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Going Lo-Fi At Sea May Mitigate Cyberrisk

Cyberthreats have become seaborne in recent years, and preventative measures are on the radars of governments and the shipping industry.

GPS and other electronic systems have proven to help ensure safe and accurate navigation, but they have also put digital bullseyes on ship decks. These technology upgrades have unwittingly exposed ships to cyberrisk because their signals are weak enough for remote perpetrators to jam.

When ships and crew members rely solely on GPS systems, they can be at the mercy of a cyberhacker seeking to provide wrong positions (or “spoof”), endanger the crew and their cargo, or hold the crew, cargo or sensitive information for ransom.

These risks are exacerbated by the fact that ships typically do not have automatic backup systems, and younger crew members are increasingly reliant upon the newer electronic navigation tools.

Allianz’s Safety and Shipping Review 2017 highlighted the growing threat of cybercrime in the sector, and noted the increasing level of activity in the last five years. For example, World Fuel Services fell victim to an online bunkering scam in 2014 when it agreed to participate in a tender for a large amount of fuel from what it believed to be the United States Defense Logistics Agency. Cybercriminals collected $18 million from that successful impersonation. In 2016, hundreds of South Korean vessels had to return to their ports after North Korea allegedly jammed their GPS signals.

The report noted that most maritime cyberattacks have been aimed at breaching corporate security, rather than taking control of vessels, but warned that such attacks could occur.

Captain Rahul Khanna, head of marine risk consulting at Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty, noted in the report that more, larger-scale attacks are imminent if the risks are not appropriately addressed. “We can’t put IT security on the backburner,” Khanna said. “Just imagine if hackers were able to take control of a large container ship on a strategically-important route. They could block transits for a long period of time, causing significant economic damage.”

The report also stressed that “crew education and identifying measures to back up and restore systems should be implemented” to reduce cyberrisk.

Looking Back For a Signal Forward
Some companies and governments have heeded the warnings and are identifying these indicators of attack. Preventative measures may lie in a maritime tool that had taken a backseat to the prevalence of GPS—a backup radio technology called Enhanced Long-Range Navigation (eLoran), which was developed in the United States in the mid-1990s. It has continental reach, emits strong signals via a low-frequency and relies on land-based transmitters that reveal a limited number of fixed positions. These once-limiting traits could be the automatic backup systems ships need in the event of jamming or spoofing.

On July 20, 2017, when the Department of Homeland Security Authorization Act (H.R. 2825) passed the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives, eLoran’s importance was stressed. The act includes a section titled “Backup Global Positioning System,” which features provisions for the U.S. Secretary of Transportation to initiate an eLoran system. H.R. 2825 proposes that eLoran be made available as a “reliable…positioning, navigation and timing system,” with the purpose of providing “a complement to, and backup for the Global Positioning System to ensure availability of uncorrupted and nondegraded positioning, navigation and timing signals for military and civilian users.”

Reuters this week reported that South Korea’s Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries is looking to establish the technology in a test form by 2019.

Time will tell if eLoran is the most practical and cost-efficient method to mitigate cyberthreats at sea. It seems if companies want to mitigate maritime cyberrisk now, the first steps would be to look to the technology of the past and turn on the radio.

Second Quarter Sees 1% Rise in Commercial Lines Rates

Closer attention to underwriting and losses has led to premium increases averaging 1% in the second quarter of 2017, continuing an upward trend this year.

The transportation sector, most notably auto-related exposures, is seeing the highest increases, up to 4%, according to a report released today by MarketScout.

“We now have two consecutive quarters of composite rate premium increases. Insurers are adjusting pricing as they should, based upon losses incurred, expense loads and targeted returns on equity,” Richard Kerr, CEO and Founder of MarketScout said in a statement.

By account size, organizations smaller to medium-size saw the highest premium increases.

Small accounts (under ,000 premium) increased from up 1% to up 2%, medium accounts (,001 – 0,000) went from flat to plus 1%, large accounts (0,001 – million) were unchanged and jumbo accounts (more than million) were down 1% compared to a drop of 2% the prior quarter.

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By coverage class, commercial property and inland marine adjusted from down 1% in the first quarter, to up 1% in the second quarter. Commercial auto rates rose from up 3% to up 4%. EPLI also went from up 1% to up 2%. Fiduciary adjusted downward to flat or no increase compared to up 1% in the prior quarter. All other coverage classifications were unchanged from the previous quarter, according to the report.

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By industry class, public entity rates moderated from up 1% to flat.

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Transportation risks experienced slightly lower rate increases with second quarter rates up 4% compared to 5% first quarter.

Telemetry Data: What Information Works Best?

Direct measurement of driving behavior, the heart of usage-based insurance (UBI), is the best way to match risk to premium. Insurers offer insurance discounts to safe drivers via UBI in order to acquire and retain the best risks. As a result, safer driving is promoted among these customers, which can amount to savings for organizations insuring drivers.

UBI is among the first attempts by insurers to adopt state-of-the-art technology for the underwriting process. Insurance companies and other service providers have struggled with some essential questions including those about the kind, resolution, frequency, and duration of data to collect, as well as what sensors to use. Indeed, many companies underwent independent efforts to establish data collection methodologies, generally resulting in a lack of any industry standard data “dictionary” or shared methodology for UBI. Still, it is possible to identify common approaches to collecting UBI data and how they are likely to evolve in the future.

