reputational risk of cyberbreach

 

Predicting the World Cup Winner with Monte Carlo Simulation

Soccer fans around the world are gearing up for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, which starts tomorrow when the home team kicks off against Croatia in Sao Paulo. Many will be putting money on the various matches—basing their bets on national pride or gut feelings.

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There is another option, however.

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If you have the data and the inclination, you could also utilize a Monte Carlo simulation to place your wager. Recently, Fernando Hernández, a trainer and consultant at risk and decision analysis software provider Palisade Corporation, did just that, utilizing this computerized decision-making method to determine a more mathematically accurate pick for the 20th FIFA World Cup champion.

To create a model, Hernández gathered data from FIFA’s records of the past four years, which ranks over 200 national teams. Armed with the historic strengths and weaknesses of each team, he classified them into ranked categories (e.g., a fifth-ranked team is more likely to beat a tenth-ranked team). More specifically, in a match-up between a high-ranked and an intermediate-ranked team, the better team has an 86% chance of winning, a 7% chance of tying and a 7% chance of losing.

Hernández then modeled the first 48 games of the tournament—these are played in the “group stage,” in which eight groups of four teams play against each other in  round robin-style matches to determine who proceeds to the final 16 games. In this stage, a win garners three points, a loss gets zero points, and a tie gives one point to teach team. Teams advance by tallying these points.

If two teams end up with the same number of points, the team with the greatest number of net goals (goals scored minus goals received) will continue. If a tie persists, then the net goals scored in the head-to-head match between the tying teams are considered. Finally, a coin toss determines the final winner if a tie still continues. All those that make it past the group-stage go on to the single-elimination tournament which determines the final World Cup winner.

Hernández combined the group-stage rules with the game and team performance records, dating from January 2011 to present, into his model.

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He added the crucial element of home-team advantage by including data on all points scored at home games vs. away games for each team.

By running 50,000 iterations in a Monte Carlo simulation and mapping out the likely winners in a decision tree, Hernández created a model that depicts the probabilities of different teams winning at different stages, and calculates the overall odds of each team winning the championship.

The results vary, depending on whether home-field advantage is computed.

Without considering home advantage, Germany came out the most likely winner, with a 19.9% chance, and Spain as runner up with 16.1%.

However, when home-field advantaged is considered, a very different outcome emerges. Brazil—not surprisingly–comes in as the probable champion, with an overall 17% chance. Spain is again the runner up at a 12% probability. Germany drops all the way down to a 6 % probability of raising the trophy. Other high-scoring probabilities include:

  • Switzerland and Greece 8%
  • Colombia 7%
  • Argentina 6%
  • Uruguay 5%.

The United States, by contrast, is given just 2% chance at victory.

As a Costa Rican native, Hernández had to let the numbers guide his betting choices over nationalism. “I am still not sure whether I would bet on my country in the office pool,” he said. he calculated that his home country has only a 23% chance of making it to the second round, and a one-in-440 odds of winning overall.