Category Archives: Property/Casualty

New Forecasting Method Predicts 75% Chance of El Nino in 2014

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There is a 75% chance of an El Niño event in 2014, according to an early warning report published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). The researchers used a new method that uses network analysis to predict weather systems up to a year ahead, instead of the usual six-month maximum of other approaches. The model successfully predicted the absence of El Niño in 2012 and 2013.

El Niño events are characterized by a warmer Pacific Ocean, which results in a disruption to the ocean-atmosphere system. This can lead to warmer temperatures worldwide, droughts in Australia and Southeast Asia, and heavy rain and flooding in parts of the U.S. and South America. If such an event occurred toward the end of 2014, the increased temperatures and drought conditions could persist through 2015.

The researchers suggested that their work might help farmers and government agencies by giving them more time to prepare and to consider investing in flood- or drought-resistant crops.

“Farmers might find it worthwhile to invest in drought- or flood-resistant varieties of crops,” Josef Ludescher and Armin Bunde told Businessweek. “A strong El Niño event in late 2014 can make 2015 a record year for global temperatures.”

The current highest record global temperatures date back to 1998, during the last strong El Niño. Given the continued increases in baseline temperature around the world, an El Niño event this year could lead to the record-breaking heat.

Last week, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center issued a similar warning. While the forecasters expect neutral conditions through the spring, a change in temperatures may “portend warming in the coming months.

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El Nino Phenomenon

Department of Transportation Orders Investment in V2V Communication for Cars

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Car Accident

In this month’s Risk Management magazine, Katherine Heires discussed the risks of the Internet of Things —the increasing interconnectedness facilitated by a vast array of products incorporating smart technology and the internet to customize the user experience.

Automation in cars can control just about every component of the driving experience, right down to music, speed and temperature. But so much assistance can also lead drivers to tune out behind the wheel. “Lost in the debate around autonomous technology is that these features pull workload away from the driver and can result in under-arousal,” Bryan Reimer, who researches driver efficiency issues at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told the New York Times.

So carmakers are now developing technology to help keep drivers alert. According to the New York Times:

Both versions analyze the way a driver acts behind the wheel, taking note of over 70 parameters in the first few minutes of a drive. As the drive continues, the system continuously compares driver activity—including steering movement, steering speed and control operation—to the baseline. It also considers factors like crosswinds and road condition, so as not to be misled by differences in driver response that are related to weather or terrain.

A display on the dashboard provides a continuously updated analysis of attention level and elapsed time since the last stop. If driver inattention approaches a critical level, an alert is issued and a rest stop encouraged.

The government is also now turning to the Internet of Things to try to keep drivers safer. On Monday, the Department of Transportation announced plans to move forward with V2V technology that allows vehicles to communicate with each other in order to prevent collisions. Operating on a dedicated radio spectrum similar to WiFi, V2V systems utilize transponders that can communicate a car’s location, direction and speed up to 10 times per second to surrounding cars. Vehicles equipped with this technology can alert their drivers to potential collisions and some could automatically slow down to avoid accidents.

According to the DOT, V2V could prevent up to 80% of accidents that don’t involve drunk drivers or mechanical failure. “Vehicle-to-vehicle technology represents the next generation of auto safety improvements, building on the life-saving achievements we’ve already seen with safety belts and air bags,” said U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx. “By helping drivers avoid crashes, this technology will play a key role in improving the way people get where they need to go while ensuring that the U.S. remains the leader in the global automotive industry.”

TRIA Will be Renewed, P-C Panel Agrees

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Photo by Don Pollard

NEW YORK—Insurance industry experts in a panel discussion agreed that while terrorism risks are changing, they believe the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA), set to expire Dec. 31, 2014, will be reauthorized by Congress. In fact, a poll taken at the annual Property/Casualty Insurance Joint Industry Forum found that 93% of attendees believe TRIA will be renewed.

“In the U.S., we’re moving away from the risk of catastrophic-scale terrorism. But we are probably more likely to have the Boston Marathon type of terrorism,” said Stephen Flynn, professor of political science and founding director of the Center for Resilience Studies at Northeastern University in Boston.

The reasons are that, “The know-how to carry out these low-end acts is pervasive and the opportunities for this type of terrorism are relatively high. Because they can be conducted on a small scale, they are difficult to plan for in advance and intercept,” he explained, adding, “In my mind there is no question that the feds need to play a backstop role. This isn’t a natural market. It’s not a natural disaster environment. The role an industry can play in educating about risk and engaging mitigation measures is a very useful public policy outcome of the feds playing a role as a backstop.”

The six-member panel was moderated by Julie Rochman, president and CEO of the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety.

Robert H. Easton,executive deputy superintendent of the insurance division at the New York Department of Financial Services [pictured above with John Huff, director of the Missouri Department of Insurance] said, “We would like to see TRIA in some form become permanent so we don’t have to have this discussion every few years.”

Easton added, “The political reality is that this is unlikely to occur, but our view is that if anybody should be taking one of the more extreme views it is New York. The program has been critical to insuring that there is sufficient capacity in the marketplace.”

Huff agreed that it needs to be renewed, but noted that TRIA should not be a “big state, small state issue.” Rather it should be supported by states of all sizes. “Missouri has a significant urban, suburban and rural presence,” he said.

Jay Gelb, managing director and senior equity analyst for Barclays believes TRIA will be reauthorized at the last minute. If reauthorization doesn’t happen, “It would be concerning from an investment viewpoint,” however, “Insurers could underwrite the exposure or limit their concentrations in target areas, especially in lines where losses cannot be excluded, such as workers compensation.”

Matthew Mosher, senior vice president and chief rating officer for the A.M. Best Company observed that while insurers can, indeed, manage the risk of terrorism, and even avoid it, “what does that do for the nation as a whole? When you look at the impact of TRIA, it comes down to how much risk you want individuals to absorb. At this point insurers are not able to provide a large amount of coverage without a backstop.”

In terms of adjustments to the program, Easton said, “We would like to see the inclusion of cyber as a risk that TRIA addresses. The cyber world is very different today than even 12 or 13 years ago.”

For the poll questions and full survey results, go to 2014 Property/Casualty Insurance Joint Industry Forum Questionnaire.

New Year, New Natural Disaster Emergency Plans

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Along with January renewals and analyzing whether existing policies offer sufficient coverage, the new year is a perfect reminder to review company-wide emergency plans. While 2013 may have been a relatively light year for catastrophe losses, there’s no reason to assume 2014 will be, too.

Check out this infographic from Boston University’s Masters in Specialty Management program for a jump-start on identifying the risks of natural disaster and updating plans for how to handle any emergency:

Survive a Natural Disaster