Category Archives: Property/Casualty

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The 2023 Hurricane Season Outlook

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Atlantic hurricane season officially began recently, kicking off a disaster season that will run from June 1 through November 30. According to predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 2023 hurricane season will consist of 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and one to four major hurricanes. This falls into a fairly average range, but “average” is a bit unusual under the conditions currently emerging around the season.

“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors—some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it—driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season,” NOAA reported.

Hurricane researchers at Colorado State University notably marked the opening of the season with a revised forecast. After initially predicting slightly below-average hurricane activity in 2023, the researchers increased their estimates. Now, CSU is essentially predicting an average hurricane season, but one that is above-average for what is expected to be an El Niño year.

The last three hurricane seasons have been controlled by La Niña, which typically leads to more hurricane activity. While El Niño would typically help reduce such activity, current warmer water temperatures could ultimately cancel out most of that effect.

“While we anticipate a robust El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropical and subtropical Atlantic have continued to anomalously warm to near-record levels,” CSU researchers explained. “El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, but the anomalous warmth in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven increase in vertical wind shear.”

CSU anticipates 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, which is right in line with the NOAA forecasts. However, CSU forecasters noted that this year’s outlook includes particular uncertainty due to these conflicting factors.

As the hurricane season gets underway, the following tips can help businesses update and strengthen natural disaster recovery plans:

Review your business interruption insurance. Business interruption insurance coverage plays a critical role in helping ensure complete recovery from a storm. BI coverage relies on accurately reported business values, however, and recent changes in property values, replacement and repair costs, and inflation all impact those current values. To avoid the risk of being severely underinsured, make sure your coverage has up-to-date valuations so that claims payouts will be robust enough to rebuild your business. Check out the May/June issue of Risk Management for more information about the importance of accurate business interruption values and best practices for preparing a business interruption claim. 

Update your current disaster recovery plan. It is crucial to keep your natural disaster recovery plan updated. Organizations have gone through massive change over the past few years, including different work locations due to hybrid or remote work, staffing changes, and new technology that may aid in emergency response. Ensure your organization’s disaster recovery plan reflects your current personnel, equipment, insurance policies and contacts, and make sure to distribute it among all current members of any emergency response teams or other key stakeholders.

Do a dry run. The only real way to know if your disaster recovery plan works is to put it to use, and you do not want to wait until a natural disaster is at hand to find out if it works. Practice various scenarios and have key players act out their roles to gauge the effectiveness of the plan and make changes accordingly.

Take preventative measures. To weather disaster response well, disaster preparation is essential. Take steps now to ensure the organization will be able to operate as smoothly as possible during or in the immediate wake of a disaster. Back up data offsite or in the cloud, verify that multiple employees know how to handle certain tasks and ensure you have backup options to contact employees if primary communication channels are interrupted.

For more information on hurricane preparation and natural disaster recovery, check out these other pieces from Risk Management:

Unprecedented Wildfires Devastate Canada, Leave Eastern U.S. Blanketed in Smoke

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Wildfire season has started two months early in Canada, and the devastating scale of the blazes is already unprecedented. Over 400 fires have caused roughly 10 million acres of burn damage so far, and have blanketed a wide swath of North America in smoke, creating orange skies and toxic levels of air pollution for communities all the way from Canada to the Southeastern United States. During the first week of June, New York had the worst air quality on Earth, and the air quality reached hazardous levels in Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. While it has begun to clear in the Northeast, the fires are ongoing and the air quality may continue to change in the days and weeks to come.

Find more answers to common questions about the wildfires below:

Where is all the smoke coming from?

Unfortunately, there is not just one answer for that, as there are multiple regional fires breaking out seemingly all over Canada and even the United States. However, the current air quality issues are coming from out-of-control wildfires in Quebec and Ottawa, Canada. There are also wildfires breaking out in at least six U.S. states, including Missouri, Kansas and New Mexico, but these do not appear to be involved in the air quality crisis.