Since the initial trials of UBI, the three cost factors—hardware, data, and analytics—have been the primary considerations as to how and what data elements each company collects. And even though prices of all three generally continue to decrease, the typical cost of setting up a full UBI program with filed predictive models remains significant.
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In the absence of industry-wide standards, it can be difficult to outline the breadth of the types of data collected. Even so, the following list covers most of the UBI data types found in the auto insurance market:

Verified mileage: This most basic mean of UBI is based on the well-validated assumption that more driving means more exposure to risk. Still, the advantage of verified mileage over declared mileage alone usually doesn’t justify a UBI operation for many companies.

Trip timing: A small advancement over verified mileage is trip timing. This goes beyond the pure mileage factor to estimate risk by studying when a driver is on the road, on the premise that some time slots tend to be riskier than others (Friday night, for example, with associated risk characteristics such as fatigue or drunk driving).

Driving events: Basic, yet powerful, behavioral aspects of driving are measured through collection of driving event data, mostly braking, accelerating, and turning. Sometimes absolute speeding events (exceeding 80 mph) and relative speeding events over the posted speed limit are recorded. Note, however, that onboard telematics units have relatively limited accuracy in collecting such data.

Full data log: As dongles came to market, they introduced improved collection capabilities, such as advanced GPS modules, CPU, accelerometers, OBDII, and large storage. With the falling cost of mobile data, companies started collecting full data logs and compressed them on dongles. Full data logs may provide endless analytics opportunities.

Smartphone data: The first technology to break the cost paradigm centering on device, data, and analytics is that operating from smartphones. Smartphones are also smart telematics devices owned by many, offering great collection and storage capabilities and data transfer at practically no additional cost. Unfortunately, smartphone data introduces many analytic challenges, including not knowing whether an insured is a driver or a passenger, whether the phone is turned off, and whether a driver operates an insured car.

What should we expect in the future? Against the background of rapidly changing technology and growing analytic complexity, future UBI is likely to rely on some of the following data elements:

Mobile data: As mobile apps become more sophisticated and reliable and as phone sensors become more accurate, more insurers are likely to use data obtained from mobile apps as a low-cost solution.

OEM data: Connected cars are growing in number (Gartner forecasts that by 2020, some 250 million cars will be connected). Data sets collected by connected cars aren’t as rich as those collected by dongles and provide more basic attributes (such as verified mileage, trip timing, and driving events). Nevertheless, they allow insurers to consume data more easily through data exchanges, where original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) take responsibility for the data collection process.

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Clearly, OEM capabilities will probably become even more advanced as manufacturers see more value from their investment.
Distribution of projected connected cars (source Business Insider)

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) data: ADAS can provide driving alerts and override driver inputs in certain situations. To date, these devices haven’t become part of the UBI ecosystem but can potentially contribute tremendous value to analytics for driving behavior and may play a significant role in the future.

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A final question about autonomous cars: Will they render UBI obsolete? Probably not, and for two reasons.

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First, penetration of autonomous cars and shared vehicles may well be slow and gradual. Second, many events currently measured by UBI will probably remain important when autonomous driving is used (for example, time and destination of journeys). UBI is likely here to stay.

Lessons from Distracted Driving Awareness Month

June is Distracted Driving Awareness Month, and while it is quickly drawing to a close, the message remains: Distracted driving is escalating, with 25% more vehicle accidents resulting from drivers talking or texting on cellphones. More cars on the road, especially during summer months, also translates to more accidents.

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Organizations with fleets should take note as motor vehicle crashes are the number-one cause of work-related deaths, accounting for 24% of all fatal occupational injuries, according to the National Safety Council (NSC). On-the-job crashes are also costly, with employers sustaining costs of more than ,500 per property damage crash and 0,000 per injury crash.

Zurich sums up NSC statistics:
Employers can and are being held liable for damages resulting from employee accidents. “We might expect an employer to be held liable for a crash involving a commercial driver’s license holder who was talking on a cell phone with dispatch about a work-related run at the time of an incident—especially if the employer had processes or a workplace culture that made drivers feel compelled to use cell phones while driving,” the NSC said.

The lines believed to exist between employment-related and personal or private life get blurred in some cases involving:

  • Cell phones owned by employees as well as employer-provided equipment
  • Vehicles that were employee-owned as well as employer-owned or leased
  • Situations where employees were driving during non-working hours or were engaged in personal phone calls

To protect themselves and their employees, the NSC recommended that organizations implement and enforce a total ban policy.

“The best practice is to prohibit all employees from using any cell phone device while driving in any vehicle during work hours or for work-related purposes. Regarding off-the-job hours, precedent has been set by lawsuits.

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Thus employers may want to extend their policies to cover off-the-job use of company-provided wireless devices, use of personally-owned devices that are reimbursed by the company, and use of devices in company-provided vehicles. All work-related cell phone use while driving should be banned 24/7,” the NSA advised.

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Companies should also pay attention to other common distractions that can lead to accidents, Zurich adds: