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Disaster Losses Down From 2012

Windstorm Xaver: Model shows a large area of high winds in the lower atmosphere pushing waters of the North Sea into the coasts around western Europe.

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Courtesy WeatherBELL Analytics.

Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters worldwide reached $44 billion in insured losses in 2013—down from $81 billion in 2012, according to a Sigma preliminary report by Swiss Re.

The study found that total economic losses from disasters in 2013 totaled $130 billion and 25,000 lives were lost. Hurricane Haiyan alone, which hit the Philippines in November with record-breaking winds, claimed more than 7,000 lives. In 2012 total economic losses were $196 billion and 14,000 lives were lost.

Flooding in central and Eastern Europe in June 2013 created overall losses of $18 billion, with insured losses estimated at $4 billion, according to the report.

In the United States, severe spring and autumn weather spawned thunderstorms and deadly tornadoes.

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While this caused devastation of personal and commercial properties and heavy losses to the insurance industry, the 2013 North Atlantic hurricane season proved to be benign, the report found.

Alberta, Canada in June experienced flooding caused by heavy rains. Insured losses were about $2 billion—the highest ever recorded in the country for any disaster.

The most costly insured catastrophe losses in 2013

Date Insured losses
(US $B)
Economic losses
(US $B)
Event Country
1 June 4.1 18.0 Floods Germany, Czech Republic
2 July 3.4 3.8 Hailstorm Andreas Germany, France
3 June 1.9 4.8 Floods Canada
4 May 1.8 3.2 Severe thunderstorms, tornadoes US
5 March 1.6 2.2 Thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail US
6 May 1.4 2.0 Severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, large hail US
7 October 1.4 2.7 Windstorm Christian Germany, Denmark
8 April 1.1 1.6 Snow storm, ice, tornadoes, heavy rains US
9 December 1.0 1.4 Windstorm Xaver UK, Denmark
10 January 1.0 1.5 Floods caused by Cyclone Oswald Australia

Swiss Re Sigma preliminary estimates

Weather Risks Often Overlooked

Unpredictable weather is a risk that can’t be put off or ignored. In fact, insurer payouts for weather-related catastrophes rose from $15 billion a year between 1980 and 1989 to a staggering $70 billion annually between 2010 and 2013, a study found.

While major weather events are a focus of businesses, small events can still have a big impact, according to The Weather Business: How Companies Can Protect Against Increasing Weather Volatility by Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty.

Even though weather volatility is shown to be rising globally, organizations are still failing to protect their revenue from the risks of changes in temperature, snowfall, wind levels, rainfall and too much sun, the report found. Changes in weather can also impact a number of industries including construction, energy, retail, tourism, food, distribution and transport.

Bad weather, however, is no longer an excuse for company stakeholders. Analysts, lending and rating agencies are increasingly looking at whether weather risks are included in a company’s risk management program, the study found.

Weather risk management can help companies hedge the risk posed by fluctuations in weather, similar to how companies already combat the threats of interest rate and foreign currency exchange movements, the report said.

Supertyphoon Haiyan Devastates Philippines

Supertyphoon Haiyan strikes the Philippines

Supertyphoon Haiyan hit the Philippines on Friday, leaving at least 10,000 residents dead and hundreds of thousands without reliable food, shelter or water. One of the strongest storms ever recorded, Haiyan’s winds surpassed 140 miles per hour, bringing record storm surges. The full extent of the damage remains uncertain, with communication and transportation severely restricted.

The World Bank has called the Philippines one of the most hazard-prone countries in the world. Closed roads and airports restricted aid efforts after Supertyphoon Haiyan, and communication failures posed some of the greatest challenges to both assessing and recovering from damage.

“Under normal circumstances, even in a typhoon, you’d have some local infrastructure up and some businesses with which you can contract,” Praveen Agrawal, the World Food Program’s Philippines representative and country director, told the New York Times. “Being as strong as it was, it was very much like a tsunami. It wiped out everything. It’s like starting from scratch” in terms of delivering the aid, he said.

The United Nations has set aside over $300 million to help with the country’s recovery from Haiyan over the next six months, and three dozen individual nations and international organizations have pledged financial and humanitarian assistance. The United States recalled thousands of sailors from shore leave back to the USS George Washington, a massive aircraft carrier currently docked in Hong Kong, to use its 80 aircraft to help deliver supplies and evacuate victims in the Philippines’ hardest-hit islands.

Yet with the broad scope of damage to critical infrastructure, the process has been slow. In the major city of Tacloban, for example, the traffic control tower at one of the country’s biggest airports was destroyed, forcing all aircraft to land by sight, further slowing distribution of food and water. Officials opened smaller airstrips, focusing on safely reopening transportation routes as the hundreds of thousands of evacuees continue to face extreme water shortage. This shortage further compounds the dangers authorities face in recovery, as health officials grow more concerned about water-borne diseases. Most notably, the lack of clean drinking and bathing water in crowded evacuation centers brings risk of diarrhea, leptospirosis and dengue.

Officials are looking forward while managing the catastrophic fallout. According to the Wall Street Journal:

Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima acknowledged that the destruction wrought by the disaster on an area that contributes 12.5% to gross domestic product could shave off as much as a full percentage point to economic growth next year, when the government targets GDP expansion of at least 6.5%. He is hopeful that the adverse effect on growth will be cushioned, if not offset, by the reconstruction spending.

“From a fiscal standpoint, we do have fiscal space to spend for reconstruction. The estimates are preliminary, but we need to invest significantly on infrastructure,” Mr. Purisima said.

The New York Times reported:

HSBC Global Research said that the typhoon probably destroyed half the sugar cane production areas in Leyte Province, and that all told, 3.5 percent of the nation’s sugar cane output was probably lost. It also warned of inflationary shocks to the Philippine economy in the coming months, as supply chains are disrupted.

But given the general health of the Philippine economy and the fact that the typhoon affected geographic areas and sectors like agriculture that are not major drivers of the nation’s output, HSBC said, “The economic impact will be limited.”

Citi Research estimated that infrastructure damage will probably run into billions of pesos, exceeding $70 million.

In Warsaw on Monday, some delegates at United Nations talks on a global climate treaty suggested that global warming was responsible for making Haiyan such a devastating storm. Naderev Saño, the chief representative of the Philippines at the conference, told the New York Times, “What my country is going through as a result of this extreme climate event is madness; the climate crisis is madness.”

Scientists cannot be certain of the overall impact of climate change on severe weather like hurricanes and typhoons, but have noted that more powerful storms will continue as the climate changes. With winds of at least 140 miles an hour, Typhoon Haiyan is considered one of the strongest storms to make landfall. “As you warm the climate, you basically raise the speed limit on hurricanes,” said M.I.T. atmospheric scientist Kerry A. Emanuel.

The powerful storm surges recorded are also likely part of a new reality in major storms. “When you strip everything else away, we’re seeing a general rise in sea level,” James P. Kossin, atmospheric scientist at the National Climatic Data Center, told the Times. “There’s no question that storm surge is going to be compounded.”

Florida Looking for NFIP Alternatives

Last week, Florida Insurance Commissioner Kevin McCarty announced that his office is in the process of developing guidelines for insurance companies to request approval to write primary flood insurance in the state. This announcement came just one day after Rebecca Matthews, McCarty’s deputy chief of staff, told the Florida Senate Banking and Insurance Committee that the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation (FLOIR) was in talks with various insurance companies regarding writing primary flood coverage in the state. These developments are in response to continuing concerns about escalating flood insurance rates due to the Bigger-Waters Act of 2012.

The Biggert-Waters Act of 2012 extended the National Flood Insurance Program by several years while also putting in place several reforms meant to make the program more solvent. One of those reforms was a phasing in of actuarial flood insurance rates over time.

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For many the increased premium will be significant, if not severe. In Florida, the biggest hit will be to homes built prior to 1974 in high risk flood zones. At last week’s hearing it was reported that some of those homes could see rates rise from 0 to ,000.

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Current owners of those properties will continue to receive subsidized rates, but those subsidies will discontinue once the property is sold thus hindering the Florida real estate market.

Florida officials hope that the private primary flood coverage can serve as a viable alternative to the NFIP by providing lower premium rates, but there are significant hurdles to overcome. Private insurers will likely be hesitant to cover properties that the federal government has deemed high risk and there are legitimate concerns about the lack of available data and information to properly underwrite the risk.

“The private sector has not written flood insurance because when you start a company you have to have a ‘me, too’ filing of something that already exists,” said Locke Burt, an owner of Security First Insurance. No such company currently exists in Florida.

Florida Rep. Bryan Nelson added that “the big problem we have is we don’t have enough information to base a decision on, and until we have expected-loss ratios, I don’t think the private sector is going to be ready to jump in.”

Another NFIP alternative being considered would be the creation of a Florida flood insurance pool. Sen. David Simmons, chairman of the Florida Senate Banking and Insurance Committee, signaled that this could be an option if the private market is unable to respond fast enough. The hope is that the pool could provide lower rates than the NFIP.

Florida officials also continue to push for delays in NFIP rate hikes.

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Gov. Rick Scott called on President Obama to halt the hikes. “The president signed the bill. He can have an impact by stopping this.”