According to the Associated Press and Canadian officials, the fires in Canada mark the start of what is expected to be Canada’s worst wildfire season ever due to drier ground than usual, which led the fires to accelerate very quickly.

“Right now, with the manpower we have, we can fight about 40 fires at the same time,” said Francois Legault, premier of Quebec, in an interview with Reuters. “But we have 150 fires, so we have to make sure that we focus where the problems are more urgent.”

In total, there are 425 active fires throughout Canada, according to Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre, and 232 are considered out of control. About 120,000 Canadians have been displaced from their homes due to emergency evacuations, with the most recent being from remote parts of Northern Quebec, according to Reuters. There are fires in nearly all of Canada’s provinces. The current wildfires in the U.S. have led to no evacuations thus far.

Why is the U.S. experiencing poor air quality?

To put it simply, the Northeastern region of the U.S. and the rest of the Eastern seaboard as far down as South Carolina are stuck in a slow-moving weather pattern that is carrying the smoke and smell from the Canadian fires southward. According to Politico, 13 U.S. states are under air quality alerts, impacting over 55 million people.

The AP noted that smoke from various Canadian fires has actually been showing up in parts of the U.S. since May, but with new fires recently breaking out in Quebec, the air quality has increasingly gotten worse in both Canada and the U.S. The hazy, orange-tinted skies and smoke smell along the eastern U.S. are expected to dissipate soon but may still be present through the weekend.

How do the fires impact businesses?

The fires affect certain industries more than others. Outdoor work like construction, sporting events, primary schools, park services and zoos are continuing to pay close attention to the air quality and have suspended outdoor operations accordingly while air quality is at such dangerous levels. Many professional sporting events have been cancelled. The New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies and Detroit Tigers have postponed baseball games throughout the week, with minor league baseball teams, soccer teams and WNBA teams following their lead.

During the course of the week, airports have been taking various precautions, with JFK, LaGuardia and Newark Liberty International Airport grounding flights, shutting down inbound flights and changing flight schedules. Similar precautions were taken at Philadelphia International Airport. Because this is an ongoing situation, these measures and flight operations remain in flux.

How do we manage the risk?

In terms of immediate action, experts recommend staying indoors, wearing a mask if going outside and keeping windows and doors closed until the air quality alerts are lifted. By the end of the week, New York City’s air quality is expected to be upgraded from “unhealthy” to “unhealthy for sensitive groups.” To find out about your specific area, visit AirNow.gov.

Looking longer-term, the current fires are a good reminder that natural disasters stretch far beyond hurricanes, flooding and tornadoes, especially as the climate continues to change. A recent study found that increases in burned forest area across the western U.S. and southwestern Canada over the last several decades can be linked to significant human-caused climate change.

For businesses, take this as a reminder to examine how your organization will handle fallout from wildfires, for example, reviewing your property insurance, business interruption coverage, disaster recovery plans or emergency communications procedures. The following resources from Risk Management can help organizations consider the many risks wildfires and other climate change-related extreme weather events pose to businesses and communities, and can help boost disaster preparedness for these devastating events.

More resources:

Recovery Tips in the Wake of Hurricane Ian and Hurricane Fiona

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Across the Caribbean, Florida, and up the Eastern seaboard to Atlantic Canada, communities are facing devastation from a recent—and ongoing—spate of mid-season hurricanes.

Ian follows right on the heels of catastrophic damage from Hurricane Fiona. In the Caribbean, 20% of residents in Puerto Rico are still without power after Hurricane Fiona, and the island took another pummeling from Hurricane Ian while it was a Category 4 storm. To the north, post-tropical storm Fiona inflicted catastrophic damage across parts of eastern Canada last week, causing devastating property damage and leaving hundreds of thousands of Canadians without power. While it is too early for complete estimates, ratings agency DBRS Morningstar projected the insured losses may fall in the range of $300 million to $700 million. According to Patrick Douville, DBRS’s vice president of insurance, “Fiona will likely be one of the largest catastrophic events in history for Atlantic Canada.”

Once it is safe to do so, risk managers will have considerable work to do to help their organizations and communities recover.

Dalton advised, “Additional steps businesses should take include engaging a professional claims preparation firm to help document the claim, preparing a daily timeline of impact and changes to operational activities, asking for a cash advance, and setting up a cost tracking code and/or general ledger account to capture incident-related expenses. If it’s a contingent loss, meaning operations are down because of physical damage to a customer or supplier, ask that customer or supplier send you documentation of their physical damage and ask them to communicate with you as much as possible.”

In the July/August cover story from Risk Management Magazine, “Hurricane Claims: Key Tips to Minimize Losses and Maximize Recovery,”attorneys Andrea DeField and Alice Weeks offered guidance on steps for risk and insurance professionals to take before, during and after hurricanes, including hurricane preparation and response checklists.

For organizations impacted by this season’s storms, the following post-storm tips can help risk professionals navigate disaster recovery and the claims management process:

Post-Storm Checklist

  1. Gather insurance policies and related insurance records. If your policy was destroyed or is lost, contact your insurance company or agent/broker to request a copy.
  2. Contact other business partners who may have copies of your insurance policies and records, such as attorneys and accountants.
  3. Give written notice to your broker and insurer immediately. Notice should provide the following basic information:
    1. Name and address of insured
    1. Location of loss
    1. Date and time of loss
    1. Contact name, phone and fax number
    1. Brief description of the loss
  4. Acquire copies of police or fire reports from your local police or fire department, if applicable. If individuals caused damage to the premises or stole anything in the wake of the disaster, obtain a separate police report about the damage or losses or request that additional information be added to the initial report.
  5. Secure vital records and ledgers. Ensure that your accounting department opens a separate general ledger for hurricane-related expenses.
  6. Collect photos or videos as proof of damage. Ensure these are taken before any mitigations are implemented so that they accurately capture the aftermath and losses.
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  7. To the extent possible, take steps to mitigate any further damage once the storm has passed.
  8. If you have not already, retain a forensic accountant to begin preparing your business income and extra expense loss calculations.
  9. Prepare a proof of loss. A proof of loss provides details identifying the property destroyed or damaged, and documents the amount of loss incurred. Generally, any information substantiating the claim can become part of your proof of claim, including photos, videos, receipts and records. Check with your insurer for the specific information required as some companies may ask for a detailed list of documents or require you to fill out a specific proof of loss form.
  10. Submit proof of loss, photos, and reports to your insurer. Be sure to check any time limitations on the submission of a proof of loss and request an extension, if needed.
  11. Assist with the insurance company’s investigation. Property policies typically allow the insurer to conduct a reasonable investigation of the claim and require the insured’s cooperation. This may be in a provision titled “Duties in the Event of Loss” that allows the insurer to interview the policyholder claimants in a process called an “examination under oath.” The policy may also require the insured to exhibit the property, take reasonable steps to protect it, and generally cooperate with the insurer’s investigation. The insurer’s requests for information must typically be considered reasonable, however. A policyholder’s failure to reasonably cooperate could be used by the insurer as a defense to coverage.

Proactive Tips for Businesses Facing Hail Damage Claims

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Last week, a severe thunderstorm unleashed massive hailstones in Alberta, Canada, damaging dozens of cars and unleashing potentially record-breaking hailstones the size of grapefruits. While the stones were notable, the storm was less of a rarity—indeed, hail is becoming increasingly common and increasingly costly as a natural catastrophe peril around the world. In 2020, Aon’s Global Catastrophe Recap identified hail damage in a severe thunderstorm as the driver of one of Canada’s costliest severe weather events on record. In 2021, insurers faced multiple billion-dollar loss events resulting from severe convective storms in the United States, with the greatest damage inflicted by hail that impacted the Plains, Midwest, Southeast and Northeast.

“Public perception often assumes that tornadoes drive the bulk of annual severe convective storm (SCS) damage costs,” said Steve Bowen, managing director and head of catastrophe insight on Aon’s Impact Forecasting team. “The reality is that large hail typically accounts for a majority of thunderstorm-related losses in North America during any given year.”

