Category Archives: Insurance

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New Forecasting Method Predicts 75% Chance of El Nino in 2014

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There is a 75% chance of an El Niño event in 2014, according to an early warning report published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). The researchers used a new method that uses network analysis to predict weather systems up to a year ahead, instead of the usual six-month maximum of other approaches. The model successfully predicted the absence of El Niño in 2012 and 2013.

El Niño events are characterized by a warmer Pacific Ocean, which results in a disruption to the ocean-atmosphere system. This can lead to warmer temperatures worldwide, droughts in Australia and Southeast Asia, and heavy rain and flooding in parts of the U.S. and South America. If such an event occurred toward the end of 2014, the increased temperatures and drought conditions could persist through 2015.

The researchers suggested that their work might help farmers and government agencies by giving them more time to prepare and to consider investing in flood- or drought-resistant crops.

“Farmers might find it worthwhile to invest in drought- or flood-resistant varieties of crops,” Josef Ludescher and Armin Bunde told Businessweek. “A strong El Niño event in late 2014 can make 2015 a record year for global temperatures.”

The current highest record global temperatures date back to 1998, during the last strong El Niño. Given the continued increases in baseline temperature around the world, an El Niño event this year could lead to the record-breaking heat.

Last week, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center issued a similar warning. While the forecasters expect neutral conditions through the spring, a change in temperatures may “portend warming in the coming months.

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El Nino Phenomenon

Commercial Aircraft Use Jumps

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Higher demand from countries experiencing greater wealth is driving growth in the commercial airline sector, where passenger travel demand skyrocketed 396% from 1981 to 2012, according to a report from Deloitte. Utilization of commercial aircraft rose 15.4% during that period.

According to Deloitte’s “2014 Global Aerospace and Defense Industry Outlook,” Airline travel in China, India, the Middle East and other Asia-Pacific region countries contributed to an increased demand for leisure and business travel, also encouraged by lower fares and more available routes.

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In 2014, revenue growth is predicted at about 5%, similar to 2012 and 2013, Deloitte said.

Aircraft demand is also rising, as improvements such as fuel efficiency creates a need for upgrading and replacing aircraft.

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Commercial aircraft annual production levels are expected to increase by about 25%, the study found. Because there are few competitors in production, it is expected there will be more competition in the future, which could impact pricing. The aerospace supply chain will also be challenged to keep pace with the increased rate of production, Deloitte said.

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Department of Transportation Orders Investment in V2V Communication for Cars

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Car Accident

In this month’s Risk Management magazine, Katherine Heires discussed the risks of the Internet of Things —the increasing interconnectedness facilitated by a vast array of products incorporating smart technology and the internet to customize the user experience.

Automation in cars can control just about every component of the driving experience, right down to music, speed and temperature. But so much assistance can also lead drivers to tune out behind the wheel. “Lost in the debate around autonomous technology is that these features pull workload away from the driver and can result in under-arousal,” Bryan Reimer, who researches driver efficiency issues at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told the New York Times.

So carmakers are now developing technology to help keep drivers alert. According to the New York Times:

Both versions analyze the way a driver acts behind the wheel, taking note of over 70 parameters in the first few minutes of a drive. As the drive continues, the system continuously compares driver activity—including steering movement, steering speed and control operation—to the baseline. It also considers factors like crosswinds and road condition, so as not to be misled by differences in driver response that are related to weather or terrain.

A display on the dashboard provides a continuously updated analysis of attention level and elapsed time since the last stop. If driver inattention approaches a critical level, an alert is issued and a rest stop encouraged.

The government is also now turning to the Internet of Things to try to keep drivers safer. On Monday, the Department of Transportation announced plans to move forward with V2V technology that allows vehicles to communicate with each other in order to prevent collisions. Operating on a dedicated radio spectrum similar to WiFi, V2V systems utilize transponders that can communicate a car’s location, direction and speed up to 10 times per second to surrounding cars. Vehicles equipped with this technology can alert their drivers to potential collisions and some could automatically slow down to avoid accidents.

According to the DOT, V2V could prevent up to 80% of accidents that don’t involve drunk drivers or mechanical failure. “Vehicle-to-vehicle technology represents the next generation of auto safety improvements, building on the life-saving achievements we’ve already seen with safety belts and air bags,” said U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx. “By helping drivers avoid crashes, this technology will play a key role in improving the way people get where they need to go while ensuring that the U.S. remains the leader in the global automotive industry.”

Does Reputation Really Impact the Bottom Line?

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Last month, the American Customer Satisfaction Index released its latest figures for 190 major brands across all industries. The finance and insurance industries got some good news: satisfaction increased across the sector in 2013. But a careful look at some of the “worst” companies in the survey reveals a trend that may call into question some traditional wisdom on one key risk: reputation.

As Eric Chemi points out in Bloomberg Businessweek, a comparison between these satisfaction scores and 2013 stock returns – factoring in only publicly-traded companies with at least a full year of trading data – shows that customer service scores have no relevance to stock market returns. In fact, when Chemi added a regression line, he found that stock returns actually decreased as satisfaction scores went up.

Customer Satisfaction vs. Stock Returns

The slope is minimal, so there is no statistical relationship between the variables, but the trend itself is curious. Clearly, other factors account for the market success of a publicly traded company, and reputation may impact a company’s bottom line off the NYSE floor. This chart does illustrate, however, that good guys do tend to finish last in even the broadest groupings.

2013 Performance

So, if reputation doesn’t necessarily impact one major metric of a company’s success, is there a secondary market for being liked? Does reputation make or break other metrics, like net profits or market share? Given that many other studies seem to suggest that reputation does have a negative effect on stock prices, there is likely more at work here.