Further, North America is not alone in facing this peril, as hail also caused significant recent damage events in parts of Europe last year, struck Australia yesterday, and NOAA reports China, Russia, India and Northern Italy are all prone to damaging hailstorms.

As companies assess their natural disaster preparedness, there are some proactive measures that should be taken specifically for hail to leave organizations best positioned for any resulting insurance claims. Many commercial property policies contain provisions that any lawsuit against an insurer must be filed within one year following the “inception of loss,” otherwise it is barred. In other words, the “inception of loss” date starts the one-year clock ticking. The question then becomes, when exactly is that date? The Wisconsin Supreme Court hit this issue head-on in the case of Borgen v. Economy Preferred Ins. Co. In this 1993 opinion, the court determined that the phrase “inception of loss” in the context of hail damage essentially means “the date of the specific hail storm,” not “the date I discovered the hail damage.”

In 2018, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals took things a step further in Certain Underwriters at Lloyd’s of London v. Lowen Valley View, L.L.C. In that case, a hotel filed a lawsuit against its insurer for refusing to cover hail-related roof damage under a commercial property insurance policy. The 5th Circuit agreed with the insurer’s argument that: 1) several hail storms had struck the vicinity of the hotel in the several years preceding the claim; 2) only one of those storms fell within the relevant coverage period; and 3) the record lacked reliable evidence permitting a jury to determine which of those storms, alone or in combination, damaged the hotel. The 5th Circuit further rejected the hotel’s engineering report, which asserted the subject storm was the “most likely” cause of the damage, deeming it insufficient.

Taken together, these decisions can blindside businesses that believe their insurance policies will automatically respond in the event of hail damage.

Let’s say you operate a business in Plano, Texas, and have a commercial property policy with a renewal date of January 1, 2022. You’ve noticed some recent leaks over the past week in your 8-year-old roof. Based on this discovery, you enlist a roofing contractor to investigate further. You learn that the roof needs to be replaced due to the existence of hail damage, so you submit a claim to your insurance carrier. Now, consider Plano has had at least 11 significant hail strikes since your roof was installed, according to StormerSite: 

Storm Date                 Min. Hail Size Range (Max)
11/10/2021                         1.00”
4/23/2021                          1.00” (up to 2.00”)
5/18/2019                          1.00”
3/24/2019                          1.25” (up to 1.75”)
6/6/2018                            1.00”
4/6/2018                            1.50” (up to 2.00”)
4/21/2017                          1.75”
4/11/2016                          1.50” (up to 2.50”)
3/23/2016                          1.25” (up to 2.00”)
4/27/2014                          1.25”
4/3/2014                            1.75”

Based on the Borgen case, the relevant “inception of loss” date would be the most recent hail storm on November 10, 2021, and each specific storm prior to that. This would mean any claims potentially implicating the events on May 18, 2019, and earlier could be time-barred, assuming your prior insurance policies contain the one-year filing limitation mentioned above. Given the number of equivalent hail strikes over the course of those eight years, you will likely have an uphill battle under Lowen Valley View in attributing the recent April 2021 and November 2021 storms to a loss under your current policy.

Even if it were somehow possible to assign each item of roof damage to a particular hailstorm—and further that statute of limitations issues would not limit recovery almost entirely—the number of storms creates another problem. With 11 storms occurring over the life of your roof, the insurer could argue that would mean 11 separate occurrences, which in turn would mean having to go through 11 separate deductibles before you ever saw a single dollar of insurance proceeds. Depending on the amount of your deductible, this means recovery could be impossible as a practical matter.

Read together, these rulings put the onus on business owners in areas at risk for hail damage to proactively conduct at least annual inspections to determine the existence of any roof damage potentially attributable to a particular insurance policy. It further puts the onus on business owners to understand the insurance claim process, including seeking tolling agreements to extend the deadline for filing a lawsuit.